Savage_X

Savage_X t1_j6pjhhd wrote

Growth prospects have varied wildly over the last few years. From things like Covid changing the entire consumer and corporate landscape, to inflation and the Federal Reserve whipsawing interest rates around dramatically, there is little way to predict what is going to happen even in the near future.

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Savage_X t1_j39f927 wrote

Bonds lost inflation adjusted 20% last year. Stocks lost inflation adjusted 25%. Its a little better, but retirees had few good options.

> Funnily enough, your analogy regarding cash is absolutely wrong in this case. Someone who had their entire 401k moved to cash in 2021 would be doing better than someone who's 401k was mostly stocks.

Not sure how I was wrong when that is what I said :) Sitting in cash and "only" losing the inflation amount was the best investment. Which is still crappy, and only can be a considered "good" in hindsight.

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Savage_X t1_j38rfdb wrote

> shifting the value to more stable, if less growth, forms of investment

That was not really an option when interest rates were at zero. And bonds got hammered in 2022 regardless. Sit in cash while inflation is at 8% was like the "best" horrible investment decision to make for retirees. This was the hangover from the rager party - little you could do to avoid it.

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Savage_X t1_j38q2ov wrote

It seems like the labor market is functioning pretty well. Kind of surprising given the scope of fiscal/monetary policy that both Trump and Biden have undertaken in recent years. A pleasant surprise if you will.

I am not trying to attach a political agenda (honestly, not even sure what you are trying to imply).

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Savage_X t1_j37jemm wrote

I know we all love to hate on the Fed and TPTB, but to me this looks suspiciously like a best case soft landing in the US.

Very little unemployment with moderate wage growth. Enough to encourage and reward workers, but not enough to cause runaway inflation.

On the flip side, we finally have sensible interest rates so you have less money going into non-productive things, inflating asset prices, and causing widespread wealth inequality.

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