It's all but guaranteed at this point. Tesla should have taken their head start and used it to learn how to make vehicles with all the same capacity for quality that established manufacturers do. Instead, they wasted time disrupting industry for disruption's sake.

Teslas aren't really price-competitive, not when the whole picture is measured. Shoddy manufacturing practices means lots of parts that need to be replaced inside warranty windows. For example, we had a Tesla come in for window tinting at work, and one of the door panels wasn't properly installed - no big deal, we pop those out and in all the time so we can do the customer a favor. Except we couldn't do this one, because when the door panel was installed properly the door wouldn't close.

We work on lots of new and luxury vehicles. Teslas are built shoddy. The Chevy Bolt starts at like $27k if you want an economy EV, the Hyundai Ioniq at $41k if you want middle-of-the-road quality, and the Cadillac Lyriq starts at $58k if you want luxury from a brand that actually understands luxury. Their truck appears like it will be beaten to market by most of the competition, and there's just so many options out there or in the pipe.

What is Tesla's niche? They remind me of where Netflix was a year ago: the first-mover of a guaranteed-to-be-standardized-in-the-future technology, riding high on nothing but the fact that their revenues are high. No forward strategy but to assume everything will continue to be awesome.