ehsurfskate

ehsurfskate t1_jac4fjp wrote

You make some points but also have the underlying assumption of zero office tenants. With all the cost and devaluation of that work it might even be worth it for the owners to just hold on at 20-30% occupancy and hope the offices gradually fill back up. Plus, if the space is vacant they get tax breaks so the hit is not as bad.

Again, not saying it’s impossible but with a 100 million dollar investment owners will do everything they can to get that back before cutting bait and spending money on a reno.

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ehsurfskate t1_jaamank wrote

Right and "cheaper" is the issue. The landlord would need to do a ton of work, devalue an overleveraged building, and after everything end up with residential units that are "cheap" so there is no money to be made.

It would probably be better in the long run to tear down the buildings and put up residential in its place. That would be worth the tax subsidies.

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ehsurfskate t1_j9a9zln wrote

My prediction is that NYC will have the staying power for young people but will lose some for the 45-65 crowd who are already established and looking for a lifestyle arbitrage of living somewhere that has a lower cost of living and working remote most of the time.

For younger people my guess is the NYC draw of things to do, places to eat and experience, the potential of finding a mate and friends and the ability to build their network will persist.

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ehsurfskate t1_j677lji wrote

I’m not stuck anywhere and in my profession change and churn equal profit, I also work from home 3 days a week so not sure what you are on about.

I’m not sure why you are assuming it’s permanently gone either. Just as it changed to more wfh it can change back again. I hope it doesn’t but if we hit a recession and people need work they will go into the office if required.

I’m not saying it should not happen. I hope it does. I was just adding some context to the wide eyed people of this sun who may not know much about the commercial real estate market inner working besides - yay wfh new paradigm and yay more housing

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ehsurfskate t1_j64qt2t wrote

Didn’t say was impossible or that I haven’t done renos. We can make anything happen it’s just time and money that needs to be paid by the owner. Also those lower Manhattan Reno’s you are talking about are few in quantity and are very different buildings than the giant midtown office.

Financially design professionals like me would make a killing on these, these cost more to design than new builds in most cases. I can just say I work with these building owners and the financial incentive for conversions of giant midtown offices is not there. If it was it would already be happening on a massive scale.

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ehsurfskate t1_j64jxb4 wrote

There is ALOT you are missing and assuming with your assessment here.

First off is you are assuming there is no cash flow at all for these office spaces. There is and return to office continues to tick up. If it keeps going and if there is an event like a white collar recession employees will be more willing to go in and will have less bargaining power.

The second is you are assuming it would be more profitable to go residential. There are huge construction costs to make this transition, plus downtime where the building is empty and design costs. Residential is also less money per sf by ALOT.

The last and most important point is the value of commercial space versus residential. If you convert a building not only do you lose SF to get legal light and air plus egress for each unit, you lose huge value on the sf you do keep. This drops the value of your overall portfolio which you use to gain credit and borrow with (to the tune of tens of millions). These buildings are not all about cash flow for owners. They are giant stores of wealth for credit and borrowing.

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ehsurfskate t1_j40qyai wrote

This still doesn’t show what the first commenter was saying. I read the article and the jist of it seems to be that hate crime charges often get dropped since they are hard to prove and therefore it’s better to charge them with something that will actually stick. There seems to be a higher burden to prove it’s actually a hate crime and not just an assault beyond the attacker just being another skin color.

Anyways, the data I was asking for is data that shows “people who commit hate crimes against Asians get the charges dropped at a higher rate than hate crimes against other races”. This is what the commenter was claiming and nothing so far has supported this.

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