Hell no! 😂 Made good money with that stock about 2 years ago. That one and SPCE were cash cows back then!

Impossible to explain predictive analytics to you I guess. All predictions of the future come with a margin of error. A 5% margin of error in a predictive analysis is extremely good. I should know. I do this for a living. Not in financial markets, but in business trends and inventory management. Same skills, different datasets

My prediction is for 6 months, not for 2 days. So closing price today at $308.54 is 2% under what I predicted as a low ($407). If I am wrong by 2% for a week out of 6 months, I consider that a win. Specially if I’m correct for the other 5 months and 21 days. Don’t you think it is too early for conclusions on a 6 month prediction made 2 trading days ago? Now, if in a month SPY is down to $380, then I would be the first to say that I was wrong. But, if in the next 5 months SPY makes it to $427 or higher and stays above $400, I will consider my prediction for the 6 month period pretty darn accurate.

That is definitely better than 0DTEs. Good job! You should double down on that play. I have a well seasoned ego, not easily bruised, no worries.

Not $390s. It’s barely under $400. But if you are so sure it is going to $390, you should buy puts. $390 strike expiring this Friday is going for $0.70. Super cheap. Go for it!

Again, we shall see. Patience. Sit back and watch.

It’s Excel. Puts on MSFT then!

I wouldn’t call it lose! This is not meant to be an exact day by day prediction. As long as the week is directionally correct, this will hold.

Exactly!

Yes, I understand how it’s calculated. I obviously wrote the same formulas used to continue calculating it adding in the predicted future daily values. Maybe, you don’t understand how it’s calculated and you don’t understand that a whole week of trading is only 1/10 of the 50 day moving average. So one week or one day can’t skew it much.

We might need a degree in Economics and one in Finance to explain that! But, let’s keep things simple. Look at the value of the dollar in the FX market. Right now it is around $103 in relationship to other currencies. When the dollar drops stocks go up and when the dollar increases stocks go down. The dollar was at $116 in October, so it went down to $101 and stocks went up. Then over the last couple of weeks it has gone a little up to $103 so stocks dropped a little. The dollar NEEDS to get under $100 soon to not crush emerging markets. When it gets under $100, global markets work optimally and US stocks will be in a bull market again. For now they’ll be steady around this range until it drops under $100.

I’m looking at SPY data starting in February 1993 through today. TA and the 50, 200 day moving average “theory” has held up over the last 30 years. So maybe now it breaks, who knows! But I don’t think so.

I invested little last week on calls on RTX and bought BA and GD shares. Also bet on travel, JETS and OOTO. Took the weekend to look at it, so that I’ll know how to position this week. Thinking of just buying 3x leverage ETFs: SPXL and TQQQ

I’ll add it in. Don’t worry, it will be in by market open on Tuesday

The day marked on the graph is supposed to say Friday February 17 (last trading day before the predictive analysis). Sorry for the typo.

Yes, agreed. But SPY will not go down to $380. That’s below the 200 day moving average. It will stay above that line in the next few months.

I tried plotting that scenario but it didn’t work from a technical perspective from where it is at the moment. It would be something like a black swan event that would make the 50 day moving average sink quickly under the 200 day moving average when it just crossed it going upwards a couple of weeks ago. So maybe if Putin does use nuclear weapons that could happen, or if the U.S. president dies, or the debt ceiling drama escalated and US defaulting on its debt. That last one will not come until June-July. That’s why my graph shows a dip in those months.