Grunchlk t1_j9o8bxd wrote
Reply to comment by 93scaro in Iran acknowledges accusation it enriched uranium to 84% by bildo72
Iran has had the capability to build a bomb for at least 20 years. If they were trying to build one, they'd already have an arsenal full of them.
- Iran has mastered the fuel cycle. They have advanced centrifuges and thus enriching uranium to weapons grade is trivial for them. The bigger question is why haven't they?
- Iran has missiles capable of carrying a miniaturized nuclear warhead, yet they have only conventional warheads in their arsenal.
- Iran is believed to have conducted a number of implosion tests pre-2003. This would indicate they have enough knowledge for a trigger device.
Iran is using the threat of building a bomb as a tool for negotiations. Note how when the JCPOA was in effect Iran didn't enrich above 19.75%. Then once the US abandoned the agreement and forced the EU into non-compliance Iran cranked the purity up to 60+%. Now we're at 84%. Why would Iran keep increasing the purity while simultaneously letting everyone know? Because it's about securing a new deal.
However, it's also a warning that if anyone attacks Iran, they will purse a bomb and have one in less than 6 months.
3dio t1_j9oag6a wrote
6 months is plenty time to circumvent. I doubt this is anywhere related to being true.
There is no new deal for them on the horizon. In fact this proves the claim that the jcpoa was a scam to begin with and signed in bad faith.
Grunchlk t1_j9oscwk wrote
You don't believe Iran has mastered the fuel cycle? That's demonstrably true and universally accepted. The UN, IAEA, US, EU, etc, all agree that Iran has. The fact that they can trivially produce 84% HEU is also proof.
You don't believe Iran has missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads? I'll defer to Uzi Rabin, the father of Israel's missile program, who says they do and also says their missiles are quite more advanced that people believe.
You don't believe Iran has conducted implosion tests? This is one of the major sticking points of the JCPOA, the US and UN want access to Parchin because they have evidence that Iran did exactly that.
If you believe all these things are lies then you believe that Iran isn't capable of building a bomb, and thus any talk of such is propaganda.
3dio t1_j9ospvo wrote
>If you believe all these things are lies then you believe that Iran isn't capable of building a bomb, and thus any talk of such is propaganda.
Iran can have a bomb within a week. The question is how many of them can they make and maintain in the long term
Grunchlk t1_j9ousn1 wrote
I don't disagree that Iran could make one quickly (miniaturization would take a bit longer though.) I do disagree that they're already making one because they've had this capacity for 20 years now. 2002 is when they performed the implosion tests:
As of now Iran benefits more from threatening to cross the line that it does if it actually crosses it. Iran is hoping to leverage the threat to get a better deal. Maybe that won't work because of their support of Russia in the Ukraine War. However, that's what they're likely doing. If they cross the line then they likely get attacked by Israel, KSA and the US as well as max sanctions, embargoes, blockades, etc.
I highly expect Iran to state they'll be converting the TRR back to using HEU (as per its original design) instead of LEU. Then they'll have a legitimate reason for needing large quantities of weapons grade uranium. This puts them as close to that line as possible without crossing it.
If Israel, the US and KSA attack then Iran will make a bomb immediately and detonate one in the desert signalling the attacks are an existential threat which they'll respond to with maximum force.
The benefit of the JCPOA wasn't that it prevented Iran from having the know-how to make a bomb, it was that it ensured all the monitored uranium wasn't diverted and that it was converted to fuel rods (or at least stored in UN monitored containers/locations.) It also gave the IAEA broader ability to monitor for a parallel program.
3dio t1_j9pvess wrote
Here's to hoping no more wars and that the situation can somehow defuse itself
pp_in_a_pitcher t1_j9p9zve wrote
They probably already have a few nukes I would assume
ty_kanye_vcool t1_j9p8q5j wrote
If Iran is pursuing a bomb the attacks aren’t going to stop. They will do what they have to to stop it from being a reality.
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