Tinchotesk

Tinchotesk t1_ixhhr3d wrote

> extrapolate how that technology will derive even ten years from now

Extrapolating exponential growth from a short sample of exponentially-looking growth is incredibly naive. First, because we have well established examples of how progress stagnates after an initial crazy period (compare the first 50 years of aviation with the next 70, or the first 12 years of space exploration compared with the next 53). Second, because the logistic problem exists; as described by the logistic equation, the (always) limited supply of resources quickly changes exponential growth into a plateau.

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Tinchotesk t1_iu6ueka wrote

Here is an answer from a mathematical and not biological point of view. It seems like moose cows breed more or less annually annualy from age 3 to 11. So I assumed that each female produces 2 females during her life, that is has calfs every other year and half are female; I assume they die at age 11. I'm ignoring all other factors, but just trying to give a perspective on how these things work.

With the above parameters, here is the female population every 10 years:

Year 1: 2

Year 11: 20

Year 21: 164

Year 31: 1277

Year 41: 9931

Year 51: 77181

Year 61: 599847

The point is that these processes are exponential, that is they grow pretty fast.

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