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throw23w55443h t1_j1kur00 wrote

If Dec CPI/PCE is good, they'll do 0.25 in Feb, if its bad they'll do 0.50. If its fantastic and the recession data is bad, theres an outside shot of a pause, but I find that an almost impossible scenario.

Then they have Jan/Feb data for the Mar meeting. Allowing them to either to 0, 0.25 or 0.50 depending on data. If you have 3 more good months if CPI and things like PPI are in the 30s, the feds going to have a hard time justifying a raise.

I think people misinterpret the feds hawkish talk for a promise that they'll destroy the economy to get inflation to 2% next week. What they need is the economy to know they aren't pivoting. Its signalling and for anyone playing the game its all they've ever done.

FAO food index is about 6 months lagging, fertiliser is lagging, both are on the way down so food should be following as should rents.

The big questions will continue to be services and energy, but i expect if you have 9 months of low CPI and the fed stays hawkish in the face of job losses, that happy little separation they enjoy from congress will get tested some more.

Heres an interesting thread about oil

https://mobile.twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1606459855170060288

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Unknownirish t1_j1lxzms wrote

agreed. plus what the fed is really looking for, and this is going pass the 2 percent inflation, is an average of PCE. So far we are heading down, which is good. Don't expect rate cuts well into 2025, expect a hold on 5% rates

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Hacking_the_Gibson t1_j1m1w2o wrote

Something will break long before 2025.

My guess is Q2 2023 at this pace.

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Unknownirish t1_j1m589x wrote

Ukraine? Perhaps Taiwan? Or North Korea? Or, this will catch everyone off guard, Japan?

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ElectronicReference5 t1_j1m5ib1 wrote

Nuke drop on Ukraine

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Unknownirish t1_j1m5n6u wrote

Personally, I don't see it that happening but in case it does: RemindMe! 4 months

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ElectronicReference5 t1_j26fgia wrote

If Covid lockdown doesn’t happen best believe it’s the bombing of Ukraine. I’ll place a bigger bet on the nuke happening.

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Unknownirish t1_j26j1gu wrote

I don't think that'll be the case, but then again I was wrong with I didn't think Putin would invade Ukraine. He did.

Hard to know.

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