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FlatRobots t1_j24r67o wrote

I don't get it, how can Starlink ever be profitable? I've seen various calculations and they all look terrible. 🤔

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johnla t1_j24ssck wrote

What are you looking at? They have over 1 million Starlink subscribers. They charge $100/month. That's $100M each month. 2020 article from Forbes said they earn $80M per launch. They're profitable right now. But to your point they spent crazy amounts of money. They're not worried about cashflow right now though.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/06/02/revisiting-spacexs-36-billion-valuation-after-its-first-manned-mission/

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VinceSamios t1_j2557hn wrote

What they charge for a launch, and what it costs space for a launch, are veeeery different numbers.

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NotShey t1_j2781ip wrote

What do you mean? Their costs are so much lower than everyone else's that they can pretty much charge whatever they feel like and people will pay it. You're not suggesting they are launching at a loss are you?

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VinceSamios t1_j27ud30 wrote

Definitely not at a loss. I'd be surprised if launch costs including satellites was more than £20m per launch. They're mass manufacturing satellite's, they're reusing rockets, etc.

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johnla t1_j27hf6f wrote

According Elon and other SpaceX guy, they suggest their cost is in the $10M range. Even if we double it to $20M. They still profit $47M since they charge $67M per launch.

I know there are tons of upfront costs of building those rockets. They’ve reused them so often now that I’m pretty sure they have paid for themselves a couple times over now.

Source for Launch cost: https://www.science.org/content/article/spacex-now-dominates-rocket-flight-bringing-big-benefits-and-risks-nasa

Source for launch price: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/spacex-raises-prices-for-launches-and-starlink-due-to-inflation.html

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FlatRobots t1_j2bgsfa wrote

I don't get it. Why do they earn money with launches when they put their own satellites into orbit? Where does that money come from? Not a "gotcha", I genuinely don't get it.

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johnla t1_j2ci9gw wrote

Their satellites provide Internet service which they sell.

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bulboustadpole t1_j24suil wrote

They're also selling their hardware at a massive loss. I've seen estimates that they lose around $500 per dish they sell based on tech channels tearing them down.

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trolldango t1_j24tc2r wrote

How many months of a subscription does that take to pay down? 5? How long will the average subscriber stay — a year? A decade? Until the well-loved Comcast decides to build into their remote location?

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bulboustadpole t1_j25oj75 wrote

No idea, but it seems to be around $100 a month. Considering Elon said starlink would need to use starship to not go bankrupt, I have no idea how this company will survive. Next you get into the issue with scaling this which is the biggest hurdle. To get more revenue you need more subscribers. More subscribers means you will need to launch more satellites. This gets you into basically a feedback loop. They've probably burned through billions so far and I can't see any viable way of recouping that loss in the future.

https://www.benzinga.com/news/22/10/29148563/elon-musk-says-starlink-is-still-far-from-cashflow-positive-any-support-is-super-helpful

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AmIHigh t1_j265qya wrote

What do you mean you don't know how it'll survive?

They complete starship.

They can keep getting investments in the meantime.

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Reddit-runner t1_j266hv0 wrote

>Elon said starlink would need to use starship to not go bankrupt, I have no idea how this company will survive

By using Starship to get more Starlink sats into orbit, presumably.

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bulboustadpole t1_j267pui wrote

It was supposed to be flying already and it isn't. That's a big deal. It still hasn't made a full test flight.

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Reddit-runner t1_j268b89 wrote

Since NASA is betting their entire crewed lunar landing missions on it, I'm quite confident Starship will launch next year or at least in 2024.

It's not like SpaceX only has one single rocket. The first of their two Starship factories is almost up and running.

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bulboustadpole t1_j26i7kk wrote

>I'm quite confident Starship will launch next year or at least in 2024.

And I'm confident we'll be on mars come 2025

And I'm confident Tesla's will be used as robotaxis in 2020.

And I'm confident the CyberTruck will roll off the line in 2021.

And I'm confident that hyperloop is the future and not a scam shell corporation

I'm confident about a lot of things.

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NotShey t1_j27rdsp wrote

The main thing holding it up currently are environmental concerns around the launch site. Red tape essentially. The rocket has already done low altitude flights and static fires. It appears to work. It's quite a bit further along than SLS was a year before it's first mission. I'm well familiar with the concept of 'Elon time' but Starship flying next year is well within the realm of plausible, as long as they can iron out the launch site issues.

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Reddit-runner t1_j280ql8 wrote

If you have any doubts about Starship you really should call NASA an give them a warning! They are betting two crewed lunar landing missions on Starship.

.

>And I'm confident that hyperloop is the future and not a scam shell corporation

You are confident about many things, but you seem to forget that Musk has nothing to do with Hyperloop beyond the one white paper he presented years ago and a small public competition. He never invested in any Hyperloop company or even touched the topic ever again.

You really don't have to like Musk. But don't lie to yourself and others about facts.

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