Pryamus t1_j4cw7iw wrote
Reply to comment by JaydanBruls in Missile attack on Ukraine: two thermal power plants damaged, one stops producing electricity by Klaasie765
Which is kinda the worst thing. Even if it all stops tomorrow. And it won't.
These 8 million refugees will, most likely, not go back. And investments into rebuilding will be literal cabal contracts with draconian conditions (because the higher the risk, the more money will the investor demand back).
div414 t1_j4dos4i wrote
It’s like the Marshall plan never happened in your history.
The US financed the rebuilding of vastly more deteriorated economies of Japan & Europe at a loss to protect the integrity of democratic institutions against Communism and its totalitarian regimes.
Sounds similar eh? Except now the US should expect the EU to pick up the tab on rebuilding Ukraine.
FondleMyPlumsPlease t1_j4e9og8 wrote
Black rock seems to be set to start buying which will probably, mostly be used to rebuild so it’s unlikely other governments will foot a heavy bill.
div414 t1_j4eilbc wrote
It’s a bit more complicated.
BlackRock is an advisor to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine. They will advise on where, and which investments are most useful to the Ukrainian economy.
This is quite litterally nation building.
BlackRock can act as a bridge financier to immediately deploy capital to help Ukraine while the slower decision making process of governments goes through its motions.
The EU and US will foot this bill, while financing Ukraine to extremely favourable terms.
There is absolutely zero benefits to burdening Ukraine with unserviceable debt. This isn’t Greece.
haarp1 t1_j4fku11 wrote
> The EU and US will foot this bill, while financing Ukraine to extremely favourable terms.
if it will be a loan, it will mean that Ukr will be a vassal state for the next 50-100 years. and it's already one of the poorest euro countries (and most corrupt). i've read that it will cost 1T€ to fully rebuild it. their govt budget for 2021 was only $40B.
they will apparently also have to pay for US weapons (not 100% sure, it might be offset with captured equipment).
div414 t1_j4fx7yx wrote
Please research the Marshall plan, and how the UK finished paying it off a few years ago.
Nation rebuilding for the victor doesn’t work like you think it does.
haarp1 t1_j4gagb2 wrote
> Nation rebuilding for the victor doesn’t work like you think it does.
any chance that you can give a quick TLDR? was it a no-interest loan? still, UK has a lot more of GDP or govt budget than Ukraine (1T vs 40B). ukraine exports mostly steel (they can probably forget about that now) and agri stuff (mostly intact but with xx % losses).
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5c/Ukraine_exports_in_2013.jpg
div414 t1_j4ggmbw wrote
Out of the 13B allocated to the Marshall Plan, only 1.2B were loans. Everything else were grants.
Russia has 300B seized by Western institutions. Another source of probable funding.
MGMAX t1_j4ehpps wrote
Somehow I doubt the EU will pick up the stick, and US has trouble with isolationists moaning about "billions wasted on Ukraine" as it is. No, our future isn't bright, but it's sunshine compared for what's russia got in store for us.
div414 t1_j4ei22o wrote
The future is bright relative to the present.
Creative destruction is in full effect - physically and ideologically. Hope and trust over doom and gloom.
Torifyme12 t1_j4elst4 wrote
Yeah the EU isn't picking up the stick, it's *loaning* money to Ukraine already vs our gifts.
ABoutDeSouffle t1_j4ftmp7 wrote
Everything under lend/lease must be returned or paid for
[deleted] t1_j4dtvxt wrote
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mulitu t1_j4g2jxt wrote
The EU is not in such a good shape
div414 t1_j4ggvjq wrote
In better shape than 1945.
Test19s t1_j4dcohb wrote
Historically migration from poorer countries to richer ones benefits both sides as the migrants, even if they don’t return, send money back and/or vacation in the old country. In a more zero-sum economy due to tightening supply chains that might not work though.
Pryamus t1_j4df2r0 wrote
This one will not be different I am afraid: more and more refugees to both Europe and Russia. Right now the borders are closed for adult men, but will eventually reopen, and they will go earn money there and rejoin families. It’s the ones that stay who will have very hard years ahead, if not decades.
[deleted] t1_j4f3j7s wrote
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SuperSprocket t1_j4fpkl0 wrote
History can be misleading, things do change and that needs to be recognised, economic development being a big one.
There are only so many jobs for refugees in a first world nation with limited low skill employment options. Even a relatively similar nation like Ukraine will have this issue; the demand is for expertise not general workforce.
They will struggle to find decent employment, and may do better to migrate home after the war.
a7iiiShooter t1_j4e337t wrote
They need to build factories to ship houses instead of building houses on site. The cost per home could be 3-5 times cheaper building at scale like the boxable homes. Wouldn’t be the nicest, but much better than taking 6 months to finish every home.
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