Critics say those price revisions are a sign SMRs are heading down the same path as projects like Vogtle. For nearly a century, the nuclear power industry’s mantra was that building bigger plants would drive down costs. While existing plants aged and new construction withered, SMR companies began promoting a different philosophy, says David Schlissel, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Fiscal Analysis, claiming that constructing many small reactors would teach builders how to make them more cheaply.

But the evidence for progress is flimsy, says Schlissel, who notes that his 50-year career has spanned many a “nuclear renaissance” that fizzled. When that philosophy was applied in France, where dozens of reactors were built in the 1980s, costs still increased. Claims that “modularity” will help make construction more efficient are also suspect, he adds. The new Vogtle reactors involved nearly 1,500 “modular” components that were largely constructed offsite.

Schlissel also believes that NuScale’s current estimates are rosy because they rely on the approval of its newer design that uses less steel, one of the materials driving the cost increases. But regulators may not back that approach, he says. Towns should get out while they can, he advises, before costs climb higher still, and seek out alternatives like geothermal and battery storage. “Let the buyer beware,” he says.

NuScale says it stands by cost estimates based on its new design, and that it has long been in touch with regulators about the revisions. “We don't expect any surprises,” says José Reyes, NuScale’s CTO and cofounder. UAMPS spokesperson LaVarr Webb acknowledges the uncertainties of the design approval process, but says that the $89 price for power from the planned Idaho reactors is still competitive, given spiking natural gas prices and because always-on power can help stabilize the grid. Interest rate hikes and supply chain crunches have increased the costs of all power plants, he points out, not just those that split atoms.

Despite that optimism, officials in Morgan, Utah, a small town in the Wasatch Mountains north of Salt Lake City, decided to make a quick exit from the project. City manager Ty Bailey says he is worried about where the community’s energy will come from in the future due to the retirement of coal and the rise of electric vehicles. “It’s been so disruptive to the way things used to be,” he says. “The system was stable year after year. And policies changed that—no comment on the politics.”

This year, the city realized it had new alternatives to the rising costs of nuclear power. While the Inflation Reduction Act is expected to help offset the costs of the Idaho plant, it also includes funds to help rural communities start their own energy projects. Bailey wants the city to become more self-reliant, installing its own solar panels and batteries that reserve power overnight.

In this round, Morgan was the only defector, though another Utah city, Parowan, reduced its commitment from 3 MW to 2 MW—just enough to cover the loss of its coal power. But the new agreement with utilities, negotiated during a two-day meeting with UAMPS members this winter, sets the project under a ticking clock. It includes requirements that the price hold steady at $89 per megawatt-hour, and—most worrying to utilities that want the project to succeed—that the project be at least 80 percent subscribed by next year. If it doesn’t hit that threshold, towns will get a refund on most of their expenses so far.

At this point, the utilities have sunk relatively little of their own money into the project, but that will change in 2024 as the project begins to seek site-specific building approvals followed by actual construction. To get the project fully subscribed, the group is talking with utilities elsewhere in the Northwest, where NuScale is competing with other SMR startups, including the Bill Gates–backed TerraPower, which recently signed a feasibility agreement with PacifiCorp, a private utility. Webb of UAMPS says he is optimistic about where the negotiations are headed.

In Los Alamos, Garcia hopes that confidence is well placed. As the end date of the county’s coal power contracts approaches, he has a deal for 15 MW of “firm” energy from a combination of wind and solar at less than half the price of the nuclear project. But that’s only about a sixth of the county’s needs, and he doesn’t expect to see similar prices again.

Without nuclear, he worries the county would have to slow down its decarbonization plans. “We may have to actually invest in a natural gas unit to bridge the gap until something else comes along,” he says. For now, the county council voted to formalize a long-planned increase of their share of the NuScale plant’s power, from 1.8 MW to 8.6 MW. Garcia hopes it will help encourage other utilities to take a chance on sparking a nuclear renaissance.