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t1_jb5ek3g wrote

According to history, this will only accelerate (towards extinction, I think).

To answer your question, the only thing that would slow down AI research is a large scale, civilization-affecting issue. Massive meteor strike. Deadly plague. Nuclear war. CME (coronal mass ejection) that takes us back to the 1800s.

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t1_jb9gd6p wrote

it may be too late for regulation, which was the best hope of slowing non secret AI, but this may have given the secret stuff an advantage, and let's face it better our overlords are robotic vacuum clraners than terminators...

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t1_jbb7h2z wrote

It being open seems unequivocally better in my eyes, even outside of being optimistic towards technological progress.

It's better for lots of actors to actually know what the cutting-edge actually is. More eyes means more solutions and scrutiny. We want all the best minds possible looking at this stuff.

Outside of actively outlawing ALL development on machine learning and neural networks (basically tracking down anything that looks remotely like neural network development and sending them to prison), and going to war with nations who don't comply, this isn't the kind of tech you can stop, only slow down and push into the shadows or other people's hands. And if you're concerned about uncontrollable AI agents that's not a remotely better situation to be in, even if you've slowed the tech's progress by however many years.

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t1_jd71hso wrote

yes I think you're right. I think the time that regulation could be effective has now passed. Perhaps AI is the great filter. if we get through it intact a bright future beckons.

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t1_jb7ov2m wrote

you forgot the most likely and most present. Climate change destroying our supply chain capacity

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t1_jb7qj1y wrote

Lmao no it’s not

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t1_jb7t3md wrote

Then you're blind. There have been more historic storms,floods,fires, and record breaking (in both direction) disasters and other natural disasters in the last 2 years than the last 20.

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t1_jb863w9 wrote

The problem isn't us going full scorched earth apocalypse
geostorm-style dude, its the most delicate natural ecosystems collapsing, leading to the extinction of endangered animals, for example: due to slight temperature increase, a little more topsoil in African wilds are loosened, leading to duststorms that force rare species of lions into possible extinction. (nothing to do with supply chains or the economy) It doesn't mean that climate change is good though. We should ALL try to vote for carbon neutral policies and be even a little bit more eco-friendly.

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t1_jbc85jv wrote

You know what, thats a really good point and I did not see a lot of that before now, thanks bro, hoping I can be a little more correct with what I say in the future. But to be fair, I really care about the environment and those animals.

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t1_jbcewa2 wrote

Appreciate your reply. I apologize for my jaded view on your stance of protected animals. If I could I'd rephrase it to "animals that most don't care about".

We live in the environment.

I'm mobile right now, so can't provide sources (but literally Google any soundbite I'm about to spew and a main stream source will cite it).

Supply chain collapse will likely occur before "Venus" by Thursday.

Our entire economic model of logistics is set up in two underlying principals over the last 50ish years.

"Just In time delivery" and consolidating regional factories into mega global factories.

Essentially we've exchanged resiliency for efficiency. This is bad because as climate change disasters ramp up they cause massive disruptions.

Example. During the Texas freeze a couple years ago the world's largest PVC supplier (somewhere around 57%) shut down for about a month and it causes a whiplash effect that impacted the globe for about six months afterwords. (1)

Last year there was a freak hurricane near Oman that had it hit about a hundred miles north would have impacted 20% of oil production in the world.

This summer major rivers in China, Europe, and U.S to name a few. The Mississippi was so low this summer that we had a massive backlog of barges that couldn't transport up and down the river and we had to expend a lot of resources dredging the river. (2)

Natural disasters are costing more and more. Something like the last 5 years of hurricanes alone have cost as much as the previous 20 years before that.

In addition our energy return on investment for oil (what our entire global economy is built on, and renewables will take decades to even possibly replace) is diminishing .

Canada had major roads wiped out, Pakistan flooded, the heat dome over Canada that killed over a billion sea creatures.

It really is a math equation. There will be a point where the cost of repairing and rebuilding will not exceed the damage natural disasters will cause.

We won't be able to focus on building new and better technology as we're simply trying to survive the next disaster right around the corner. Our technology systems require massive global efforts and factory specialization.

(1) https://www.businessinsider.com/plastics-shortage-texas-freeze-storm-uri-fight-for-materials-2021-3#:~:text=The%20freeze%20in%20Texas%2C%20which%20is%20one%20of,shut%2C%20the%20Journal%20said%2C%20citing%20S%26P%20Global%20Platts

2 https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-barge-backlog-swells-parched-mississippi-river-2022-10-04/

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t1_jbcnza0 wrote

Jesus Christ, seeming very unlikely that we will avoid a collapse! I've heard that a really effective way would be for governments to suddenly embrace scientific progress, basing laws off of social studies and technologies.

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