On the contrary, you're assuming there will be no war, rather a simple collapse of civilization.

You underestimate the Fed's power, and the brutality of men. Not only will there being NOTHING else to invest in, but given the circumstances you could face legal or extralegal consequences for not participating in the war effort. In fact, it is unlikely you will be investing at all, but buying gear in order to participate. I don't know who you are, but it doesn't matter, you're going to get involved.

Come on. Americans complain about government debt no matter what it is. Out here in Kansas we complain about Topeka's use of money markets, which are overnight loans for when taxes and payroll don't match up. The Federal debt is the rough equivalent to a mortgage.

But more importantly, rising interest rates effect future debts and not current ones. If a company has a fixed rate mortgage for 7%, they will keep paying that no matter what the Fed does (although refinancing will be impossible).

And why the frick would people dump the dollar? It's such a cliche to predict its collapse that you said it with no logical connection to the topic at hand. The US government does all business in US dollars, meaning the more the government takes over the more the more people HAVE to use dollars.

Dude, it was easy to spot by what you thought "modern war" was like. What I say plagues even the Pentagon where most commanders assume the last big war plus recent tech trends equal "modern war." Also, most army commanders don't know a thing about strategic theory.

But an interesting point is that nuclear deterrence prevents major formalized governments from seeking conventional war, but there are many states that could breakup or spontaneously unify at any moment. There are also many points in history where large rogue armies sprung up overnight, and internal wars in countries where the conventional forces are either unable or unwilling to act, and extended periods when governments were defunct. You should not think all war is confined to conventional arms or insurrectionists.

I know, it was just a thought experiment

Dude, you're falling into the classic trap that the last decades of fights are "the future of war. " This simply isn't so.

But a key factor of any war that is that no one has any idea what they're doing. Not you, not me, not the politicians, not the commanders, not the grunts, not the drill sergeants, not the enemy, not anyone. Any major war effort is a chaotic mess that gets better as people fix stuff, then the war ends and everyone forgets about it.

Trade doesn't necessarily stop, but instead much of the trade that occurs goes through the US government

I wish. But no, Nothing exciting is happening.

Go away.

You lose

You lose.

Go away.

Yes, but you vastly underestimate how much money can be raised through taxes. Interest rates can be raised to get funding NOW, while increased tax revenue takes months or years to catch up (sort of like Uncle Sam's credit card).

And no, high interest rates tank the stock market, but profitable employment will still exist. Companies that are profitable NOW will continue to be profitable and grow naturally, but companies that seek rapid growth better have some in-demand service to provide immediately.

There's more than that, that just came up due to the thought experiment

This robot is surprisingly good.

This is a type of business that favors economies of scale. Not hard to do.

Frankly, I haven't heard of any other ad service out there. I know Reddit and Facebook make advertisers post directly on their platform, but who else does this internet-wide?

Your main position ain't too bad. Keep selling those calls.

Most people around here were into high growth stocks, myself included to a lesser degree. But that only worked due to the Federal money printer which wasn't sustainable.

We're talking envy from men who sexualize riches rather than girls who are into him. Fun fact: The most common thing that men lie about on dating profiles is their wage and their height.

Mr. Musk's companies are nothing compared to the economy. And if the situation was such that recession fears would create a recession, then we're in a bubble that needs popped anyway.

If you have a fortune, wouldn't you give the bulk of it to your kids?

Yeah. Artificially high demand has the same effect of artificially high valuations: Bubbles. If you'll recall, we were all buying stuff we don't need in 2021 and it simply was not sustainable.