adultswim_antifa

adultswim_antifa t1_j1vrn04 wrote

Sure, I agree. The degree of speculation has been rising for decades and had gotten to truly absurd things like trading jpegs of cartoon monkeys. Bitcoin seems dumb to me, but the "forever ape" is the most absurd thing the market has ever produced in my opinion. That said interest rates are probably going down again eventually, even lower, and something even more incredibly fucked up awaits. The expansion of credit is the only thing keeping the economy alive and it makes the rich richer, and that is very popular with the rich people that determine policy so they're going to do it and ignore whatever weird shit that crops up as a result, until there are no future cash flows at all. Then maybe we'll change course when the absurdity can not be denied by anyone, maybe.

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adultswim_antifa t1_iy9j9i4 wrote

The more frequently the releveraging, the less leverage is safe. If I could borrow at 6% and pay it back in 20 years with interest, there's no limit to the amount I would borrow. But if you relever every day and risk margin call, obviously being levered a million times means you're bankrupt if the market ever goes down slightly once. The 3x ETFs are much less leverage and have much lower fees than what most of you dumbasses are doing with options (that means much less dumb). Long term they're probably on the wrong side of the curve, meaning they will be much more volatile with returns that aren't that much better than the 2x ETFs. Everyone doing HFEA got destroyed this year. They'll probably recover though unlike the option yolo crowd.

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adultswim_antifa t1_iy9btwy wrote

They don't perform 3x as well as stocks because they releverage every day and short term moves are mostly noise. So they are constantly buying tops and selling bottoms. If the market closes down today it will effectively sell to reduce leverage and that will slightly lower tomorrow's return if it moves back up. If the market closes up today, it will buy to increase leverage and that will slightly increase tomorrow's losses if it moves back down. That adds up over a year. The fees are no where near 10% per month.

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