Everyone’s a bear, time to be a bull?

Submitted by Firesaleatthebuy t3_z7uq6n in wallstreetbets

Everyone and their mother is a bear in the current market and everyone seems to be sure the first half of 2023 we will see stonks go down and enter “true recession”. Articles are everywhere, and bears have dominated this sub with the long dated puts and doomsdaying.

Which leads me to believe we will skyrocket into 2023 and bottom is in.

Thoughts on inversing everyone ? The dumpsters get cold this time of year

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AMCBUYANDHOLD t1_iy8aftd wrote

Puts when the vix hits 20, calls when it hits 34. Easy.

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YuriBezmenovReturns t1_iy8aqn5 wrote

Lol.. Its been a day.. One day of SPY red in the paat two weeks and "everyone is a bull"

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Double-hokuto t1_iy99skq wrote

Understand that on the daily thread, only the winners are loud. The day’s losers are quietly cursing at their brokerage apps (myself included).

Sentiment on WSB flips with that day’s trend/momentum, so everyone’s a bull on big up days too.

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No-Tower3635 t1_iy89np4 wrote

Not yet young padawan.

Dollar inflation is cooling and we will go into recession soon.

You're like a year or two early.

It's okay you'll learn one day

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Impossible-Machine42 t1_iy8cbgr wrote

Market went down due to a few problems. Inflation - maybe starting to slow, not solved. Recession - will probably still happen, housing shutting down, Layoffs, and strikes. War in UKE looks like an expensive standoff right now. This problem could come under control soon or drag on for years. China - Lockdowns and riots, WTF???? Government Debt-- still getting larger and larger. When these problems look like there is a solution in sight I will put more money into the stock market. But it looks like we still have no solutions to these problems.

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tomsrobots t1_iy8up93 wrote

There were similar contrarian sentiments in 2008 before the market fell further.

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MeLoveWookie t1_iyb0u06 wrote

And the 2001 contrarians caught the falling knife in one hand while gleefully jacking off in the other.

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VisualMod t1_iy86431 wrote

>I'm not one to follow the crowd and I don't think that everyone's opinion matters. If you do your research, develop a strategy based on facts, data analysis and educated guesses then go for it! As far as bottoming out is concerned, markets are cyclical in nature so there will always be ups and downs but with any investment you should have an exit plan just in case things start heading south.

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RealHornblower t1_iy8vxjt wrote

SPY is down almost 20% YTD, and with inflation, that's more like 25-30% in real terms. There can always be more downside but the risk/reward of buying puts seems pretty bad right now. You're either betting on catching the last 5-10% downward move, or you're betting on a major recession where we drop 50%-ish from the highs.

I like selling fairly OTM covered calls right now.

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Altruistic-Affect780 t1_iy8xk0v wrote

Buy something now or pay a premium later . Old men are buying and chances are we won’t get to enjoy it ! You know a recovery will happen . You know the war will end , inflation will decrease, the feds will pivot one day , etc . Get in now for those days . It’s a cake walk for the future of the good old USA. Place your bets LONG !

You gambling daily Degenerates fucks !

7

Icy-Subject-6118 t1_iy9f51x wrote

You see what you want to see. All I see is bullish sentiment, which aids the fact that this dumpster fire of a market will burn. You see bearish sentiment so you think bullish. Who cares. Do you actually value said market at this price or higher? If so then buy. If not then sell. It’s that simple

7

eper3 t1_iyasg2w wrote

One of the stupidest things I’ve ever heard. This is a short term trading sub not a long term value investing sub. It has everything to do with sentiment and nothing to do with value.

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15719901 t1_iybikwh wrote

See that's what I'm talking about right there. Enough with these long-term mindsets. Just make plays based on what you think JPOW will say tomorrow. I'm holding a single SPX 3900 put that expires tomorrow. Yeah it'll most likely expire worthless but what of it? I'm betting that JPOW is going to say how we need to see significant reductions in growth before the Fed even thinks about reducing rate hikes.

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the_offender69 t1_iy8i69x wrote

im slurping up bitcoin every day it will probably go sub 16k by jan which will only increase my suction power for the next big crypto bull run in 24 or 25

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bytemuncher t1_iyah4t3 wrote

Not sure we'll see sub 16k by January, but definitely headwinds in 2023. Suspect we'll see more of a risk-off investing approach due to recession fears with crypto first to get dumped from portfolios. Also more regulations incoming. Crypto doesn't react well to regulations. Throw in another exchange failure and maybe a Tether failure and BTC will bottom fast.

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1TalefromTheCryptos t1_iyapcmn wrote

Do they have any crypto Roths where you don't have to pay monthly fees like with itrustcapital?

1

Audio_Adam t1_iyaytgo wrote

Good luck with this, I truly don’t think you understand the problems created in the 22 year bull run. But again in good luck, I hope it turns out okay for you.

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PapaDragon_6 t1_iy87opl wrote

will wait till santa storm passes

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33446shaba t1_iy8he3d wrote

Falling knives are tough to catch. I do see a small play that gets bigger as we go. Just how long do you think the fed will continue to raise or hold before QE. The ten year yield is starting to fall into place. This often marks where the fed will go but it's not perfect by any means.

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nailattack t1_iy8l9fz wrote

Just look at every single comment on this thread and you’ll understand the general sentiment of retail. Yes you’re likely to do much better if you inverse everyone. Just don’t pick shitty meme stocks

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MadHatterBrainmatter t1_iy90d1x wrote

That's how you decide the bottoms in? That one not so data ,data point ? You say that while markets have been going up for the last few weeks.

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OffByOneErrorz t1_iy9ephd wrote

Inverse WSB is not quite the fine wine that inverse Cramer is but it will get you happy.

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lrrc49 t1_iya4i1q wrote

As long as you're investing money you are very unlikely to need in the next 5-10 years now is as good a time as ever to buy.

Pick up stocks that pay a dividend and don't look back.

I can't say for sure what will happen with VZ, but it was at 55 a share 8 months ago pays a .64/share quarterly dividend and it sitting at 38-39ish feels like a great "value" stock at current prices with lots of upside as it's likely to push back into the 50s at some point.

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bytemuncher t1_iyaix1w wrote

Agree w/ communications stonks especially with economic headwinds. Both T and VZ pay dividends and look like good values atm.

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1

bluepilledbetasimp t1_iy89f6r wrote

People moving to cash and bonds during inflation. 🥴 Sticking with commodities for a while. Food, energy, oil, metals.

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jcvmarques t1_iy8co3x wrote

If you want to make money, buy puts

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Morbihan56 t1_iy8ld2q wrote

Yes, probably time to “all in” in cryptos. Yolo. Yalla.

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lordinov t1_iy8ohlt wrote

I’m not a bear today

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booyouboo1 t1_iy8ra1e wrote

Let the bears get greedy then Shrek is my plan

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FarrisAT t1_iy97zwv wrote

Literally just read a Morgan Stanley sentiment survey from last week that said investors bought $35 billion of equity since November began.

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bytemuncher t1_iyaikqx wrote

Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley said S&P will bottom next year and finish out 2023 around 3900.

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SmoothConfection1115 t1_iy9hrlp wrote

Just call in and ask Jim Cramer what he thinks.

Then do the opposite.

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That-Whereas3367 t1_iyb3dvh wrote

Still another 30-50% to fall. AMZN and TSLA are 70-80% overpriced.

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[deleted] t1_iybavbt wrote

Not everyone and their mom is a bear yet. Yes, regarded people on WSB and finance subs and financial news. Main Street isn’t there…. and they aren’t going to be there until they see their home equity plunge. When that happens, they panic sell and shortly after we hit bottom.

There is further to go.

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ComprehensivePaint54 t1_iybzh5z wrote

Go look at real indicators like fear and greed index or vix. No reason to be bullish

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