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NinjaLanternShark t1_isrd66p wrote

tl;dr:

> researchers at the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Light in Germany asked the artificially intelligent software to predict how AI progressed.

> They did this by feeding the AI information from academic papers dating all the way back to 1994. [..] The AI was then asked to make predictions about how artificial intelligence has developed over the years based on the scientific studies it knew about it.

So given some body of research, forecast the future arc of developments in that field.

Achieving 99% accuracy is just a matter of framing the questions right.

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Level-Infiniti t1_isresj2 wrote

yeah, article title makes it sound like the show Devs. worth a watch for those that haven't seen it

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chantsnone t1_isrf6f7 wrote

Loved devs. I’d love more things exploring that idea.

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Veearrsix t1_isrluo7 wrote

Seriously, fantastic show. Fun to see Nick Offerman in something a little different for him.

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fuckswithboats t1_isrugkv wrote

Wish they had stretched that show out longer. The premise was delicious

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icefire555 t1_isrj04e wrote

Yeah, I'm 100% sure we would have never learned about it if it was able to predict the stock market with that accuracy.

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tucci007 t1_isrvtbl wrote

feed it all the information in existence about chickens, then everything about roads

then ask it, why did the chicken cross the road

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ashakar t1_isrs42z wrote

Nothing ever will because you have too many irrational actors.

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GregTheMad t1_isrt3lj wrote

How many? 8 billion? That's not much when it comes to computing. Most of them probably can even be grouped together. Depending on what you ask maybe only a handful is needed, like world leaders. The only challenge is getting the model right, and feeding it good data.

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ashakar t1_isrtkkv wrote

I was specifically referring to the stock market. Shopping and ad algorithms already work pretty damn good at predicting what to show you.

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icefire555 t1_isrug5t wrote

Yeah. well even if it was 75% accurate at predicting the stock market it would be a secret till death.

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Sonamdrukpa t1_iss8hiw wrote

If you could get 50.1% your grandchildren would be buying islands in the Caribbean for their grandchildren

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ashakar t1_isrul8o wrote

Black swan events would still fuck you. They are already using AI bots to make trades.

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starfleetdropout6 t1_isrxpzb wrote

"We" would never know. The elite would keep it a secret to enrich themselves.

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theminglepringle t1_isrukcr wrote

That’s easy you just have to have enough money own a lot of shares in a company sell them all watch as the price plummet’s because everyone one else who own shares in it get scared then buy back your shares or more for a lower price rinse and repeat

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nasanu t1_isrdy1u wrote

>Achieving 99% accuracy is just a matter of framing the questions right.

Or in other words ask a bunch of crap, discard all the incorrect answers, then hold up the rest as proof of how accurate you are.

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NinjaLanternShark t1_isrex37 wrote

The concept of tuning your forecast to a desired accuracy is actually pretty interesting. For example, say you need a weather forecast that's 99% accurate. A meteorologist will then tell you how far into the future you can go. In this case it might be 10 or 15 minutes. It might sound silly to us but there's probably a use case for it.

I don't imagine the folks at the Max Planck institute are slouches, so I'm assuming there's a use case for scanning some literature and determining some outcome with 99% accuracy. It's probably not a very profound prediction, but again, it wouldn't surprise me if there's a perfectly reasonable use case.

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Read_ity t1_isrqnn1 wrote

Just tell me who to bet on Sundays and we’re good

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tucci007 t1_isrvq1z wrote

> feeding the AI information from academic papers dating all the way back to 1994

this is how it will become self-aware

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UNODIR t1_isrp5mh wrote

Future can not be predicted because it is not determined. You can foresight (not forecast) different futures.

So whatever this is - it reminds me of the kraken that predicted football games. You can believe it if you want.

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