"Meteorologist" no ECMWF, ICON, or GFS?

Just kidding, NAM rules.

Ha! Given this is going to be driven largely by elevation I've excluded the lower resolution guidance at this point, not to mention all 3 models got torched on how far north the warm front would come.

When weather readers fight.

> When weather readers fight.

< Let them fight > meme :D

"Introduce a little anarchy. Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos"

Sooo should I not bother picking the kids up early from daycare? Seacoast region.

Please don't hedge your bets on some online random claiming to be a meteorologist. That said, factual reports online say the snow in the seacoast region will be minimal to none.

I'll follow the NWS guidelines instead of some random redditor posting cherry-picked model runs, thanks. https://www.weather.gov/gyx/weatherstory

If you turn out to be right, don't say I told you so. The models are probabilistic. Sometimes the contrarians are correct due to randomness.

It's probably going to be a mostly-north-of-Concord event, although all that icing before it turns to rain is going to make a mess everywhere. Also, do note that thousands of people in NH are still without power from the last storm, and this wet hot mess is really the last thing we need right now. These icy shitstorms are the fucking worst.

You've very likely seen me and my forecasts before, I promise you of that. Would you like to see my atmospheric science degree?

Annnnd it’s already snowing here, lol.

None of the outlets I check seen to be hyping up this storm. NWS, WMUR, WBZ etc. They did a pretty decent job with the last two storms and if anything, under-forecasted. I don’t think they were very laughable events for the thousands of people that lost power.

No, I'd like to know, if that's the case, why wouldn't you say that on TV?

Who says I'm a TV meteorologist?

Right on schedule, as expected it's very light with the main action not slated until sunset!

How do you feel about Al Kaprillian?

Is it hard to predict the weather in New Hampshire? If so, what makes it so difficult compared to other areas of the country?

Haha Al! He's an interesting TV met to say the least, he ironically went to the same college I did!

That's honestly a great question! Given I grew up in New England and went to school in the mountains, my initial answer is no. That said, the caveat is there are a lot of microclimates to keep track of that variable terrain introduces, which I'd argue is the hardest part. The December 2020 snow blitz is an excellent example of this

Or for the people (like me) who've been working almost non stop since Sunday.. to say more snow is laughable is honestly kind of inconsiderate.

I'll be curious as to how much will be my area (30 min to VT/MA). This last storm dumped more than the 6-8 they had claimed. It was between 11-12" from what I was able to measure.

I always figured that if you were a good meteorologist, or enjoyed a challenge, you would want to work in New England. If you sucked, or were lazy, move somewhere like California.

Another night I slide all the way home

Right - I live in the southern lakes region and got 16 inches and a tree limb on my house from this last one.

Welp, just stuck my head outside, Peterborough area. Continuous breaking glass kind of sound coming from the trees. Mix of light rain and sleet falling. Make of it what you will.

I'm so sorry! We had a tree fall on our home during the Christmas storm. Not a fun experience

Yes, another "laughable" event where thousands in my area don't have power again. Cool.

Yeah, given I lived in an area that was pummeled by both Hurricane Irene & a wet snow storm (each crippled power for 10 days at a time), I'd say this event is rather tame, or laughable. Total outages & outage jobs remain lower than at either of the last two storms, great news.

There are a couple of open fallacies in this that I need to address.

"Models are probabilistic": Incorrect. The majority of our guidance (including what you see above) is deterministic, governed complex differential equations. I'm building a statistical weather model at my job, so I'd hope I know the difference.

Skillful meteorologists understand the limitations of each guidance system, their biases, and make forecasts from there. One on display overnight was understanding how models fail to capture warm air advection and smaller features like robust dry air correctly. That's why you saw such a low forecast contrary to most others. Not only was it right, it wasn't aggressive enough but ultimately applied these principles.

Why did I not worry about a lot of wet snow? Simple: the snow growth sucked & the magnitude of warm air advection would easily overpower cold air, so the result would be a rapid transition to ice & rain. That minimizes power outages, which is what we saw.

We got the 2-4" forecast by the NWS in my neck of the woods before the changeover to rain. I'm certain of it because I was out driving in it.

I don't pay much attention to the actors on TV trying to hype up ratings.

Well, I lost power (again) at midnight in the monadnock region. I guess I should’ve bought the hype

I'd love to know which town, because some of the reports coming in from the White Mountains are even more lackluster than expected

If it's still out, you're part of 0.42% of Eversource's total customer portfolio without power. It's a very good thing you didn't buy the hype.

Thursday update: Thousands in New Hampshire without power after third winter storm in past week clears through

3,837 out of 752,252 customers (a whopping 0.0051% of the total customer portfolio of all of NH) and less total than the lowest point at the end of the previous two storms. If we're going to consider this chaotic and panic over it, then there are states to the south where folks should consider moving to. This was a non-issue of an event, plain and simple.

Edit: The headline above & the article is lazily written in a way to entice a level of panic (in this case) that's totally unnecessary. "Thousands without power" sounds like a major event until you count the total number of outage jobs left, tally all the mutual aid crews into the state, and consider how many of the remaining customers out have been out the entire time.

I don't blame folks for feeling this way: with trust in TV journalism down below 10%, news directors at local TV stations frantically pivoted to this sensationalist approach in weather to keep ratings up & ad revenue flowing. That's why you see team coverage with multiple meteorologists & reporters for the weakest systems.

Spring, spring, spring. I see you!

"My father was a weatherman... and he skied. One day he goes off pist a little farther than usual. My mother grabs a ski pole to defend herself. He didn't like that. Not one bit. So, me watching, he takes the ski to her, laughing while he does it..."

"He then turns to me and asks, why so cirrus? Puts the ski in my mouth. Let's put some powder on that face. And so, why so cirrus?"