Submitted by exploremore617 t3_119ep0l in Maine
Guygan t1_j9lv64a wrote
Reply to comment by [deleted] in CMP and Spectrum Outages by exploremore617
> You could easily give some kind of indication of how these things typically go
No, I can’t easily do that. Because it’s not predictable and it “typically” doesn’t go any typical way.
[deleted] t1_j9lvbw8 wrote
You can unless you're an idiot.
Guygan t1_j9lwcsa wrote
> You can unless you’re an idiot
Please enlighten us as to how non-idiots can accurately predict internet outages in and entire city of 20,000 residents.
[deleted] t1_j9lxvku wrote
You're in another comment telling this guy historical data is irrelevant - you should tell all the meteorologists who use historical data to try to predict that exact thing. You're being obtuse.
Guygan t1_j9ly4pu wrote
Historical data isn’t used for weather forecasts. Current data and computer models are.
[deleted] t1_j9lyerx wrote
It's used to predict power outages homie.
"When storm patterns look like this with a combination of wind, temperature and recent climate, we can expect 30k-50k outages" or whatever. Happens all the time.
NetLibrarian t1_j9lyxfp wrote
Yeah? Give us a link to one then.
[deleted] t1_j9mu5bm wrote
Ok - here ya go
It's almost like even though it's hard to predict with 100% accuracy, we're still able to use what we know about past events to give us a more accurate idea of what might happen
"Obviously, 65 mph or even 70 mph is a big number, but it's important to keep in mind these are GUSTS not sustained winds. So, no, this is not "hurricane-force" wind. Category 1 Hurricanes have SUSTAINED winds of 74 mph. Big difference. (Sorry, pet peeve). In addition, we don't have any leaves on the trees and there is snowpack on the ground in a lot of places, which helps us when it comes to power outages.
That being said, I expect a lot of outages from this event. It's just too much wind and it's out of the southeast, which hasn't historically been a kind wind direction for Maine."
NetLibrarian t1_j9mv67x wrote
So after busting everyone's balls for being unspecific, you're hauling out "A lot of outages" as a sufficient answer?
I think you know just where you can cram it, buddy.
Guygan t1_j9lzanl wrote
Well then ask the people who make those predictions.
OP asked for first hand experience. I gave mine.
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