Submitted by maliknyc t3_11a965p in wallstreetbets

Rivian has been in the news recently, and they are seen as a strong competitor to Tesla's Cybertruck, going after the SUV and light truck markets. I'll cover their overall goals, then go into their investments, the outcomes they're trying to achieve, some of the campaigns they're running, and the projects they're working on.

Rivian's philanthropic mission is dedicated to addressing the planet's climate crisis and preserving the critical biodiversity needed for our planet's long-term survival. They achieve this in part through successfully introducing new market products and services, such as vehicle services, insurance, charging solutions, memberships, and other software solutions that meet the fleet management needs of commercial customers. They want to continue investing in their facilities, service network, retail operations, and technology for future operations. Currently, they're also talking about making or entering into strategic alliances, including joint ventures, minority equity investments, or other transactions with various third parties to help them accelerate their business growth. They speak in large about their ability to convert their customers into subscribers of critical services, which are a vital part of their growth strategy, driven initially by attach rate retention and the subsequent adoption of future service offerings.

In the near term, they are looking at targeting, as mentioned, the pickup truck, SUV, and commercial market segments in the United States of America, Canada, and currently, Western Europe. They plan on achieving long-term growth by expanding in existing markets, constructing abroad for your vehicles and digital services with global appeal, entering major global automated markets, strategically investing in the ecosystem, and expanding into adjacent verticals. They often speak about their ability to scale their ecosystem and brand experience. They mention that their go-to-market strategy requires them to scale their ecosystem quickly and effectively, including the technology platform, product development, and operational infrastructure. They have acquired significant capital to develop and grow their business, including setting their first vehicle to be manufactured at volume, the R1T, R1S, and EV, and overall building their brand. The Rivian Cloud's software infrastructure effectively includes interconnected applications designed to deliver seamless end-to-end digital commerce solutions and experiences across web, mobile, and other additional app interfaces. The Rivian Cloud enables fleet OS, diagnostics, OTA software, and remote vehicle controls, including vehicle access, as part of their overall commitment to building a better sustainable future. They have created "Forever," which was set up to expand their impact beyond transportation and energy of products and services, which they associate with the competition.

Overall, they have three goals or outcomes they're trying to achieve: achieving growth, improving the results of operations, and then generating profits. However, through the investments currently raised, they are in a significant amount of debt and are not generating any profits and probably will not for the next two to three years based on the growth and the ramp they're trying to achieve. They talk a great deal about their ability to expand their operations significantly, which will also require hiring, retaining, and training new personnel, controlling expenses efficiently and effectively, developing operational capabilities, and establishing more facilities and experience centers. They also talk about deploying their R&D, CFCs, and Rivian waypoints, which are networks of charging stations in the United States designed to provide charging capabilities to owners of vehicles. They talk significantly about the ability to grow into new geographies and how they plan to invest in their international operations and grow their business outside of existing operations in the United States, Canada, the UK, and the EU.

In addition to land conservation and sustainable consumption initiatives, Forever will include research and educational stewardship to help communities understand, appreciate, and learn how to preserve our planet's natural resources for future generations. Their charging networks are heavily expanding throughout the US and other countries. They will continue to do so as demand for their current vehicles and products expands. Lastly, we'll quickly talk about their projects. We mentioned their ability to efficiently and effectively operate through manufacturing processes. They're saying they must stand up complex and integrate IT systems, which they plan to expand over the next few years strategically.

Rivian initially focused on deploying their charging stations in regions with the highest concentration of customers, pre-orders, major interstates, and targeted destination areas. They're also implementing decarbonization strategies aligning with their climate pledge through real business change and innovations. Lastly, they continue to address climate change further and preserve the critical biodiversity needed for the planet. Over the last month, we've seen Tesla cut prices on all its vehicle lineups, which is causing and probably will make creating a vehicle at a profit more difficult for Rivian. Lastly, Ford has recently sold all of its stocks in Rivian, basically dumping their current investments in the company. They also have a contract with Amazon to deliver fleet vehicles to them. However, it needs to be clarified whether the production will be able to meet the demands of that specific contract.

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VisualMod t1_j9qkeze wrote

>Rivian is a joke and their products are overpriced. They will never be able to compete with Tesla's Cybertruck.

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garoo1234567 t1_j9qmejs wrote

I don't think this is the right question. I think the truck market is plenty big enough for Rivian and Tesla to sell both their trucks. Both their competition is actually the gas truck makers

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DueSecretary4174 t1_j9qooh6 wrote

They had better get acquired by Tesla for $420.69 per share. That’s the only way they will return any capital to the shareholders.

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Meat__Head t1_j9qrxq2 wrote

2 things I've never seen in the wild: 1) Sasquatch and 2) Tesla Cyber Truck. But I have seen quite a few Rivian trucks tho 🤣

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WildWestCollectibles t1_j9qtr4o wrote

Tesla should’ve designed a truck like Rivian’s.

Who the fuck saw the cyber truck in the design phase and thought: yeah, that’s what truck drivers will replace their vehicles with.

Asinine.

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DYTTIGAF t1_j9qvxtc wrote

I don't care about the philanthropic "mission". I want the stock to make money. I want profits. I want brand awareness. I want dealer networks. I want nimble management. I want marketshare.

Can you offer me this baseline of a "philosophy"? Nope.

Sell.

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CaliforniaBlueJay420 t1_j9r225n wrote

Excellent product and strong company. RJ is a smart man. First to market with an electric truck that gets over 400 miles range and still the reigning champ of that space with Ford's lightning even hitting a recent production snag and still not as many units produced as Rivian. Hopefully we can see RIVN reach 100k units produced this year off their line in Illinois. If you want some juicy news, look up the state legislation and major tax credit package that the Governor of Illinois signed at the end of 2022 to benefit EV makers like RIVN. The gov't has the back of RIVN and is not going to let them fail. And they have a factory in Georgia coming online within the next few years to at least double output. RIVN is a long play, you need to buy on the dip and be patient, but imagine when we reach over 100k in annual volume? Americans fucking love their trucks and SUVs.

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CaliforniaBlueJay420 t1_j9r2f63 wrote

Rivian R1T vs the Ford F-150 Lightning on specs:

One of the key differences between the two vehicles is their range. The Rivian R1T has a range of up to 400 miles, while the Ford F-150 Lightning has a range of up to 300 miles. The Rivian R1T also offers impressive off-road capabilities, with adjustable air suspension and up to 14 inches of ground clearance, while the Ford F-150 Lightning is designed more for on-road use.

Another difference is their towing capacity. The Rivian R1T has a maximum towing capacity of up to 11,000 pounds, while the Ford F-150 Lightning has a maximum towing capacity of up to 10,000 pounds.

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Yf_lo t1_j9retpq wrote

God no. Just stop. You will need an industry disruption move. If legacy maker are worried, fledgling companies are gonna get eaten

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Imaginary-Table4103 t1_j9riaxh wrote

If that is their mission then they are failing at every aspect. They produce over engineered product with wasteful approach with poor quality. I originally was a fan until I watched closely. Hopefully they do a lot better but right now they produce one of the least green vehicles out there. They lose 3-5% charge a night without even using them which is a ton of wasted electricity/fossil fuels as one example.

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aka0007 t1_j9rmmtg wrote

Tesla took till 2018 when they had already over 500K vehicles sold to finally hit -10B in cumulative free cash flow (much of it related to production and scaling of Model 3 production before things turned around in 2019)... Rivian by Q3' 2022 was already -11.4B in cumulative free cash flow with under 20K sold. By comparison... when Tesla had sold that few vehicles their cumulative free cash flow was about -1B.

So comparing to Tesla here is kind of ridiculous but guess it looks like Rivian is headed to -100B in cumulative free cash flow before they turn it around.

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Southern_Smoke8967 t1_j9rwpu9 wrote

Tesla waited until 2018 to scale up for midel3 which is when negative FCF became big. Rivian on the other hand is scaling up from the get go which is why it has such as large cash burn. Same reason but different ramp up speeds.

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fotfuture t1_j9rzl1n wrote

  1. record sales during q4
  2. happy customers
  3. fed tax credit once dual motor models available
  4. I just like the truck

Buy calls for earnings play

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MaterialGuy007 t1_j9s2r4w wrote

Above is just 5% of what RIVIAN is about. They've been approached by universities to redraw their energy map, just one case - they have so much going they asked Mercedes Benz to take a hike.

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Double-hokuto t1_j9s5841 wrote

Have you ever been in a Rivian? They rip from 0-60 and drip luxury. Far better build quality than any recent Tesla, and a better feeling of power for all the rich 30 somethings who want a truck to feel big and electric to feel green (even though 7 tons of batteries can’t be green in any way).

I thought they were a bit of a joke till I rode in one. Very bullish now.

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boogi3woogie t1_j9s7q5l wrote

If this is their business strategy i’m never buying their stock.

Sell cars, sell subscriptions, and greenwash.

Got it.

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KeenStudent t1_j9sem8o wrote

are we seriously still talking about the next EV "Tesla killer" in 2023? Mind-numbingly boring. At this point the focus should be on legacy vs Tesla. It'd be 2030 and these EV startups are still not cashflow positive.

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swissiws t1_j9t25da wrote

>Far better build quality than any recent Tesla

There are plenty of videos of around of recent Tesla cars that praise their build quality. Things have changed and Tesla is the fastest automaker in changing their products. Non for the better all the time, but as time passes the product is better than it was earlier. Each iteration can take less than a month, others take longer. The panel gaps or other problems that arose during 2018 production hell are no longer here. In facts, chinese Teslas never had quality issues. It has always been a Freemont problem

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aka0007 t1_j9t9e9l wrote

Exactly. Not sure why people don't get that that Tesla was operating in a different environment in 2010-2020. The Tesla model worked, arguably, to a large extent because of the lack of competition and the access to those motivated buyers who were less price conscious and more forgiving of early missteps. And even in that environment Tesla almost went bankrupt (well we also forget that battery costs were crazy high and lack of any supply chain meant substantial upfront costs).

Then Tesla also has Elon Musk, but if I mention that I will get called out for being part of the cult...

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aka0007 t1_j9tb6tn wrote

Tesla in 2017 sold 2,685 Model 3's and their FCF that year was -4.1B. In 2018 they sold 152,977 Model 3's and their FCF that year was -221M.

RIVN in 2021 sold 920 r1t's and their FCF was -4.4B... So ah-ha! You must think you are right because look at how close that FCF is... But... through Q3' 2022 with 12,278 vehicles sold their FCF was another -4.7B.

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So to recap from Year 1 of production to Year 2 of production for the Model 3 vs the Truck/SUV Rivian makes:

Tesla 2,685 -> 152,977

Rivian 920 -> 12,278

​

FCF for those periods:

Tesla -4.1B -> -221M

Rivian -4.4B -> -4.7B

​

If you want to dig deeper into this...

In Q1' 2022 per vehicle sold, Rivian's FCF was -654K

In Q2' 2022 per vehicle sold, their FCF was -206K

In Q3' 2022 per vehicle sold, their FCF was -449K

Not sure scaling is working out here as you think.

​

You can chirp on about how Rivian is doing this and that, but the numbers here don't show it. Tesla within a year turned around a cash-burning production process... Rivian has barely scaled up and as of Q3 was still burning cash like crazy. I would not count on next week Tuesday after the close looking pretty.

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jhonkas t1_j9vfs9h wrote

is this chatGPT gobbleiy gooke

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