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Ancient_Implement_30 t1_j272yhz wrote

Reply to comment by Resident_Magician109 in Oil is not my friend by Forsaken-Secret-7398

I was king oil in 2020.

Sold out in 2022.

Now, i am short!

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Resident_Magician109 t1_j274v76 wrote

Short? Bold. I think it has more to run. But the days of big returns are over. I think we are going to repeat 1965-1980 so anything that generates cash flow and dividends is the place to be. I think oil is safe, but I also sold out.

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Ancient_Implement_30 t1_j277q95 wrote

I bought OXY at 13. So i did really well.

Now short HES.

If you look at oil, historically, the late 70s and late 2000s. Those were the only times it really held over $80/ppb.

Oil stocks have continued rallying while oil has had a strong pull back.

My bet is that oil will stay under $80. And oil stocks will pull back 20-30% next year.

But i can always cover and get out. Not married to the trade! Just going off of data.

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Resident_Magician109 t1_j2794ou wrote

Remember, we were releasing 1 million bbl a day for much of this year and we weren't the only country releasing reserves. Additionally 1/7th of the world's population has been on lockdown on and off. Also, most projections have peak global demand somewhere around a decade from now with sustained consumption around today's level until 2050 or so.

I don't know what next year holds, but that was my thesis getting in back in 2020.

Right now my biggest holding is in ET which is currently paying roughly 8% in dividends and plans to raise dividends to over 10% current value by Q1.

I hope the price dips 30% next year. I wouldn't mind accumulating 15% additional shares.

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Ancient_Implement_30 t1_j27h71a wrote

That’s all fine.

I am looking at historically. Only twice has oil gone above $100/ppb in consecutive years. Late 70s with Iran. And during the last bush war.

That’s it. Well, also 1860s. But that’s way out there.

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Hacking_the_Gibson t1_j27b273 wrote

You must be me. I had OXY at like $23.

I am thinking about a short as well. Global central banks are doing the inverse of 2020 right now, whatever is necessary to kill demand.

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IANG_teetboy t1_j28henr wrote

This is solid DD. Thanks. I love it when people trade based on data and not feelings.

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