Submitted by NoMoreLandBro t3_z8ignq in wallstreetbets
NoMoreLandBro OP t1_iybslt7 wrote
Reply to comment by nailattack in Thousands of trades over 3 years on $500k+ account. Barely beating the SP500. by NoMoreLandBro
Yeah I’m kind of buy and hold. But not like 30 years; more like, oh look, gold miners are cheap, let me buy $100k, and now I have a $30k gain on them over a few months but I don’t want to sell, and incur short term cap gains in 2022. And I think they could still double from here so I’m holding them for the long-term cap gains tax to kick in.
I do more macro based analysis and hold until the macro environment changes. I bought $100k of infrastructure stocks in late 2020 anticipating a congressional bailout around spending. I sat in them for 4 months doing nothing while tech tripled. And then tech crashed and my play paid off, but I sold, wasn’t the time to hold infrastructure stocks anymore.
I think WSBers who get older will like my strategy. I’m not buy an index fund and sit for 30 years but I’m not buying 0DTE options either. I do something in the middle.
conviper30 t1_iyciicu wrote
So what in particular do you look at for macro analysis? Sorry I'm a crayon eater so you may need to explain it to a not so smart person.
NoMoreLandBro OP t1_iyd0lft wrote
It’s not really codifiable or objective. I look at what’s happening in the world and think about where money will flow.
In early 2020 I was in line at the post office, wearing a mask when that nonsense started, and an old man had ridden his bicycle here. He said the gyms being closed made it hard to work out so he was biking more. I immediately thought “peloton will soar on these lockdowns” because I KNEW lockdowns would last 18 to 24 months.
But I didn’t buy any, the stock seemed expensive. Oops.
By late 2020 I saw the ‘vid was entrenched and knew it would be a massive recession. And the government would propose infrastructure spending. So I went heavy into infrastructure stocks while everyone else was piling into tech.
Late 2021 I said war was going to be a way for the politicians to divert inflation so I went into defense contractors.
Mid-2022 I saw green energy policies in Europe complained with anti-Putin pro-Ukraine rhetoric would mean high energy costs there and shortages. So I sold the few European stocks I had, and I bought into uranium since nuclear is the only way out for them.
Nord pipeline blew up and I knew the oil had to be transported in tankers so I bought tankers.
I look to see what’s happening in the world. And IF the stocks are cheap enough to buy, I’ll buy. I missed on peloton because it looked expensive. I missed on Zoom because I work in IT and have known for years Zoom is trash spyware and had no idea it would go so fucking high.
If you study history and psychology you can see where the world is going. And try to front run investments. If you only invest when the macro picture looks possible and the stocks are value, then even if the macro is wrong, you bought into value so it wasn’t that bad.
Value being something that’s under 12x earnings (PE) versus growth that’s like Tesla that was 900 PE last year. I don’t like growth stocks because if you’re wrong, you’re spectacularly wrong. Look at early to mid 2022 what happened to Ark innovation stocks. But if wrong on deep value stocks, they’re still deep value.
SoulMute t1_iyd36d0 wrote
All of this sage wisdom to match the performance of the S&P tho.
NoMoreLandBro OP t1_iyd3myx wrote
Exactly. Kind of a waste of time. The reason I dislike the SP500 is it gets growth stock weighted with crap I dislike like Facebook and Tesla. In 2020, something like 40% of the SP500 was in Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, and Tesla.
1nd3x t1_iyejnvj wrote
>Exactly. Kind of a waste of time.
Not for me it wasnt...I'd tip you but I'm an asshole...lol
Seriously though, thanks for taking the time to write this stuff out. I've been going through some of your comments as I find them here and you've done some things I was considering and didnt, and I did some things you were considering and didnt...kinda allows me to learn from the things I decided not to, and see what make others consider not doing it (like...was I just lucky on a coinflip I thought was in the bag based on missing some info...info you maybe had that caused you to think "nah, not for me")
​
You mentioned Uranium, I would offer up Helium as another commodity now that the US government is done price suppressing it.
If you want some symbol tips, or want to connect and chat about investments in general send me a PM, I'm always interested in expanding my network of trusted individuals(just you, I'm ignoring other people messaging me requests)
NoMoreLandBro OP t1_iyek53o wrote
How do I invest in helium? I’ve heard about this shortage for years. It’s used in MRI machines.
Ok-Government-846 t1_iydaw9s wrote
@nomorelandbro. i realize you think this is fun and you think youre smart...lol...but if u had this much time on your hands youd buy the sp 500 or most of it (you mention you dont like certain ones in comments below) Individually -key word here- and then sell the losers at year end for tax harvesting. bam you just beat yourself the sp 500..
Pilsner12345 t1_iyeilsf wrote
It's still wisdom you can't loose
SoulMute t1_iyerxfd wrote
You’re loose.
Pilsner12345 t1_iyf2vl8 wrote
I'll give you this one
emptyzon t1_iye90ea wrote
“If you’re wrong, you’re spectacularly wrong.”
Seems like that’s the theme of this subreddit. A chance at chasing spectacular gains for spectacular losses.
Good on you for such tight risk management. That’s what separates you from the rest and preserving your fairly sizable capital.
NoMoreLandBro OP t1_iyeih22 wrote
Thanks! I received a compliment from a friend that it’s impressive even though I basically matched the index, because my volatility was so much lower.
Honestly also I hold a ton of cash. So basically, the non-cash positions I held have massively beat the index, and the cash acted as a drag. But, like you say, risk management, I like having the cash, it leads to lower volatility and gives me more options.
[deleted] t1_iyd2a3c wrote
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LOLeverage t1_iydk0dj wrote
Teddy? Is that you? Big fan.
[deleted] t1_iyctyx5 wrote
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conviper30 t1_iycu4re wrote
Huh?
0xf3e t1_iycxlgl wrote
FED interest rates.
vanpenzlovera t1_iycpme8 wrote
so swing trading?
Beasting-25-8 t1_iycirjg wrote
Sounds like too much effort for my old ass. Good for you though.
I'm just going to invest every two months into whatever dividend stock is cheapest. Eventually I'll have a diversified portfolio then I can move stuff around as individual stocks get overpriced.
thecasio22 t1_iydtecw wrote
Ah yes, the strategy of managing multiple $100k positions
NoMoreLandBro OP t1_iydu95f wrote
ElGeeQue t1_iydn0ii wrote
Jesus I can’t wait to be rich enough to give a flying fuck about taxes
Freebirdthefreebird t1_iyelcyl wrote
Sounds like r/investing to me :)
OrdinarySignature823 t1_iycf04q wrote
Sounds very rules based, very repeatable and very real. You will outperform for sure.
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