NinjaLanternShark

NinjaLanternShark t1_isrex37 wrote

Reply to comment by nasanu in Spooky artificial intelligence found to accurately predict the future by 99% by Stephen_P_Smith

The concept of tuning your forecast to a desired accuracy is actually pretty interesting. For example, say you need a weather forecast that's 99% accurate. A meteorologist will then tell you how far into the future you can go. In this case it might be 10 or 15 minutes. It might sound silly to us but there's probably a use case for it.

I don't imagine the folks at the Max Planck institute are slouches, so I'm assuming there's a use case for scanning some literature and determining some outcome with 99% accuracy. It's probably not a very profound prediction, but again, it wouldn't surprise me if there's a perfectly reasonable use case.

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NinjaLanternShark t1_isrd66p wrote

Reply to Spooky artificial intelligence found to accurately predict the future by 99% by Stephen_P_Smith

tl;dr:

> researchers at the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Light in Germany asked the artificially intelligent software to predict how AI progressed.

> They did this by feeding the AI information from academic papers dating all the way back to 1994. [..] The AI was then asked to make predictions about how artificial intelligence has developed over the years based on the scientific studies it knew about it.

So given some body of research, forecast the future arc of developments in that field.

Achieving 99% accuracy is just a matter of framing the questions right.

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