Markdd8

Markdd8 t1_ivryxpn wrote

Good news for both sides. Russia was probably advised by India. NY Times article Nov. 6: Could India Help Broker Peace in Ukraine?

>In July, when a critical deal was brokered...to free up millions of pounds of desperately needed Ukrainian grain, India played an important behind-the-scenes role in helping sell the plan to Russia, which had been blockading the grain ships....Two months later, when Russian forces were shelling the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine....India stepped in again and asked Russia to back off.

India, which supports Russian interests, is apparently counseling Russia towards wiser action for its successful conclusion of the war. NY Times:

>The Ukraine crisis and the escalating tensions between Russia and the West are testing India’s tightrope act. It continues to buy Russian oil, lots of it, which angers Ukraine and the U.S. And it has refused to support resolutions at the United Nations that have condemned Russia’s aggression.

Kherson is too difficult for the Russians to hold. Also, giving up the city is a concession to the Ukrainians. Russia still holds the west side of the Dnipro River, with its access to the critical canal that provides water to Crimea. From a geopolitical perspective, it seems Russia's best bet is to let this war to slide into a Frozen Conflict, along existing combat lines. Halt further expansionist attacks, defend what they have taken. Russia is involved in several Frozen Conflicts.

The Ukrainians, legitimately, have high demands: Russia evicted from all the land it has taken. This includes Crimea and its [historically important Sevastopol Naval Base] (https://www.rbth.com/world/2014/03/04/the_importance_of_sevastapol_for_russia_33479) and all land Russia has taken in Donbas.

Is the Ukrainian objective of full eviction of the Russians practicable? Difficult question, but one thing seems clear: Only foreign military support will enable it. If Russia takes a defensive approach, backs off on provocative measures such as threatening to set off nukes or blow up the Nova Kahkhovka dam or escalating the drone bombing of eastern Ukrainians cities, western support for Ukraine's full goals will probably decline.

Russia will have to accept that Ukraine will spin off to West. Ukraine will receive militarization under western powers, and the country will get massive rebuilding (hopefully). These outcomes ought to be a foregone conclusion to all.

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