Submitted by brohymn80 t3_z2f6cv in technology
Zukiff t1_ixgjwgl wrote
Reply to comment by [deleted] in TSMC Racing to 1nm, Investing $32 Billion for Fab: Report by brohymn80
The difference here is not just fancy toys. Numbers alone are overwhelming. The Chinese Navy is already bigger in terms of number of ships vs the US navy. Since the Americans cannot bring their entire navy to Asia just to defend Taiwan due to global obligation on top of that most of the Chinese ships are modern ones while the Americans are close to obsolete having to replace most of their fleet in the next few years and the Chinese have an extremely large advantage in the region. The worst part is the Chinese are outbuilding the Americans by more than 4:1 ships. Almost Half their navy was built from 2018. The Chinese realize the Americans wants to seek conflict with them when Trump started his trade war and started crazy increase in naval built up. Now they are doing the same with the airforce. Even if they somehow loss round 1 to the Americans, they will win the next one
The Chinese missile system which is generally considered more advanced than what the american currently have basically means the aircraft carriers are pretty much useless making it even harder for them to fight the Chinese.
There is general consensus now that the Americans won't be joining any sort of conflict in the Taiwan straits especially after seeing how they abandoned Ukraine. Anyone who still thinks the Americans will defend Taiwan is probably living in a different reality. Its even more apparently when they are switching to telling Taiwan to buy weapons for urban warfare and stopped selling/transferring weapons that would prevent Chinese from landing a force in Taiwan.
[deleted] t1_ixgltjy wrote
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Zukiff t1_ixh3k2s wrote
Those numbers from the US are totally out of context. Yes the Chinese have far fewer missiles compared to the US overall but they have far more in Asia. If the US can summon the full might of their entire forces to fight China in Asia, yes they will probably win. In reality they can't, in the real world the US have global obligations and can only send a portion to a single theatre at any one time and that's not accounting for ships that are under maintenence which at any one time almost half their carriers are under servicing. That's why the US war games keep coming up with a result of US losing
Finally on the defence Treaty its no longer in effect because the Americans no longer recognize Taiwan as a country and the most ironic part, its a Treaty with China not Taiwan, might want to remember that, the country of Taiwan doesn't exist. The Republic of China does and its constitution states that mainland China is part of its territory
Sip_py t1_ixh7p3w wrote
It's funny you pose this as purely US v China when all of our allies would likely take up the fight seeing the strategic technological importance of Taiwan to the entire world.
Zukiff t1_ixh9st3 wrote
Which ally? I'm from Singapore, my govt already told you to go F off we're not taking sides. As far as we're concern this is a civil war and you clowns should stop causing trouble in the region. And we are one of you biggest "ally" in the region. All of Southeast Asia is pretty much doing the same. Most of them are actually more pro China than American.
That leaves Korea and Japan. Korea isn't going to fight its biggest trading partner especially when North Korea is waiting. The Japanese aren't keen on helping either. 74% of Japanese are against their govt taking actions over Taiwan and Japanese constitution does not allow them to do so. So they would actually need to literally change their constitution first.
Who else Mongolia? They are not American ally and they don't even have a navy. Australia? They are too far away and have no means to project power all the way to Taiwan. There's no one else in the region that will help you fight China.
dudeedud4 t1_ixhp725 wrote
Not Asian countries, we're talking western allies like Europe...
Zukiff t1_ixjey3r wrote
So you mean to tell me that NATO which is right next to Ukraine and has refused to help them fight Russia which is by all measure a weaker nation than China will somehow sail halfway around the world to defend Taiwan? I want to know what you're smoking right now
dudeedud4 t1_ixjgpi7 wrote
At no point did I say NATO...
Zukiff t1_ixjrcz7 wrote
Which one of their Western Allies in Europe isn't part of NATO? LOL. I really want to know that because NATO has more members than EU
dudeedud4 t1_ixjrmk8 wrote
You do realize that being in NATO doesn't mean they'll automatically attack if one NATO country attacks, right? Only if someone attacks a NATO country specifically.
Zukiff t1_ixk2452 wrote
Yes I know but you're the one telling me western Allies will come halfway around the world to fight China. I'm asking which one? Like I said, NATO don't even dare fight Russia which by all measure is a weaker nation than China, in Ukraine, which is literally right next to NATO nations. What makes you think members from that same group will sail halfway around the world to confront an even more powerful nation? I really want to understand the logic behind that
dudeedud4 t1_ixk2cd4 wrote
???? NATO is literally just making this a proxy war right now, and it's working. Why do YOU think this wouldn't happen?
[deleted] t1_ixk6s2h wrote
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Sip_py t1_ixl3fjl wrote
I guess Australia doesn't exist at all. And yeah not all NATO countries will participate but do you really believe all European countries wouldn't side with the US and defend Taiwan? You think Germany or the UK is going to be okay with China invading Taiwan?
Zukiff t1_ixl68sw wrote
Do you even know how far Australia is from Taiwan? Australia also doesn't have power projection last I check they don't have any aircraft carrier and their ships will need to be resupplied somewhere. Southeast Asia have been pretty clear about not taking sides, they won't be able to resupply from there. And finally the current australian govt is trying to mend ties with China. Give it 2-3 months and you will see them making very different stance on the issue
China is Germany's biggest trading partner, their chancellor is the first European leader to visit China to improve ties immediately after Xi confirm his 3rd term. Even if they disagree, they aren't going to disagree hard. Besides, Germany has no power projection. To take part in a recent military exercise in Australia their fighters needed to refuel 5 times just to fly here. You really think they will fight China?
As for the UK, since they are nothing but US lackey I expect them to follow whatever US is doing. Which is nothing. The US dare not fight Russia what makes you think they will fight China which by their own assessment, they will lose. Furthermore to reinforce this point, the US have already moved most of their more advanced hardware like F35 out of the 1st island chain to the 2nd island chain defence to avoid Chinese missile system. They have no capacity to defend Taiwan in asia.
While I'm sure they will try to do something. Like I stated in my last post what are they able to do? Economic sanctions doesn't work and no one even their European Allies are going to support this, direct military means likelihood of losing and providing military support is next to impossible because of Chinese missile system and Taiwan being an island.
this_barb t1_ixhbqax wrote
It would be China vs the eastern world. Nearly every country wants to see the status quo maintained and they will assist in the effort to keep it that way.
[deleted] t1_ixhewtu wrote
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arkwald t1_ixibwpn wrote
You seem to forget that belligerent pompous assholes who can lie to themselves without consequence have extremely poor track records. CCP are just humans, same as you and I. They are not supermen or superior to anyone else when it comes down to it. Sure they may have lots and lots of manpower, but as we have seen in Ukraine manpower means very little when arrogance and pride overshadow basic reason.
China may indeed try to cross the Taiwan strait. They may attempt to seize the island of Taiwan. They may even succeed. However, the very fact they do so almost guarantees the arrogant pride that will break the people of China. It will expensive and bloody and will be for very little in the end. Expect millions of Chinese mothers to weep as their family lines end because of the feebleminded greed of a man resembling a character in a child's book.
Unlikely_Plankton_11 t1_ixgsngz wrote
> Numbers alone are overwhelming.
This isn’t WW2. Ask the Desert Storm era Iraqi army how useful their overwhelming numbers were.
slowslownotbad t1_ixgu127 wrote
China will probably make the same mistakes as Iraq and Russia.
Soviet doctrine dies hard.
Zukiff t1_ixh315a wrote
Overwhelming numbers and more technologically advance equipment. The Chinese Navy are state of the art while most of US existing flight is obsolete and they are unable to replace them in time. Youre comparing apples to rotten oranges here
erosram t1_ixiaje5 wrote
Apples to rotten oranges? Sounds like a one of those Chinese bot accounts.
Unlikely_Plankton_11 t1_ixjqw70 wrote
You’re describing an alternate reality. Don’t know what else to say to you.
Zukiff t1_ixjsjlg wrote
40% of the Chinese fleet are literally built over the last 4 years
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/05/china/china-world-biggest-navy-intl-hnk-ml-dst/index.html
Meanwhile has a lot of ships that are more than 30 years old like the ticonderoga class cruisersfacing decommissioning but doesn't have the building capacity to replace them
I'm not the one living in an alternative reality, our reality have moved on from the time where US is far more power than everyone else combined. Sure the Chinese are still not as powerful as the US Navy overall. But they are more powerful than the Americans when they are fighting in their own backyard while the US needs to travel thousands of miles to fight them
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