market_theory t1_j0eywqw wrote
Reply to comment by LanewayRat in in 2023 India will become the most populous country in the world, surpassing China, which holds the #1 since 1750s. source: The Economist by Junoby
The Indian economy has been set to boom for the last 50 years.
sunchaud t1_j0f7bk8 wrote
And by most metrics, it has been booming for the past 20 years: > GDP: 8x, to 3.2 trillion dollars in 2021
> HDI: up 0.18, to .633
> GDP per Capita: up 5.5 times to 2.3k
> Poverty Rate: down 40 p.p, from 55% to 16%. that's 400MM people out of poverty (!!)
Obviously it does not hold a candle to western Europe levels of development, but it has taken big strides and to argue otherwise is ignorant.
That not withstanding, as anyone with basic understanding of socioeconomic development would know, progress is exponencial and it's faster when the populations stops expanding massively. As India approach replacement levels in fertility, the focus stops being expansion of services and starts being on quality, thus India readies itself for the "true boom".
You can hate India all you want, but it has been doing its homework over the century, despite all the geopolitical noise.
At last, India has been independent for 75 years and talks of "the boom of the economy" have been common place only after 1990. So no, not 50 years
Jerund t1_j0h9rt8 wrote
Similar to china but you hear only hear from china is the one pulling off this miracle phenomenon
market_theory t1_j0ihzhn wrote
It has experienced good real per capita growth -- which is to be expected given its low starting point -- but the predictions that it will soon outstrip China have yet to be realized.
> You can hate India all you want
Why do you think I hate India? I don't much like its current leader or his moronic hindutva supporters but I'd much rather see it do well than China.
> "the boom of the economy" have been common place only after 1990
I will concede I overstated the period.
sunchaud t1_j0k0vwj wrote
> Predictions will outrstrip China
There has been no such predictions in the last 15 years. The most bullish predictions have India catching up to Japan in the next 10-15 years ( in terms of gross GDP). In most social aspects, India is close to where China was in 2007-2008, so we are 15 years behind.
It is true that China has shown signs of economic weakness due to their 0 COVID policy, but most economic agents still have them growing at 4-5% per year and surpassing them in the short-mid term is a pipe dream
The hope is to close the gap and to compete with them more fiercely.
> Low base
Preposterous statement. India and all non European/NAFTA/Australia and NZ started from the almost same low base. It is the 4th country that most grew in this time period
Take LATAM as an example, no country was able to maintain India's rate of growth this consistently except for China. To deny the active role of the governments and the people is not based on reality
Besides, if a 900% growth in GDP is not a boom for you, I don't know what would be
> I don't hate India
I might have let the tone of other comments in this thread make me biased. If so, my apologies
LanewayRat t1_j0feeks wrote
Do you realize how relatively well off the Indian people in the picture are compared with a similar crowd 20 years ago? Look at them.
StationOost t1_j0g07j4 wrote
You will find well-off people in any society on Earth. It says nothing about the whole country.
market_theory t1_j0ih2v5 wrote
Obviously it has experienced real per capita growth but the predictions that it will soon outstrip China have yet to be realized.
LanewayRat t1_j0iknqf wrote
Yes… “predictions” that anything will happen “soon” are all yet to be realized 🤷🏼♂️
mynameismy111 t1_j0kltce wrote
Comparing 1950s India to 2000s alone, things have gotten better
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