Skrewrussia t1_ja6s5qj wrote on February 27, 2023 at 6:53 AM

Reply to comment by Reptard77 in Putin casts war as a battle for Russias survival by R1ckCrypto

Do we still think russia will lose?
I mean if the chinese supply them with weapons, they could still win right?
I really dont know how things really are, theres too much news to sort through.

Plus, I just read that it might be possible the US pull out their support, is this also true?

BobbyP27 t1_ja6x2bz wrote on February 27, 2023 at 7:57 AM

What exactly would a Russian “win” look like? They’ve turned Europe away from dependence on Russian energy exports. They have demonstrated that their military is far inferior to the strength it was perceived to have a year ago. They have made every neighboring country terrified of Russian aggression, prompting significant rearmament of European countries. Even if they destroy Ukraine’s military, they will be left with a huge country of people who hate them who they will have the choice of either trying to occupy in the face of a terrible insurgency campaign for decades, or to withdraw, and basically let Ukraine rebuild itself but with a blood soaked hatred of Russia for generations.

bjarkov t1_ja736cd wrote on February 27, 2023 at 9:25 AM

The Russian objectives of the war have changed since the invasion began, starting with most of Ukraine under Russian control, then moving on to recognized annexation of the regions of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zhaporizhzhia. Probably a Russian "win" would be recognized annexation of any of the above regions as well as a recognition of Krim as a Russian territory.

The question is if any of these objectives are compatible with a Western view of a Ukrainian "win", which so far amounts to reverting to pre-2014 borders.

The diplomatic and political price of a Russian win, however, looks like it will be very high and will affect regional safety politics for decades to come, firmly estranging Russian interests from the western world

BobbyP27 t1_ja759bm wrote on February 27, 2023 at 9:55 AM

If that's what counts as a "win", then it does not bode well for Russia in the longer term if they do. The best they would get out of that is something like the situation in Northern Ireland, which involved decades of terrorist insurgency type fighting, and was only sort of resolved when the UK agreed to significant concessions of both autonomy and an agreed potential path to a united Ireland. Is Russia prepared to endure that?

bjarkov t1_ja77ir9 wrote on February 27, 2023 at 10:28 AM

I don't disagree with you. The conflict and the consequences are far-reaching and infeasible, with no good way back to normality.

But to Russian autocrats, this conflict is becoming a matter of honor. Putin (and probably his successor) will be committed to seeing this through, until the conflict reaches a state where a peace plan involving territorial concessions to Russia is acceptable to Ukraine and the west. I worry that the conflict will continue (and possibly escalate) for years before we've reached that state. At which point your scenario of insurgency kicks in.