10 years is the absolute best case, but I believe SpaceX could pull off an unmanned mission in the next 5 years. Maybe even deliver NASA's sample return mission plus cargo for a future manned mission. You can't have a manned mission without some kind of redundancy/safety margin. Maybe in 15 years it will be doable. I saw this prediction about the topic that you can check out
Discovensco t1_ixe59m9 wrote
Reply to Realistically speaking When do you think we will land humans on Mars? by EnaGrimm
10 years is the absolute best case, but I believe SpaceX could pull off an unmanned mission in the next 5 years. Maybe even deliver NASA's sample return mission plus cargo for a future manned mission. You can't have a manned mission without some kind of redundancy/safety margin. Maybe in 15 years it will be doable. I saw this prediction about the topic that you can check out