Honestly, I found Watson from over a decade ago in 2011 to be more impressive than recent language models like GPT-3.

AGI is a very different beast to what most researchers and tech companies are working on and progress in many relevant areas definitely hasn't been exponential.

There's still a long way to go before we have AGI. Today's systems aren't even close, and most of the research and funding is going towards fairly narrow domains like image generation. We'll be lucky to have it by 2050 imo.