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TThor t1_je6tzl9 wrote

Reply to comment by NoMoreProphets in Russia Says Ukraine Using Long-Range US Artillery by TallAd3975

The reality is, no matter what hardlines they claim, the only actual hardline would be a direct military assault on the entirety of moscow. Anything less will never inspire a nuclear strike, because, so long as moscow isn't under attack, Russia will still have far more to lose by firing the nuke than whatever they gain.

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[deleted] t1_je73vhf wrote

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FlamingMothBalls t1_je76xzq wrote

it's also his own best interests. No western power will make a move to dethrone Putin. He can lose Crimea and a have a full-blown civil war inside Russian territory, and none of that would threaten his reign - I don't think.

It would have to get a lot, lot worse inside Russia for him to want to lash out, and by the time that happens, he would lack the military and elite support to have such an attack take place.

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Successful_Ad_6248 t1_je78nek wrote

I do not even think it will get to a stage where he will get a full blown civil war. I mean, look at the protests at the start of the war, those were pretty huge and it died down. Of course, the protests will be even larger if he loses Crimea but I do not really see a pathway to outright rebellion. I mean, his army is puttin down refuseniks very effectively now. Unless the officers rebel too of course, but I cannot foresee that happening, at least not yet. Maybe once the officers realise they have a high chance of dying when US enters the fray, only then they will rebel.

Again, US should tilt Putin calculations such that losing Crimea is an acceptable risk.

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FlamingMothBalls t1_je79avb wrote

I was thinking the same thing. Putin's reign is secure. He's not going anywhere, and because of that, he won't suicide himself by starting a nuclear war.

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Successful_Ad_6248 t1_je7bfnl wrote

Ironically, the fact that Putin's reign is secure might be better for Ukraine's prospects for retaking Crimea, because Biden might just decide to support Ukraine for retaking Crimea.

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FlamingMothBalls t1_je7ceju wrote

true. tho I wonder if it's physically, militarily possible.

Real Life Lore had an interesting take on the issue. Not sure how on the money the video is, but it would be a massacre to try to take it by force. It's always been (except for 2014 when Ukraine had no choice but to mostly give it up without a fight).

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Successful_Ad_6248 t1_je7hdq8 wrote

Well, the alternative plan he talked about where Ukraine walks across the swamp, the Syvash, is probably the best plan. I have not yet seen any detailed operational plans discussed anywhere else so I will not say it here. I suggest you look at the Siege of Perekop, where the Soviets walked across the swamp, the Syvash, to flank enemy positions and take them by surprise. I think it might be workable for light infantry. Nevertheless, the Soviets took heavy casualties in taking Crimea.

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