Discovensco t1_ixe59m9 wrote on November 22, 2022 at 7:31 PM

10 years is the absolute best case, but I believe SpaceX could pull off an unmanned mission in the next 5 years. Maybe even deliver NASA's sample return mission plus cargo for a future manned mission. You can't have a manned mission without some kind of redundancy/safety margin. Maybe in 15 years it will be doable. I saw this prediction about the topic that you can check out

PerfectPercentage69 t1_ixec92r wrote on November 22, 2022 at 8:17 PM

Musk also claimed that they would land on Mars in 2022 lol

Also, just because a rocket is capable of landing on Mars doesn't mean you'll send humans on it. You would first need to verify that it can get there, land AND take off again and return. That will require several trips to Mars to verify and that's assuming everything goes according to plan and there's no setbacks.

Plus, he's basing his estimation on the aspirational performance of a rocket that doesn't exist yet. They've changed their design quite a bit already, which further invalidates his estimates.

kindslayer t1_ixf719q wrote on November 22, 2022 at 11:55 PM

Its better not to rush things. But with Musk's money and rocket company rapidly advancing, I think they could pull it off but not necessarily would. Life is at risk for a manned mission, and I think they can't just do that without assurance of safety.