Submitted by TheCloudBoy t3_117hwng in newhampshire
Are you ready for the next winter storm this Thursday? If you answered no, buckle up because our longer range guidance suggests much of March is cold & stormy.
In typical fashion with other storms in NH this winter, there is high uncertainty around what occurs a mere 72 hours from snow falling. Avoid the latest garbage Euro vs. GFS comparisons likely found elsewhere, here's what to take away as of Monday afternoon:
- A high impact winter storm is imminent Thursday & Thursday night for portions of NH.
- High uncertainty lingers as to where the stationary front initially lingers and how far north above-freezing air surges into New England. The northern (poleward) extent of these features will determine the location of the heavy snow (1.5"-2.5"/hr rates) and how much snow adds up from Concord/Claremont/Dover points south.
- Significant & spatially similar snow accumulations (8-12"+) are expected in/north of the heavy snow axis, where high snow ratios north will balance out lower ratio snow further south. Significant freezing rain accumulations are unlikely.
- I've drawn the most likely (as of this time) dominant precipitation type, which leverages a superensemble framework of available model forecasts while addressing systemic biases at this forecast time horizon.
poopdick72 t1_j9btpgr wrote
There’s going to be so much snow the next week. Climate change!!