A safe 150% gain

Submitted by Turbulent_Reporter40 t3_127dwsn in wallstreetbets

Guys, not sure if this will end up in the right place, if not please delete.

I like Dutch Bros. (Bros). They are a coffee stand business, I’ve never been to one that had less than 6 cars in line, usually it’s a 30 plus min wait. They are going from 700 stores I believe it is now to 3000.

The biggest reason why I like them is, no China or Russia influence. If we were to go to war, people will still buy comfort items they can afford, like coffee. During the Great Depression the public spent on movies, well for this generation they hang out in their cars at Dutch Bros.

If real estate crashes and I believe it will, they can build their stores cheaper. Most of all, their employees are truly happy, their customers are truly happy. And they are bringing happiness into the world. Right now, all the profits are going into expanding. But I assure you, they are killing it. In 3 years they WILL be at $80 or more a share. I just don’t see any risk. They are one of few, legit investments where it is easily understandable, it’s not magic, just a good company that is treating everyone right and has a cult following. Please guys, buy.., a safer investment can’t be found. Yeah, it won’t make you game stop rich, but it’s legit. It’s not wishing in one hand and shitting in the other.

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SteveG199 t1_jedr8fl wrote

ITT : Please hold my bags

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BenRobNU t1_jeenijk wrote

ITT 2.0 -> Will you please buy the calls I'm trying to write.

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Turbulent_Reporter40 OP t1_jedrh6x wrote

I don’t understand your comment

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finance_for_you t1_jeed22o wrote

“I just don’t see any risk”

  • this is the best due diligence I’ve ever seen. Take my money!
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Crayon_Casserole t1_jeeolpk wrote

Do they hand out fee sugar?

What if someone requested a million sugars?

Don't get me started on the free napkins.

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0x11C3P t1_jedr7r8 wrote

The fact you see no risk is prob how you'll end up losing money. There are always risks and while systemic risk can only be hedged so far, the coffee business, is not recession proof. Best they can hope for is super low cogs and mass volume in that environment.

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Turbulent_Reporter40 OP t1_jeduotm wrote

I disagree. I don’t believe low cost of goods sold is their aim…. And there is no way to possibly increase volume when every store is backed up. It’s not as if there is any real way to poor the coffee faster. The only complaints I see on yelp are the wait, but that’s demand. Obviously they can increase prices to get a higher margin. But I think they have it all pretty well dialed in.

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Neither_Ride3473 t1_jedrgob wrote

I don't really understand how waiting 30 minutes for a coffee is somehow a sign of a healthy company to you?

I live in Denver and I can assure you that Dutch Bros has numerous unhappy employees and even more unhappy customers. They're a far reach from what they once were and will end up no differently than any every other brand that forgot its roots.

Their new buildouts are like 5 times the size of their original builds, their original builds were supposed to be a part of their brand.

I'm not debating that the company will grow because obviously it will. The Dutch Bros you see 5 years from now will be nothing like the Dutch Bros that people loved and supported to get it to where it is today though. There are few QSR brands (if not absolutely zero) that stuck to their brand standards throughout their growth.

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Turbulent_Reporter40 OP t1_jeduqtz wrote

By the way, looking at Denver yelp. The only complaints I see are one screwed up order. The rest are all complaints about wait time. That is due to high demand.

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Neither_Ride3473 t1_jedvkr2 wrote

No one uses Yelp. Wait times are far from mutually exclusive with high demand.

99% of unhappy customers do not complain, they just don't return. Dutch Bros also doesn't belong to the generation of people that make public complaints on things like Yelp, Google Maps, etc.

Younger adults are far less likely than older adults to actually complain about a visit to a QSR. The price point and availability of competitors isn't worth the time it takes to complain. Especially when you're referring to something like a coffee shop where there is 1,000,000 others that you can visit.

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Turbulent_Reporter40 OP t1_jeds793 wrote

Oh I don’t doubt they won’t be able to sustain the organic growth the way they previously did. To scale up, you’re going to run out of managers to take from one and move into ownership, therefore more corporate stores.

I am in California so have no idea what goes on in Colorado. But I truly have never met an employee who didn’t like their job to almost a level of truly being in a cult. It’s really almost creepy. It’s sad to hear things in Colorado aren’t in keeping. I have gone to 3 new stores in Arizona. They appeared to be exactly the same, and the employees were just as psycho.

I think having a line around the block that is 30 min long is most certainly to be looked at as a sign of healthy product. Yes, I get to the same types of guys who invest in Enron and things they don’t understand but yet claim to, my view is overly simplistic and there is more to the picture. But I have never once picked a money looser in 30 years since I bought my first stock. 100% of the time I’ve been right. I am 610% up in last 3 years. Which I get is nothing compared to some of these gamblers, the difference is, I buy safe, understandable plays. I don’t gamble, and I look at nature more so than the micro factors. If you look at this stuff through the eyes of a child, You will never be taken in by a shiny scam.

I put my life savings into habit burger several years back. It had everything that I see in Dutch. To me this is a no brainer 150% in 3 year play.

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0x11C3P t1_jedsp69 wrote

If you're going to say such outrageous things, put up some credence to your words and post up your massive 100% no loss portfolio. At 100% wins over a 30 yr period should show quite the portfolio. I'm sure we, the degens of WSB, would love to see it and be in awe of your investment prowess.

Especially since you have no post history and this reads as if you're trying to pump the price as you're stuck in this investment.

Lastly, this sub is for 150% gains in a single trade. Not over a period of years.

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Turbulent_Reporter40 OP t1_jedty6x wrote

I’m not stuck in Dutch Bros. My avg cost is actually $27. Are you some type of moderator here? Do I email you pics of the statements? I’m new here.

I’m saying, 3 years will be $80 a share. And I’m sticking to that. I’m 110% sure.

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0x11C3P t1_jedudn3 wrote

Just reply to the response with an unedited and non-paper account screenshot as well as your position.

In the first place, the post of your flair says gain but you haven't closed your position nor shown it. It's more "DD" if you can even call it that.

I'm also not a mod here. There's just a lot of BS on this sub and plenty of fake accounts + posts.

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Neither_Ride3473 t1_jedt1io wrote

I'm not doubting their growth, just doubting their process in getting there. They have completely abandoned their roots and will be a completely different company in within the next 5 years.

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Turbulent_Reporter40 OP t1_jedtm1g wrote

Of course they will be different. The thing is, with no real store and customers not leaving their car, it’s pretty hard to give a store one star. Being that you never can go in to have your expectations go unmet. At least In the way you would a Starbucks with dirty bathrooms, filled with homeless people who haven’t showered in 5 weeks. If you ask me the coffee isn’t all that great…. But I believe they will have uniformity on product fairly well dialed in.

To be honest, I find the experience of going there and being basically harassed when all I want is a cup of coffee to be annoying. But, I’m not the demographic they are catering to. And it’s clear to me, they are doing a good job with what they are aiming for. Will it be the same in 3 years, absolutely not. Will it still have a line around the block, I can’t see that stopping. These kids are nuts about it.

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Neither_Ride3473 t1_jedv3mb wrote

Like I said, I don't doubt that they will grow as well as their stock price.

I do doubt that you know half as much about the company as you think you do though. I was very interested in this company until I started researching them.

First of all, they built their first eat in store like 7/8 years ago. So I don't know why you assume that they are drive up specific, because they aren't.

I also know tons of people that hop from Dutch to Dutch depending on who they may assume is working or running a shift.

The most important point I have is that they have no ethos. The business was built on an extremely low cost build out which is the size of a shed and serving a minimal amount of products. They also mandated in house progression and did theoretically zero outside hiring for seniority positions.

Inhouse progression is no longer even on their radar. They build stores that cost millions of dollars up front. They have extensive menus. They even stooped as low as franchising. They only ended franchising because franchisees were out of control and trashing the brand. I can almost guarantee you they will get back into franchising within the next 2/3 years (all in the name of growth that will further tarnish their brand)

They're just another company that bends to the will of money and will never stand the test of time.

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ExoticCard t1_jefac2y wrote

LETS SEE THIS MFKIN PORTFOLIO

POST IT UP OR GET THE FUCK OUT

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DivitReddits t1_jee49yd wrote

https://preview.redd.it/wpifer3ij3ra1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=a9ca5e2bdf9f2347a80b4a777acca5626fc8eb3a

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[deleted] t1_jee4ae9 wrote

[removed]

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DivitReddits t1_jee4lcq wrote

However, the chart shows thats from January 2022 to March 2023, there has been a higher low and a higher previous high, could go either way, but just look at fundamentals + also keep note of all the shorts getting destroyed. Good luck 🤞🏼

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Turbulent_Reporter40 OP t1_jefsikt wrote

Yeah, I believe it may very well go down before up. They are aggressively charging ahead. But I believe they can’t fail.

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PresterJohnsKingdom t1_jefuvfp wrote

No risk! 150% return!

I've never been to one that didn't have cars in the drive thru!

...that's some rock solid DD there, OP. You do know they lost $4 million on $750 in revenue last year, right? When do you think Dutch Brothers will be profitable? You know these guys have been around since '92 right? This isn't some new growth start up with new technology or some groundbreaking product. It's a god damn coffee shop.

They have had some nice revenue growth but how much more market share is out there with Starbucks, Tim Hortons, fucking Dunkin Donuts, etc all selling their version of the same shitty black liquid caffeine sauce.

Godspeed OP. Hope your calls print. But your thesis is regarded.

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rwang411 t1_jee7l2k wrote

LMAO...I remember one of these posts when it was in the 60s...-50% later (with much more room to drop)

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Turbulent_Reporter40 OP t1_jefspew wrote

Well we were smart enough to watch it and not buy. The bottom is 20 the top in my opinion is $85.

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Interesting_Adagio49 t1_jeednig wrote

People will not buy comfort items at crazy prices.I have been and 18 bucks for 2 frozen whatever is insane.Yes they are good,yes they stay crowded till close but I dunno about strong in a recession

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ExoticCard t1_jefankq wrote

When those hot coffees sell more than the lattes/fancy drinks, that's when you know

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DenuvoSuks t1_jedv4fh wrote

30 minutes min to wait for a coffee, SHORT that. WTF!

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Turbulent_Reporter40 OP t1_jefqtst wrote

They can only pour coffee so fast. With the amount of demand it would be pretty stupid to short, yes I do believe it will go down before it goes up. It costs money to set yourself up. Especially if you are doing it with your own funds. Look at shares outstanding. They are pouring money into it to be successful. It can not fail.

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Sea_Parsley2982 t1_jee88ll wrote

How are they not profitable when all they have are tiny huts with 1-2 workers who sell $5+ drinks?

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crazier_ed t1_jeedbva wrote

They would be more profitable if the workers wore bikinis ...

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Turbulent_Reporter40 OP t1_jefsunx wrote

Agree. Completely agree. They are not profitable because so much is going back in. When they pause for a little bit their numbers will be insane.

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VisualMod t1_jedqebt wrote

User Report
Total Submissions 1 First Seen In WSB 9 months ago
Total Comments 11 Previous Best DD
Account Age 9 months [^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) [^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
>TL;DR: Buy Dutch Bros. They're expanding rapidly, have a cult following, and their employees are happy.
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VisualMod t1_jedqemw wrote

>I believe that Dutch Bros. is a good investment because they are expanding rapidly and have a cult following. Their employees seem happy, which suggests that the company is treating them well, and their customers are also happy. In my opinion, this makes them a safer investment than many other options out there.

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Turbulent_Reporter40 OP t1_jedqwun wrote

I also like that to own a franchise you have to work as a manager for 2 years. New stores open and so far all have been immediately profitable. Due to the fact owners know their business.

I had a friend who wanted to buy a DB. He has a lot more money than me…. He offered a lot of money, they would not sell to him, regardless of investment or cost, unless he worked, at age 55 for them from the bottom up. That kind of thing is very rare and creates a team that not only is well trained, but has heart.

I just truly think it’s safer than gold to put your money with them.

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Manstrife t1_jeemlz6 wrote

When the recession really hits a lot less people will be buying coffee lol

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c410bp t1_jeeshmo wrote

lol good meme dude

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StudyStonks-OII t1_jeezfr0 wrote

You'll be broke but at least you'll have caffeine... for like $10 a coffee.... okay so maybe you won't have caffeine.

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Kitten_Team_Six t1_jefbn15 wrote

Theres a place here that has 20 year old girls in bikinis selling coffee. I will go there instead, but thanks

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Turbulent_Reporter40 OP t1_jefrlpb wrote

Well Dutch does have many 20 year old girls if you’re into that. But they also aren’t gross like your place

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BaquanSarkley428 t1_jefocfb wrote

You should buy Starbucks, I hear they have a wait of upwards of an hour.

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Turbulent_Reporter40 OP t1_jefrvqp wrote

Ha that made me laugh. But star bucks does have their place. The margin can’t be questioned on coffee. I remember Dunkin’ Donuts. That one was a big money maker. But this is something else. This is very different. It isn’t really a competitor for the same customer.

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mazarax t1_jeh3hqk wrote

I've been holding it since their IPO. After an initial boom, I am now looking at unrealized capital loss.

And I didn't even get paid a single cent of dividends.

Regrets...

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Cracktheclue t1_jedzu5i wrote

Weird was just looking for coffee near me and saw this place

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That-Relation-5846 t1_jedyrpk wrote

You actually sold me lol, I’m not a coffee drinker but I’ve seen the lines, hmmm

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Turbulent_Reporter40 OP t1_jefr8uq wrote

Go there and check it out. I’m telling you man, the way they do business is 5 stars. I don’t actually like their coffee. The home made Red Bull drinks are ok. I like making money and even 5 years later the line has never slowed down at the local store.

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Turbulent_Reporter40 OP t1_jefs6or wrote

I do believe it very well might go down before up. My prediction is $80 in 3. It could fall as low as $20 as they plow profits back in and don’t seem profitable. There is no question to the margin on coffee though. Each store is 1.5 million out the gate in sales. Instantly profitable.

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