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brunnock t1_ja7wwss wrote

Why aren't the defense contractors that build reactors for ships and subs building civilian reactors? The naval reactors are small and have been operating safely for decades. What am I missing?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_naval_reactors

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MpVpRb t1_ja8fvms wrote

Defense contracts are insensitive to cost

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Here4thebeer3232 t1_ja8n60j wrote

Naval reactors have the advantage to having the Navy as a customer, who is used to spending billions of dollars for single ships. So naval reactors get the best material, equipment, and operators that are borderline in a cult.They also aren't expected to be profitable.

Civilian reactors don't have any of those advantages, normal size or mini.

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MoirasPurpleOrb t1_ja9tlo3 wrote

I’d wager that the naval reactors also are highly classified and they would be extremely reluctant to let that technology out of their immediate control

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newworkaccount t1_jaaa21g wrote

The tech is so sensitive that recent deals with close Anglophone allies to share it with them made waves (gettit?). To be fair, that is "nuclear sub capability" as a generic package, though, and so surely encompasses many sensitive technologies beyond nuclear capabilities.

Though powering a nuke sub is VERY different from powering a power plant.

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547610831 t1_ja85p0x wrote

The specifications for a naval reactor are completely different than a power reactor. It simply wouldn't work well for this application.

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KickBassColonyDrop t1_ja9dg3e wrote

Regulations get in the way more than money. DoE's regulations on anything nuclear sometimes borders on insane.

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OutlandishnessOk2452 OP t1_ja7nlyo wrote

Full article :

Jordan Garcia, a deputy utilities manager in Los Alamos, New Mexico, is facing an energy crunch that is typical in the American West. For decades, the county-run utility relied on a cheap and steady mix of coal and hydroelectric power. But the region’s dams are aging and drought-parched, and its coal plants are slated to retire.

The county is aiming to fully decarbonize its grid by 2040, and the city has been tapping more solar lately, but batteries are arriving slowly, and Garcia worries about heat waves that strain the grid after the sun goes down. Wind power? He’d take more of it. But there aren’t enough wires stretching from the state’s windy eastern plains to the mesa-top community. “For us it’s pretty dire,” he says.

For the past few years, Garcia has been counting on a unique nuclear experiment to come to the rescue. In 2017, Los Alamos signed up to join a group of other local utilities as an anchor customer of the first small modular reactors, or SMRs, in the US, created by a company called NuScale. The design, which calls for reactors only 9 feet in diameter, had never been built before, but the initial cluster planned in Idaho Falls, Idaho, was promised to be much cheaper than a full-scale reactor and to offer affordable carbon-free energy 24/7.

NuScale Power ModuleTM Courtesy of NuScale Power To Garcia, this felt like a homecoming. Los Alamos, a town with the motto “Where discoveries are made,” is the birthplace of the atom bomb, and experimental reactors ran not far from downtown for much of the 20th century. But it had never actually used nuclear power to keep the lights on.

This month, Los Alamos and other local utilities across the West were facing a weighty decision: whether to pull the plug on their nuclear dream. NuScale had informed members of the group, Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems, or UAMPS, that the estimated costs of building the six 77-MW reactors had risen by more than 50 percent to $9.3 billion. For Garcia, that translated into a jump in the cost of energy from $58 to $89 per megawatt-hour.

The price jump was not rooted in the arcana of nuclear physics, but the mundane details of big construction projects: copper wire up 32 percent, steel piping up 106 percent. Higher interest rates made everything more expensive over the course of construction, which is scheduled to wrap up in 2030. Without extra subsidies from the new Inflation Reduction Act—on top of $1.4 billion already committed to the project by the US Department of Energy—the price to energy users in places like Los Alamos would have doubled.

The sticker shock put the small towns in a tricky position. The higher price means towns can choose to walk away from their contracts. But in a region where power officials are keenly aware of a future that includes more heat waves and drought, and less coal power, some see few alternatives for quickly replacing that always-on electricity. The new price tag may put the project on track to exceed the cost of renewables and natural gas, but the past year’s supply chain disruptions have made nuclear more appealing, showing just how volatile energy prices can be, regardless of the source.

Some utilities say the SMRs look like their only option for “firm” power that can be ramped up or down as needed. Other towns worry that exiting the project could stomp on the first green shoot of a nuclear energy renaissance, causing a “domino effect,” as an official in Hurricane, Utah, put it at a recent council meeting. The project’s power output is only 20 percent subscribed, and UAMPS says it will need to reach 80 percent for planning and construction to proceed next year.

Many a “nuclear renaissance” has fizzled.

NuScale’s reactor is not so much a revolution in the way nuclear energy is produced, but in the way it is built. The design calls for a light water reactor—essentially the same atom-splitting engineering found within the majority of big nuclear power plants around the world. While the costs of operating these large designs are often reasonable, utilities spend decades paying off enormous upfront construction costs, which consistently soar far over budget. Only two reactors are being built in the US: a pair of 1100-MW units at the Vogtle plant in Georgia, now seven years delayed and $20 billion over their $14 billion budget.

NuScale hopes its smaller reactors can avoid that fate. They are small enough to manufacture in factories, assembly-line-style, and ship to project sites on trains or trucks. Requiring less land and water should make it easier to find suitable places to put them. Last month, the company was the first of dozens of companies working on SMRs to have a design approved by US regulators. That makes NuScale first in the race to leap from a “paper napkin” reactor, as critics sometimes deride SMRs, to a real one, though the Idaho project involves a revised design that will need its own approval.

The project has hit roadblocks before. It began with 36 utilities signed on, but that number has fluctuated and dropped to 27 last year. In 2020, several municipal utilities dropped out in response to a construction delay and cost increases. Some later rejoined the project after the US Department of Energy upped its commitment to offset some of the costs.

Critics say those price revisions are a sign SMRs are heading down the same path as projects like Vogtle. For nearly a century, the nuclear power industry’s mantra was that building bigger plants would drive down costs. While existing plants aged and new construction withered, SMR companies began promoting a different philosophy, says David Schlissel, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Fiscal Analysis, claiming that constructing many small reactors would teach builders how to make them more cheaply.

But the evidence for progress is flimsy, says Schlissel, who notes that his 50-year career has spanned many a “nuclear renaissance” that fizzled. When that philosophy was applied in France, where dozens of reactors were built in the 1980s, costs still increased. Claims that “modularity” will help make construction more efficient are also suspect, he adds. The new Vogtle reactors involved nearly 1,500 “modular” components that were largely constructed offsite.

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OutlandishnessOk2452 OP t1_ja7nqml wrote

Critics say those price revisions are a sign SMRs are heading down the same path as projects like Vogtle. For nearly a century, the nuclear power industry’s mantra was that building bigger plants would drive down costs. While existing plants aged and new construction withered, SMR companies began promoting a different philosophy, says David Schlissel, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Fiscal Analysis, claiming that constructing many small reactors would teach builders how to make them more cheaply.

But the evidence for progress is flimsy, says Schlissel, who notes that his 50-year career has spanned many a “nuclear renaissance” that fizzled. When that philosophy was applied in France, where dozens of reactors were built in the 1980s, costs still increased. Claims that “modularity” will help make construction more efficient are also suspect, he adds. The new Vogtle reactors involved nearly 1,500 “modular” components that were largely constructed offsite.

Schlissel also believes that NuScale’s current estimates are rosy because they rely on the approval of its newer design that uses less steel, one of the materials driving the cost increases. But regulators may not back that approach, he says. Towns should get out while they can, he advises, before costs climb higher still, and seek out alternatives like geothermal and battery storage. “Let the buyer beware,” he says.

NuScale says it stands by cost estimates based on its new design, and that it has long been in touch with regulators about the revisions. “We don't expect any surprises,” says José Reyes, NuScale’s CTO and cofounder. UAMPS spokesperson LaVarr Webb acknowledges the uncertainties of the design approval process, but says that the $89 price for power from the planned Idaho reactors is still competitive, given spiking natural gas prices and because always-on power can help stabilize the grid. Interest rate hikes and supply chain crunches have increased the costs of all power plants, he points out, not just those that split atoms.

Despite that optimism, officials in Morgan, Utah, a small town in the Wasatch Mountains north of Salt Lake City, decided to make a quick exit from the project. City manager Ty Bailey says he is worried about where the community’s energy will come from in the future due to the retirement of coal and the rise of electric vehicles. “It’s been so disruptive to the way things used to be,” he says. “The system was stable year after year. And policies changed that—no comment on the politics.”

This year, the city realized it had new alternatives to the rising costs of nuclear power. While the Inflation Reduction Act is expected to help offset the costs of the Idaho plant, it also includes funds to help rural communities start their own energy projects. Bailey wants the city to become more self-reliant, installing its own solar panels and batteries that reserve power overnight.

In this round, Morgan was the only defector, though another Utah city, Parowan, reduced its commitment from 3 MW to 2 MW—just enough to cover the loss of its coal power. But the new agreement with utilities, negotiated during a two-day meeting with UAMPS members this winter, sets the project under a ticking clock. It includes requirements that the price hold steady at $89 per megawatt-hour, and—most worrying to utilities that want the project to succeed—that the project be at least 80 percent subscribed by next year. If it doesn’t hit that threshold, towns will get a refund on most of their expenses so far.

At this point, the utilities have sunk relatively little of their own money into the project, but that will change in 2024 as the project begins to seek site-specific building approvals followed by actual construction. To get the project fully subscribed, the group is talking with utilities elsewhere in the Northwest, where NuScale is competing with other SMR startups, including the Bill Gates–backed TerraPower, which recently signed a feasibility agreement with PacifiCorp, a private utility. Webb of UAMPS says he is optimistic about where the negotiations are headed.

In Los Alamos, Garcia hopes that confidence is well placed. As the end date of the county’s coal power contracts approaches, he has a deal for 15 MW of “firm” energy from a combination of wind and solar at less than half the price of the nuclear project. But that’s only about a sixth of the county’s needs, and he doesn’t expect to see similar prices again.

Without nuclear, he worries the county would have to slow down its decarbonization plans. “We may have to actually invest in a natural gas unit to bridge the gap until something else comes along,” he says. For now, the county council voted to formalize a long-planned increase of their share of the NuScale plant’s power, from 1.8 MW to 8.6 MW. Garcia hopes it will help encourage other utilities to take a chance on sparking a nuclear renaissance.

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Infernalism t1_ja7opfb wrote

>This month, Los Alamos and other local utilities across the West were facing a weighty decision: whether to pull the plug on their nuclear dream. NuScale had informed members of the group, Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems, or UAMPS, that the estimated costs of building the six 77-MW reactors had risen by more than 50 percent to $9.3 billion. For Garcia, that translated into a jump in the cost of energy from $58 to $89 per megawatt-hour.

Gasp! A nuclear project with sudden and totally unexpected time/cost overruns?! Who could possibly have seen this coming?

Imagine how much solar/wind/battery tech could have been built and improved with all those billions and the last 6 years.

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BurningPenguin t1_ja7q2zl wrote

Ah, prepare yourself for the "what if there's no sun or wind" brigade.

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Infernalism t1_ja7qqkv wrote

This is why I included the 'battery' part in there.

But, yes, they're going to pretend like battery tech isn't increasingly viable.

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bitfriend6 t1_ja904l3 wrote

That is actually a problem 12 hours a day, when there isn't sun and wind farms tend to harm birds which is why they are banned in areas with strict enviomental laws, such as California. Altamont Pass still gets lawsuits despite being one of the US's most pioneering wind projects, and it has noticably hurt the bird population. Granted birds aren't people but they might as well be in the context of enviomental litigation.

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BurningPenguin t1_ja94im3 wrote

The bird thing is such a dumb argument. There are ways to lower the impact those wind farms have. Which btw is quite low compared to other causes of dead birds.

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gerkletoss t1_jab3mio wrote

>Imagine how much solar/wind/battery tech could have been built and improved with all those billions and the last 6 years.

Looking at the subsidies, I'd say less than what happened in our timeline.

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Kreebish t1_ja7vqqd wrote

Most of these cost overruns are not caused by inflation but corporate greed just like how the price went up on eggland's Best eggs even though they did not have to do any culling.

fortunately these are all estimated costs and have not actually spent the money and so we can still spend on a solar, wind and battery but I have to say the main benefit is developing this new technology so that we can use it in our colonies off world that we must have as survival of the species requirement. At this point there is no one doing the damage and the Cascade is inevitable. I sincerely hope I'm wrong but that would require the science of climate change to also be and it just doesn't look like it is. We are in the middle of an Extinction event and this planet will likely be a corpse within the next hundreds of years

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Alimbiquated t1_ja8u46p wrote

In other words, there is no current need or use for this technology.

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MpVpRb t1_ja8g7hh wrote

There are two factors at play here

First, even when engineers try to make honest estimates, unexpected difficulties arise that raise costs

Second, managers often knowingly make dishonest estimates to win contracts

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aquarain t1_jaadase wrote

Here's the key problem with all of these "new nuclear" plans:

They cost a boatload of money up front, which they can't finance unless they get purchase commitments from utilities for sale of their output at above current rates. Because in the best hypothetical marketing case (pre-overruns) they are still the most costly way to generate electricity known to Man.

Consumers are already aware they can generate their own energy cheaper than their utility's current generation and transport with rooftop solar+battery, and those costs go only down. The savings is more than enough to pay for the interest on the financing too.

If utilities keep buying the most expensive generation available they will soon find they have nobody to sell it to because their customers already solved that problem for themselves and don't need them anymore.

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OutlandishnessOk2452 OP t1_ja7nz1d wrote

TLDR : NuScale Power's small modular reactor (SMR) project is facing a dilemma as the estimated costs of building six 77 MW reactors have risen by more than 50% to $9.3bn. However, some utilities believe that the SMRs are their only option for “firm” power that can be ramped up or down as needed. While the new price tag may put the project on track to exceed the cost of renewables and natural gas, the past year’s supply chain disruptions have made nuclear more appealing, showing just how volatile energy prices can be.

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billdietrich1 t1_ja8nz1f wrote

> the past year’s supply chain disruptions have made nuclear more appealing, showing just how volatile energy prices can be.

Um, a tech that requires many years or a decade to build, and then 20-40 years to operate to be profitable, is a good fit for "volatile energy prices" ?

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bitfriend6 t1_ja90rjf wrote

Yes because "energy" in this context means "supply chain from Saudi Arabia and Russia, as controlled by 3 companies". It only takes one major war to wipe our global oil supply and Russia is doing that. Or Covid. Nuclear is resistant to these markets, especially now that Biden is having us refine our own Uranium instead of importing it from Russia. A high-cost, capital-intensive object is at least a known quantity versus Iran bombing Saudi oil terminals again, Russia opening a second front in Finland, or Venezuela invading Colombia. The international supply chain that delivers oil into our gas tanks is extremely fragile versus in-house nuclear development.

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billdietrich1 t1_ja91cts wrote

Distributed, cheap, steadily-getting-cheaper renewables and storage are even better ways to get "known quantities" that Russia can't affect.

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547610831 t1_ja7oq8o wrote

The problem here is that any first of a kind technology is going to cost a huge amount of money. If you're actually serious about a technology then you've got to be willing to endure a lot of cost overruns and schedule delays on the first few plants. If you're just going to cancel the whole program because the first plant is a cluster fuck then don't even bother.

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Infernalism t1_ja7pjcw wrote

The problem is that every single nuclear project has been plagued with these cost and time overruns. Even standard and well understood nuclear plants are seeing time overruns in the decades and cost overruns that end up doubling the price. Or more.

For standard nuclear plants. Ones we've been building for decades and decades.

Meanwhile, solar and wind and battery tech continues to improve steadily even though we're seeing regular tech improvements that should, logically, mean that it'd cost more. But, it doesn't. It lowers the price on renewables. Constantly.

Is it any surprise people are leery as fuck about investing in nuclear?

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547610831 t1_ja7qf13 wrote

That's not really true at all. Lots of nuclear plants were built in reasonable time frames and budgets. A new nuclear plant used to only cost a Billion dollars (yes, that's adjusted for inflation. The problem is that anti-nuke forces took hold in many governments (especially after TMI and Chernobyl) and they made the regulatory environment completely untenable. Plants that were virtually complete had to be torn apart and rebuilt, many were just abandoned because the cost of the new regulations was more than the cost of the original plant. No industry can ever survive that way. And that was the whole point. The people who make these regulations don't want nuclear to survive. It was just a backhanded way of killing nuclear without an outright ban.

https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/historical-construction-costs-of-global-nuclear-power-reactors

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Infernalism t1_ja7qmk1 wrote

> The problem is that anti-nuke forces took hold in many governments (especially after TMI and Chernobyl) and they made the regulatory environment completely untenable.

Because safety is something that totally should be flexible when it comes to nuclear reactors.

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547610831 t1_ja7xh0f wrote

  1. Just because a regulation exists doesn't mean it actually improves safety. Quite frankly a lot of nuclear regulations DECREASE safety. They're not really about safety at all, they're just a way to increase costs. Most of the cost isnt new safety decices, it's just mountains of extra paperwork.

  2. The perception of risk regarding nuclear is just completely askew. Thousands of chemicals we use are also known carcinogens and can be handled with minimal regulations. Chemical leaks are a daily occurrence to the point they rarely make the news. The regulations against radiation are thousands of times stricter than those against most chemical carcinogens. Even the worst case scenario with nuclear you're talking tens of deaths. Lots of chemical spills have killed thousands and they kill hundreds of thousands in terms of long term exposures. Global warming will kill millions or even tens of millions. The risk from nuclear is miniscule in comparison to the alternatives.

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BurningPenguin t1_ja87kr2 wrote

> Quite frankly a lot of nuclear regulations DECREASE safety

Name one

> Chemical leaks are a daily occurrence to the point they rarely make the news.

Maybe in the US...

> The regulations against radiation are thousands of times stricter than those against most chemical carcinogens

Again, something that might be a US thing

> Even the worst case scenario with nuclear you're talking tens of deaths. Lots of chemical spills have killed thousands and they kill hundreds of thousands in terms of long term exposures.

Oh, so nuclear accidents have no long term effect now. Nice.

Sure, nuclear appears to be quite safe nowadays, but let's not pretend that a major accident has less consequences than chemical spills. I live in Bavaria and our mushrooms are still radioactive.

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547610831 t1_ja88cn7 wrote

>I live in Bavaria and our mushrooms are still radioactive.

Everything is radioactive my guy. If you brought a pallet of bananas into a nuclear plant it would have to be disposed of as nuclear waste due to the radiation level. Regardless, Chernobyl killed less people than coal plants do every day. And it's much less an indictment of nuclear as it is Communism and the Soviet Union. No reactor like that is currently operating.

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BurningPenguin t1_jabfv66 wrote

So, you can't name a regulation that decreases safety. Got it.

Also, news flash: Mushrooms and wild animals aren't bananas. And I'm quite sure even bananas don't contain a considerable amount Cesium-137.

>No reactor like that is currently operating.

Almost like those "unsafe" safety regulations are working as intended.

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hobbers t1_ja9hki0 wrote

Safety or risk mitigation should always be quantified.

About 40k - 50k people die every year in automobile collisions. We could mitigate most of that, but we don't, because we judge it not worthy.

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Infernalism t1_ja9hnfo wrote

The car companies judge it not worthy. It's like the people dying have any say in the matter.

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hobbers t1_jaaec5u wrote

We don't have legislation requiring cars to be safe enough to not kill 40k - 50k people a year. That's all of us together deciding it's not worthy.

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billdietrich1 t1_ja8nf8f wrote

One problem is that you're trying to compete in a market where costs of renewables and storage decrease every year. You can't just hold steady with cost and schedule, you have to be something amazing. And steam-based nuclear never will be that.

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547610831 t1_ja8nzq6 wrote

Nuclear costs would drop significantly if we would let them. Renewable and batteries won't drop forever as well. Regardless, it's vitally important to have diversity of supply. The more sources of power you have the more resilient your grid will be.

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billdietrich1 t1_ja8p28k wrote

Nuclear is costly even in countries that are very much in favor of it.

We can have diversity while only using renewables and storage; we have a wide range of types of them, with more being developed.

I wouldn't bet against another few decades of cost decreases in renewables and storage. Graphene, organics, new catalysts, bio-fuels (not corn ethanol), flow batteries, all show a lot of promise.

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547610831 t1_ja8ql85 wrote

Not really. The UAE built their new reactors quickly and cheaply. Japan used go build reactor incredibly fast, but unfortunately has turned sour on nuclear.

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billdietrich1 t1_ja8tvv7 wrote

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_the_United_Arab_Emirates#Barakah_nuclear_power_plant , it looks like the first reactor was scheduled to produce in 2017, but didn't start producing until mid-2020. That's 8 years after start of construction. Price tag for 4 reactors is somewhere from $20 to $30 billion. I wouldn't call that either quickly or cheaply.

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547610831 t1_ja8u7ik wrote

For 4 reactors that's pretty darn good. If we could build a new reactor for 5 Billion there would be a dozen under construction right now.

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billdietrich1 t1_ja8uqrf wrote

That time was for the first reactor, not four. And it's one plant, not four plants.

Sure, a non-democratic govt will be able to do things faster and thus cheaper. No lawsuits, no loss of focus or change of policy. But even they can't do nuclear quickly and cheaply.

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bitfriend6 t1_ja8zuo5 wrote

We can't have diversity with just renewables and storage, because the large reservoirs and battery vats required for it won't be built or require so much material it invalidates whatever emissions savings went into it. Wind and solar are nice to have, but all of them exist with gas as baseload power and gas can only be replaced by nuclear or coal. Since we're theoretically banning coal, this leaves nuclear as a required element.

China has already discovered this with their new next-gen coal plant construction program. PV-onlyism won't work. And really, why should we constrain ourselves that way anyway?

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billdietrich1 t1_ja9203c wrote

We have or will have N types of renewable generation (hydro, solar PV, solar-thermal, solar-hydrogen, wind, wave, tidal, geothermal, maybe biomass, maybe some kind of engineered plant things generating electricity, who knows) and M types of storage (pumped-hydro, thermal, P forms of chemical battery, hydrogen, gravity, flywheel, bio-fuel, compressed-air, who knows). Fairly soon they will give us costs lower than nuclear, and far less climate damage than fossil. We won't be "constraining" ourselves much by using a mix of the best choices, instead of trying to keep an also-ran tech such as nuclear on life-support.

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aquarain t1_ja89pv3 wrote

The problem here is that the technology development and engineering required to stand up a solar plant is:

Step one. Throw the panel on the ground.

Step two. Power comes out.

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billdietrich1 t1_ja8np02 wrote

Well, you do need inverters and grid-tie and space and permits etc.

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aquarain t1_jaapec6 wrote

I too get pedantic sometimes.

"Solar Plant" can include RV applications where the direct current is used... Directly. Without telling anybody. Like a nasty off grid Mad Max rebel.

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547610831 t1_ja8b5cd wrote

Uhh, no. There's Billions spent to engineer better solar panels. The cost of solar 20 years ago was 10x what it is now.

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Jealous-Elephant t1_jaamt6u wrote

These will never get financed. Nuclear isnt happening anytime soon

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Beepeedi t1_ja8yx41 wrote

These articles should mention the average cost per MWH of solar and onshore wind energy, which is now $68 and $53. And that is without the extra government subsidies that nuclear projects receive. (2021, ourworldindata.org)

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bitfriend6 t1_ja91oa2 wrote

This is just early adopter problems, prices will come down as SMRs become mass produced. The high cost reflects the actual cost of decarbonizing, which is much higher than most people give credit. You can't just buy your way to success with climate change, and all the cost overruns are what it actually takes to manufacture something new. The same goes for any other important capital project, like a railroad or a canal. These things aren't cheap, and people shouldn't pretend like the price they are offered is the actual price they'll pay. In return, this avoids all of the problems inherent with large PV and battery farms when they reach their end-of-life, a problem all nuclear reactors are uniquely required to account for that other power modes don't.

This also happens in the same state that used to house America's largest coal power plant, and is adjacent America's largest oil producing state. These people aren't hippies in the first place, and they aren't fiscal conservatives either.

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zeefox79 t1_jaa88km wrote

What are the 'inherent problems' with solar and batteries at end of life?

Batteries are profitable to recycle, while the cost to recycle pv panels is very low.

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