Submitted by masterile t3_10o3u5x in Futurology
khamelean t1_j6cgml8 wrote
Reply to comment by masterile in AI will not replace software developers, It will just drastically reduce the number of them. by masterile
You’re assuming that we can’t use AI to enhance our own biological capabilities…
BigZaddyZ3 t1_j6cgtx4 wrote
But as one person’s capabilities increase, that actually reduces the need for other people in the same way an AI would. So either way, this idea that we’re all just gonna make a living as coders is unrealistic.
khamelean t1_j6chkcm wrote
You’re only thinking about changes in supply. But the demand for applications of new technologies is almost infinite.
Of course at some point productivity becomes so high the idea of “working for a living” becomes unnecessary.
kushal1509 t1_j6clk57 wrote
Agreed, the more efficient we get the richer we become. AI will make society wealthier which will create demand for new products and services.
BigZaddyZ3 t1_j6chpr2 wrote
But as one entity becomes capable of more, that actually reduces the demand for other entities.
And the idea that demand for coding is infinite is just an unrealistic assumption.
khamelean t1_j6ciqxm wrote
No, increasing supply does not reduce demand.
I didn’t say infinite, I said almost infinite. Historically speaking the demand for new technology has only increased as new technologies become available. Obviously that can go on forever, but we are definitely several thousand years away from meeting demand.
BigZaddyZ3 t1_j6cj7hs wrote
If one person suddenly becomes capable of doing the same amount of work as 10 people, then it becomes only logical to only pay the one person to do the 10 jobs. Instead of paying 10 people to do one job. (Which would be way more expensive.) If one person’s capabilities increase, it does reduce the need (aka demand) for other employees. That’s just basic economics.
Memfy t1_j6cv352 wrote
For that specific position, yes. The world is in overall shortage of supply for such workers, and the overall demand is just increasing each year. So even if you replace 10 people with 1 person, those 10 people might still have other projects they could be working on unless you can mass produce the 10x worker and cover all the areas of expertise you need with such workers.
czk_21 t1_j6fq3od wrote
there is no guarantee there will be enough need for new applications, there wont be new tech every day and if that day comes AI will be the one leading advancement(and development)
if demand was "almost infinite" then every software developer would be multimillionaire nowadays
khamelean t1_j6frpvs wrote
No, demand is relative to cost. There are many things that people want, but it’s just to expensive to do, and not worth the cost.
As software tooling becomes more powerful, things that used to be expensive become cheaper and the cost/value proposition changes. That’s why new technological advancement constantly unlocks new demand.
czk_21 t1_j6j7kkg wrote
I guess there will be more demand but I disagree that demand is infinite or almost infinite, there is finite amount of humans and companies and these have finite demand as well
imgien for example there is software company making antivirus software, its enough if there are several companies like that, ppl dont need 1000s different antivir software several decent one is enough, there wont be really much bigger demand for more
when 1 programmer will be needed to do work of 10, that antivir company wont need the rest, yes they can speed up the work and improvement by keeping 1 or 2 aditional ppl- that would already mean company is about 20x more productive, there is only so much work that should or could be done on your product in small timeframe
some of those who will not be needed in their companies could go to some other projects, but their amount will be finite as well
masterile OP t1_j6ch8gj wrote
From an economical stand point you will not have any incentive to enhance human obsolete capabilities. You would rather invest in enhancing AI-based more advanced and productive capabilities.
nameTotallyUnique t1_j6chrbd wrote
Would you not buy a product that enhance your capabilities?
masterile OP t1_j6cikvt wrote
Yes, the same way people invest in playing better at chest. But if any professional player wants to find the best move will use a chess program.
khamelean t1_j6chrgt wrote
That’s making some pretty big assumption with absolutely no basis.
masterile OP t1_j6ciepk wrote
I was assuming for the sake of argument that human capabilities have been surpassed. I think the rest follows based in economic incentives.
khamelean t1_j6civce wrote
Economics incentives are a human concern. Once humans capabilities are surpassed, all the rules we know about economics go out the window.
masterile OP t1_j6cj1pv wrote
Nobody is going to hire a programmer to do a job a machine does in no time for virtually no cost.
Flat_Ad_2507 t1_j6cs8ko wrote
no it will be not for free. there is a weak point.
gaudiocomplex t1_j6cs9pl wrote
The idea that more jobs are coming out of this is beyond absurd.
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