ZippyTheWonderSnail

ZippyTheWonderSnail t1_j9bfxhv wrote

I feel like this is a pedantic debate.

It is true that the statistics math works.

It is a non sequitur that therefore the conclusions are correct in a broader context than the sample warrants.

The data only tells us that, among the relatively small sample, there is a general consensus. However, the sample size is only large enough to draw conclusions on maybe a county level.

The sample would need to cover a broader sample of Texas citizens and be larger to be relevant. For 27 million people, you'd need a sample size of tens of thousands from a broad number of locations.

How many sock accounts do you have? I'm curious.

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ZippyTheWonderSnail t1_j8zxiv2 wrote

Shall I make cite examples where polls were laughably wrong? Polls that used the same math?

Polls are only as good as the questions asked, and the data collected. The more local, the easier it is to get them right. A small sample size is a more accurate picture.

Any polling sample size needs to reflect the size of the group being sampled.

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ZippyTheWonderSnail t1_j8vg7xb wrote

Pollsters are often wrong. Most recently, look at the 2016 election. Not only wrong, but so wrong as to be laughable.

Polls are often designed by partisan agencies to deliver the message they want all the time. Does anyone trust a FOX poll?

The way questions are phrased can help deliver the results the pollsters are paid to deliver. Do you back EVIL thing X, or are you on the side of righteous thing Y?

There are also audiences that are polled. If pundits are paid to direct people to the poll, the poll will be directed by those audiences. The HMS "Boaty McBoatface" can attest to this.

I know that the math is right, but the data isn't trustworthy.

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ZippyTheWonderSnail t1_j8u2qya wrote

There are 27 million people in Texas. We don't even know if the people in the poll told the truth, were in Texas, or weren't simply bots.

1,200 is fine for opinion on your favorite pizza or sushi. It is just noise when it comes to opinions on energy in Texas.

Heck, most people in Houston aren't even from Texas, and many are not even from the US.

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ZippyTheWonderSnail t1_j8t5xue wrote

This was based on an online poll of 1,200 people. Don't get too excited. I mean, they wrote an entire treatise based on this tiny sampling of data - which is impressive, but how do they know if the people who voted were even in Texas?

I've been here a long time. Texas is an energy state, and the battle between ideology and reality is always ongoing.

For example, a local power plant turns emissions into diesel fuel, and then gives us rebates based on the sales. Of course, Texas is also number one in solar generation. Nothing wrong with either. On the ground, however, the cost of power in cities which invest and rely on Federally subsidized solar is 2 to 3 times that of places which rely on other sources.

More interestingly, the Department of Energy has recently admitted that the fastest and most efficient CO2 reduction could be attained by replacing coal-fired power plants with natural gas - which the US has plenty of.

What Texans want is energy that is driven by math rather than by politics. Some cities, like Round Rock, where there was a "solar revolution" went into revolt when electricity prices began driving lower income people from their homes. Water prices are already very high, and doubling electricity rates in a state that lives on AC was deadly.

Solar has a place, but solar power needs backup generators which run in parallel just in case. It needs to be carefully integrated into a complete system of cheap and reliable energy.

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ZippyTheWonderSnail t1_is736qd wrote

I wish I knew more about how Google, Facebook, Amazon, TikTok and other Silicon Valley companies are spying on us. What I do know is that "Incognito Mode" doesn't hide anything from anyone outside your home.

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