should’ve seen them lower tesla guidance before ER

I use Elmer’s glue, cheap and effective

as long as ER estimates are lower than reality it’s bullish. The average idiot doesn’t realize estimates were giga low to begin with

There’s a monthly gap fill that it’s going for. I’m shorting it 2 weeks before ER if I see a top or if it’s already doing it’s thing and no top in sight I’ll buy mid/end of march puts

100%

Yea lol this the last time we seeing these valuation for a long long time. See whose selling most and short them for ER. I’m eyeing NVDA for a drop to 165

Looks like u bought spy at the top and sold at the last bottom

Interesting. FOMC on feb 1st so I wonder how that will turn out. I just need a ~300% to get my portfolio back. Shits been painful

yea this next year is tough ngl. February and march are easy to guess as dumps. January is the dice roll since there’s a wide range of how far it can pull back.

Kinda curious since I know u keep track of data but how often are the JPM collar targets reached by the stock are some point during the quarter.

I mean markets do what they want regardless of data, data is a good excuse. If they set us up intentionally for a miss then it would be a good bet to see markets need and excuse to tank. Thing is they can’t run the whole “pivot” talk anymore since dot plot was released and first cut is confirmed by years end. So nothing sooner will be priced in. Now we will start worrying more about a recession and suh

I’m saying a 6.4 estimate my bad if unclear.

I think CPI will come 6.6-6.9 and to be safe in my personal estimate we can call it 6.5-7 though 6.6 was already a semi safe bet.

I’m saying if the CPI estimate from wallstreet is 6.4 then off of my personal estimates the CPI will come higher than wallstreet has priced in which will be a “hot” CPI.

interesting that’s a 0.6% decline which lines up with the current slope. I think we come higher. Even at no increase MoM. it’s 0.3 yoy so like a 6.7 I think we see and a crash. So ideally a CPI estimate sub 6.5 so a 6.4 low ball would set us up for a failure since even at the current slope we would miss. would also mark first cpi lower than its 2021 counter part.

A second methodology: Nov was 7.1 counter part was 6.8

Rn counter part is 7 which would narrow the yoy down 2 assuming no inflation. So relatively speaking it’ll comes at 6.9

So my range will be 6.7-6.9 for an estimate.

Wiggle room is 6.6-7.0

So a 6.5 estimate or lower would cause a dump if I’m jumbling my math correctly. But we’ll rule out the 6.5 and make it’s a 6.4 if current slope persists.

In conclusion 6.4 and below is safe to say a crash. 6.6-6.9 is a dice roll. 7 is an easy pump beat.

I hope they are low af. Anything 6.6 and below in estimates should result in a dump CPI day imo.

whats the CPI estimates at?

Fml feb 1st

grinch Monday. No more green.

Bear market hasn’t even started smh

how’d u know

Exactly!!

inflation won’t jump but a 2% today compared to pre hyper inflation is like 30%

that’s true inflation, we need to see DEFLATION. Fed needs to shrink their sheet by a few trillion. if there is high $ demand it’s easier to tighten since we export our inflation away. Inflation happens once, u printed the money, that’s it, it’s been added to the supply and now we feel its effects. Problem is a lot of it went into stocks hence true inflation only 30% and not 100% where it should be since we doubled dollar supply. Stocks soaked up that 70%. Now when stocks go down, that money comes out and is spent which adds that 70% back into the system. Granted it’s not that direct but sort of. CPI won’t increase because with the revised fake formulas and referencing prior years. Hyperinflation report compared to a hyperinflation report will come out to normal inflation. hence CPI did peak. MoM likley didn’t.

True hyperinflation hasn’t shown it’s teeth. Problem is if it does show it’s teeth other countries will dump the dollar which will cause a inflationary spiral hence ECB also hiked along with USA. Everyone is hiking because everyone printed their currency into worthless territory.

The goal of the fed is simple: crush the world economy by causing the dollar to strengthen so that everyone hoards it and favors it over other currencies to prevent the dollar dumping. Europe collapse is inevitable since their banks never even recovered from 2008 and their collapse will bail out America.

Powell is playing 5D chess. It isn’t about how high, it’s about how high and how long America can stay in high rates so that we don’t default on our own debt before other countries do

I have history books that I stole from the future, we won’t push past 415. Even with me interfering with the timeline

not on this bear rally at least hehe

The democrats in California are handing out stimmy checks… all the Ukraine aid adds to inflation indirectly.

but why not push 430 to stop out the 415-425 shorter? Then push 440 to stop 430 shorters and infinitely to new ATH?

Probably busts through it then comes back down