I'd put the chances at way less than 100%. I don't even think it's likely. The country is full of brainwashed morons who actually believe they are a superpower, Ukrainians want to be "liberated", and a whole bunch of obviously false bullshit. The smart ones have either left the country or are silent out of fear. People don't work that way. If you present them with evidence that runs counter to their worldview, they will just double down and dismiss it. Putin will just offer up some alternate reality where the whole war isn't his fault, blame the west and/or something else, prepare for round 2, and the brainwashed masses will eat it up. There is also the issue of no alternatives. Everyone who has any slight chance has blood on their hands with the war.

Putin gets overthrown when the war impacts average Russians ability to support their basic needs, when they can't afford to buy food. Nothing even close to that has happened yet. It may not. But that's what it will take.