Surur t1_iysjsiq wrote
Reply to comment by reboot_the_world in Solar energy in Europe will be 10 times cheaper than gas by 2030 by EnergyTransitionNews
Explain that to me like I am 5 years old.
You will need electricity in any case, so you have a fixed cost of say 3000 euro a year.
You buy 9000 euro of solar + battery and now you pay nothing per year (in theory).
In 3 years your system had paid itself back, and for the next 7 years your battery lasts, your electricity is without any additional cost, ie free.
Why is it not free?
The only reason I can think of is that you could have invested 9000 euro, but then you would still have spend 30,000 over 10 years, and you 9000 is unlikely to turn into 30,000 over 10 years.
reboot_the_world t1_iysnj8k wrote
>Explain that to me like I am 5 years old.
>
>You will need electricity in any case, so you have a fixed cost of say 3000 euro a year.
>
>You buy 9000 euro of solar + battery and now you pay nothing per year (in theory).
>
>In 3 years your system had paid itself back, and for the next 7 years your battery lasts, your electricity is without any additional cost, ie free.
>
>Why is it not free?
The 10 cent per kWh for photovoltaic and 28 cent per kWh for energy from storage is the cost over the lifetime of the system. Many things in your PV system will degrade. Mainly your storage and your inverter. But also your PV modules. In 25 years your modules degraded and new modules are much better. It will be more economical to change them.
When somebody buys an oil tank and oil for 9000 euro, nobody will think that he will then get his house warm for free thanks to not having a yearly energy bill. Everybody understand, that some day, he must buy new oil. This is exactly the same with an pv system, but you don't need to buy oil but inverters, storage and modules over and over again. Why is this so hard to understand? There is no free lunch.
SatanLifeProTips t1_iyspmti wrote
The WARRANTY on modern PV panels is 25 years. The projected lifespan of those panels is closer to 50 years. You’ll probably be replacing the inverters every 20 years. Longer if modern inverters use better quality caps.
The panels may drop in production a little bit. You’ll get 80% or the original capacity after a 3-4 decades. So size the system a little bigger than you need.
Batteries are also dropping in price rapidly so that is a tough one to judge. Modern LFP batteries are rated for 4000+ cycles. Sodium ion just became commercially available at $100/kWh and 4500 cycle rating. If you design your battery to only use half of it’s capacity any day those are 20-25 year batteries. They are claiming the gen 2 sodium batteries may hit 10,000 cycles at $50-$75/kWh within 3-4 years. Those will be 30 year batteries by the sounds of it.
reboot_the_world t1_iyss7lq wrote
>So size the system a little bigger than you need.
How do you do this, if you already used your whole roof?
Like i told you, the prime cost in northern germany for PV are around 12cent where i live. This was before the war. Now it should be around 15 cent.
Here is a study from one of THE research institutes in germany (sorry, only in german): https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/veroeffentlichungen/studien/studie-stromgestehungskosten-erneuerbare-energien.html
SatanLifeProTips t1_iyt1g2e wrote
Invest in energy efficiency if you are out of roof space. You can spend money on anything from better appliances to insulation to reduce consumption.
Or simply rely on your grid tie to make up the surplus. If you only meet 80% of your energy needs…. Well that is fine. You reduced your power bill by 80%. Stop worrying about 100% solutions.
As for expensive prices right now, ever hear about the chip shortage? China fucked up hard between covid lockdowns and the complete collapse of their power grid this year. The answer is patience, grasshopper. We’ll get back into a PV equipment price falling price cycle quickly enough. EVERYTHING is overpriced and expensive right now. All the forecasts are for the chip market to shift from famine to feast (glut) within 6-18 months. It is a 3+ year cycle for industry to ramp up and we are over half way there.
You’ll also probably see all sorts of rebate programs come and go. The governments of the world are offering all sorts of subsidies. Milk one.
You can also put a PV system on your garage, shed or even in the yard. We have a 3kW system on the old bus that we use as our RV and I am wiring a new breakout plug in my shop so that when the bus is plugged into shore power it will heat and cool my shop.
Surur t1_iysoxss wrote
Amortising the cost over the lifetime of the solar kind of ignores the concept of payback time, doesn't it, which is much more important for home users.
reboot_the_world t1_iyspsrg wrote
Are we having a conversation about "solar is free" or about "solar is a good investment"? Thanks to the war, our energy cost rose from 28 cent per kWh to 45 to 60 cent per kWh form an energy supplier. Having photovoltaic on the roof is an awesome investment.
Surur t1_iysr8p9 wrote
No, I dont think you understand the consumer viewpoint.
Because you have to make an upfront payment, and also because you cant opt out of electricity bills, getting solar is not just like switching to a cheaper electricity provider which sells energy at 28c per kwh.
Consumers have to decide if the upfront investment is worthwhile which is where the payback period comes in.
And obviously, after something is paid back, it's free afterwards.
reboot_the_world t1_iysvmf8 wrote
You mean the consumer that has no clue about economics?
You don't live for free in your own home. You need to invest in the preservation of it, or you have no house after a while. The same with photovoltaic. The components of your pv system have a finite lifetime. It will break down if you not renew parts of it all the time.
Here is a quote of a study from the fraunhofer institute from germany: In 2040, the electricity production costs are forecast to be between 3.58 and 6.77 cents/kWh for small PV roof systems and between 1.92 and 3.51 cents/kWh for ground-mounted systems. From 2024, the electricity generation costs of all PV systems (without battery storage) will be less than 10 cents/kWh. https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/veroeffentlichungen/studien/studie-stromgestehungskosten-erneuerbare-energien.html
Quote: 'Fraunhofer Society for the Advancement of Applied Research' is a German research organization with 76 institutes spread throughout Germany, each focusing on different fields of applied science (as opposed to the Max Planck Society, which works primarily on basic science). With some 29,000 employees, mainly scientists and engineers, and with an annual research budget of about €2.8 billion, it is the biggest organization for applied research and development services in Europe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraunhofer_Society
But i am sure that they only need to talk to you and you can convince them, that pv energy is for free after a short time. Sorry, but you are wrong.
Surur t1_iysw1lt wrote
I dont think you understand - its just another way of looking at the same thing, and one which makes a lot more sense.
But you don't seem to understand - pity.
You probably do not understand why people are so eager to install solar despite the costs actually going up this year, but let me explain - its because the payback period has reduced.
Like I said, pity.
reboot_the_world t1_iysxp56 wrote
I gave you an example. If you have an big oil tank and fill it full, you pay many years nearly nothing till it is empty you and you need to fill it again. It is totally stupid to say you have free energy, only because you paid the cost upfront and than many years nearly nothing.
This is the same for solar. You pay the cost upfront and then many years nearly nothing and than you pay again a big bunch of money to renew the parts of your system. Yes, like when you pay upfront to fill a big oil tank, you can think a few years, you get your energy for free, thanks to not getting a bill for a few years. But it is dead wrong.Hint: I have pv on my roof and i am not able to get drunk enough to think one second that i get the energy for free. Maybe i am not the right consumer, or maybe i have reality on my site?
The right thinking is, that you have energy cheaper than your neighbor without pv.
Surur t1_iysyypk wrote
> I gave you an example. If you have an big oil tank and fill it full, you pay many years nearly nothing till it is empty you and you need to fill it again.
That is a silly example, isn't it. Again, you are ignoring the payback period. You paid for your fuel ahead of time.
If you buy 2000L of fuel oil ahead of time and use it over a year, there is no payback period - it costs exactly the same as if you bought it month to month.
It's more like buying a hacked satellite dish and getting free TV.
You are investing in the capability, not the fuel.
reboot_the_world t1_iyt1vom wrote
If your bought the oil for 2000 Euro and thanks to the energy crisis, it cost now 10.000 Euro, you also save money.
But i understand now what you mean. You are right, it is a different view on the same thing.
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