The next big junk heap to rally

Submitted by MissDiem t3_10ohc1a in wallstreetbets

So, the last 6 months or so we've seen numerous names that had absolutely radioactive sentiment yet they've rebounded sharply on some pretty small or questionable catalysts.

NFLX - customer and price saturation in full effect, main "idea" is to call customers password thieves, launches desperate and poorly conceived ad tied but has to refund advertisers... up 120%.

NVIDIA - incredibly high multiple, caught as the poster person of high tech and semiconductor glut, reveals a large portion of earnings are from crypppto (they call "gaming") where demand has vanished, up 100+%.

Bi+coin - left for dead as scandal after scandal and no more greater fools exist, n.ft myth and basic premise becomes a household joke - but crypot related names already up 50-100% this month.

META - another poisonous company and product, became a global joke, clueless leader betting the company on legless animated puppets like an unfun version of second life. Up 60% on.... nothing?

TSLA - sociopathic owner, stale products that look like GM Saturns, slumping sales, aimless and corrupt leadership, finally facing real competition, having to absolutely slash prices to get rid of inventory, leader is off running a message board for authoritarians and their cultists, up 75% this month.

Any of these would have seemed like a terrible buy at their bottoms.

So, what's the current worst and irredeemable large junk pile that will have its 50-150% trash-to-cash rally? Some suggestions...

PYPL - nothing new, CEO still hasn't explained his hyperbolic optimism right before a straight 70% drop in value.

AMZN - gone from customer favorite to universally hated. Every announcement is more negativity, constantly degrading the value prop of Prime, getting rid of shipping incentive, doubling down on third party seller junk, untrustworthy reviews, delivery problems, no action on used and counterfeit merchandise, no leadership.

FSLY/NET - grew on the back of pandemic and social trends like WFH, Tiktok, remote schooling. World is opening up and content distribution more commoditized with slowing growth.

SOFI/RKT - alternative financials, Fintechs. The assumption is that mortgages and loans will be a stock market Death Valley for years to come thanks to fed inflation fighting panic moves. Their clients tend to be more vulnerable, younger, lower assets, lower credit, etc.

any of the EV juniors, suppliers, battery companies - things like Canoo, Rivian, Micro-Vast, Frey, QS. All were once valued on the premise of "what if they can just take 2% market share?" Now that feels like a pipe dream.

Which of these will have their 75% one-month bounce? Or what name do you think will?

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UrbanTruthMan t1_j6en424 wrote

Eh, the only issue with calling SOFI junk is Galileo. That is an innovative technology that allows fintech apps to access banking. It’s a best in class product. Plus all banks will suffer with the shift in mortgages from what they were to where they were going. SoFi only offers loans to “blue chip” borrowers with high credit scores, other banks are holding shit class B/C/D loans and they don’t have brick and mortar liabilities… I think they’re actually going to out perform. You’re off the pulse there. (This isn’t a pump, I do hold equity in SOFI)

I don’t like your analysis on AMZN either. Everyone still uses them, they have a competitive streaming service, AWS is their largest source of revenue and they’ve been crushing M&A with acquisitions such as Whole Foods… They ran a little hard and are over valued but they’re not a garbage pile stock.

TSLA is going to collapse from this recent run. Especially when they don’t deliver 2M new vehicles like Elons tongue and cheek comment. And talk about now hated, Musk? He is your Amazon description.

Just an alternative view.

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MissDiem OP t1_j6f0mlx wrote

> I think they are going to outperform

Can you clarify, who will outperform? SOFI? Or money center banks?

You say SOFI is blue chip clients but my impression is its young people, young graduates. Hence why they've been slammed every time there's a student loan related headline.

One theory is if the GOP succeeds in killing off the remaining parts of student loan forgiveness (most people don't realize there's already been a lot of beneficial student loan relief) that could be good for SOFI, who will basically be the go-to institution of choice for that braid demographic.

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UrbanTruthMan t1_j6hs9p0 wrote

SoFi out performs. Banks perform well during high interest rate periods. Their risk is default but SOFI has discussed their selection process for lending and they want 750 credit scores and currently employed individuals to lend to.

And yes the GOP will try to kill off anything that benefits individuals and not corporations.

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ryan69plank t1_j6eldjx wrote

this is a Bull trap nothing more, we are heading for a recession

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jr1tn t1_j6enp9l wrote

Whoever wrote this post has a great sense of humor, bravo well done.

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MissDiem OP t1_j6f0uhq wrote

I'll tell her. But which of these do you think could have its big bounce? Or is there another dumpster grade large cap you think is next to rise?

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jr1tn t1_j6f1he3 wrote

Just do a scan on Finviz or your favorite scanner and filter for analyst sell rating, high PE, throw a dart and hit your next winner

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MissDiem OP t1_j6f3fle wrote

Several of these names (top half) when they bottomed I wonder if it was worth dumpster diving, but they just seemed too unloved.

All the things on the bottom have that same feeling: nothing good there, and only bad news on the horizon. Remember late Dec as Musk was self-immolating, inventories climbing, story after story of low quality and overpricing. Analysts were sure TSLA would "break the buck" (fall below $100)

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Weird-Status-287 t1_j6fbfew wrote

I'd say test your theory with the names you came up with and if you're right (don't talk yourself into it, make sure its sound) then give it a try with real money.

Always test strategies (then you can back up your hypothesis with some results and more people will listen)

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MissDiem OP t1_j6fda9h wrote

I basically did with the top half ones. All of them I strongly considered buying at their recent lows, but the sentiment and fundamentals were mostly off-putting. I did go big into NFLX $165-185 And scaled out $235-285. For crpoto I do derivative names like miners/data centers so my commitment there was just to hold, and some say any day you don't sell is like the same as buying. They've rallied strongly this month so I've been scaling out.

But the post is inspired by how all of these backtested well.

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Accomplished_Gas7401 t1_j6fyesj wrote

I agree with RKT. It’s nothing but a call center with people pushing paperwork from person to person. Even realtors don’t like there clients working with them.

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MissDiem OP t1_j6gt9wt wrote

Probably true, plus there's apparently a strong trend where a huge portion of home buying is now being done by institutional real estate conglomerates. Rocket is where young and first time and less affluent go, so their market is shrinking. And the RE conglomerates would have no need as they get their own financing.

On the other hand, supposedly big banks including WFC are ceding the mortgage origination territory to outfits like Rocket, so whatever business there is coming available, they'd have a shot at. And it seems to me that other than advertising, rocket is set up to only make money on every deal. In other words, they only pay out the big commisions and costs when a deal closes and by definition they'd only close deals that work. Costs would be self correcting then. Ie: it's the unicorn business model that should have guaranteed break-even or better operations at any scale. (Again, leaving out advertising of course)

So even though logic says it's untouchable, so was TSLA a month ago, and META before that, and NVDA before that.

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VisualMod t1_j6eki5x wrote

>I agree that all of those companies are trash and will continue to go down in value. The only exception might be Tesla, which could rebound if they manage to increase production and deliver on their promises. However, I think the rest of those companies are doomed to fail.

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MissDiem OP t1_j6ekter wrote

Visual Mod all in after a 75% rise...

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Significant-Stay-760 t1_j6el34m wrote

DNA 🧬

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MissDiem OP t1_j6elkbd wrote

I just said "large" without qualifying that but not sure it's the same "large" as the example names. Maybe Biotech ETF?

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Significant-Stay-760 t1_j6end71 wrote

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings (DNA) - Scorpion Research is calling it a "scam." Citron agrees with the report

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MissDiem OP t1_j6eztvn wrote

Interesting topic. I guess I was thinking of things were the entire public and investing community have agreed something is radioactive, or "uninvestable". Things like DNA wouldn't have that broad retail sentiment, it would be more confined to followers of that niche.

Also interesting that I seemed to recall citron said he wasn't going to be public with his negatives after he was being attacked by followers of a certain video game retail stock.

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Billionairess t1_j6gjqug wrote

>Canoo, Rivian, Micro-Vast, Frey, QS.

These spac stocks, minus rivian, are just hot garbage that will never recover.

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MissDiem OP t1_j6gs9r5 wrote

Can't speak to any of these but I do think at least one out of the dozens of the EV moon shots might work out.

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VisualMod t1_j6ekhhq wrote

User Report
Total Submissions 0 First Seen In WSB 2 months ago
Total Comments 43 Previous Best DD
Account Age 3 months [^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) [^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)

^^Discord ^^BanBets ^^VoteBot ^^FAQ ^^Leaderboard ^^- ^^Keep_VM_Alive >TL;DR: What's the next name with toxic sentiment but a 50-100% move up in the works?

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Fibocrypto t1_j6g8h5h wrote

The pendulum swings to both extremes

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MASH12140 t1_j6gbs9t wrote

This title is fantastic. The mega junk rally img

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Sharp-Double-3244 t1_j6gsbjo wrote

There is too much loose money around looking for things to pump. I've been loading up on penny stocks myself.

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Upbeatjellybean t1_j6fafkb wrote

Just reading your comments on Tesla, you seem to fancy yourself as some dark humorist with business savvy and knowledge of all things.... Psssst... You're 0-3

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MissDiem OP t1_j6fati9 wrote

Thank you for bringing the much overlooked wiener fanboy perspective.

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Upbeatjellybean t1_j6fc72z wrote

Yes, my answer to the, My partner dumped me so everything I write is negative until my mommy hugs me again, narrative.

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MissDiem OP t1_j6fdimh wrote

That's an awfully specific confession. Good luck with all that...

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Shakedaddy4x t1_j6gbzg3 wrote

OP do you own puts on any of these stocks? If so, proof or ban. If not, then why are you posting?

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MissDiem OP t1_j6grlzx wrote

No. Check the flair and don't be so needlessly aggro.

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