MrGoodGlow t1_jb7ov2m wrote on March 7, 2023 at 1:29 AM

Reply to comment by DungeonsAndDradis in What might slow this down? by Beautiful-Cancel6235

you forgot the most likely and most present. Climate change destroying our supply chain capacity

imnotabotareyou t1_jb7qj1y wrote on March 7, 2023 at 1:42 AM

Lmao no it’s not

MrGoodGlow t1_jb7t3md wrote on March 7, 2023 at 2:02 AM

Then you're blind. There have been more historic storms,floods,fires, and record breaking (in both direction) disasters and other natural disasters in the last 2 years than the last 20.

Manticor3Theoriginal t1_jb863w9 wrote on March 7, 2023 at 3:44 AM

The problem isn't us going full scorched earth apocalypse
geostorm-style dude, its the most delicate natural ecosystems collapsing, leading to the extinction of endangered animals, for example: due to slight temperature increase, a little more topsoil in African wilds are loosened, leading to duststorms that force rare species of lions into possible extinction. (nothing to do with supply chains or the economy) It doesn't mean that climate change is good though. We should ALL try to vote for carbon neutral policies and be even a little bit more eco-friendly.

MrGoodGlow t1_jbb6l6k wrote on March 7, 2023 at 8:01 PM

We're already seeing impacts to humans. It's not going to just be some species you don't care about.

https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2018/07/31/Cocoa-crop-losses-are-38-and-rising-so-what-can-be-done

Cocoa losses at 38%

Coffee output down 20%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/world-s-top-coffee-crop-shrinks-in-a-world-thirsty-for-supply

Wheat is also suffering

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://time.com/6175997/wheat-food-weather-climate/%23:~:text%3DWheat%2520Crops%2520Almost%2520Everywhere%2520Are%2520Coming%2520Under%2520Threat%2520From%2520Extreme%2520Weather,-A%2520farmer%2520harvests%26text%3DAs%2520Russia%27s%2520invasion%2520chokes,an%2520added%2520test%253A%2520extreme%2520weather.&ved=2ahUKEwj8zcy3tIn9AhWyFFkFHQPeDxwQFnoECA0QBQ&usg=AOvVaw030GJN1UYNr6RvfXZI7tY3

Sugarcane down 18%

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-sugar-crops-idUSKBN2FB1QG

Mustard production down 20ish% percent

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61529874

Natural disasters forced an estimated 3.4 million people in the U.S. to leave their homes in 2022, according to Census Bureau data collected earlier this year

Manticor3Theoriginal t1_jbc85jv wrote on March 8, 2023 at 12:10 AM

You know what, thats a really good point and I did not see a lot of that before now, thanks bro, hoping I can be a little more correct with what I say in the future. But to be fair, I really care about the environment and those animals.

MrGoodGlow t1_jbcewa2 wrote on March 8, 2023 at 1:01 AM

Appreciate your reply. I apologize for my jaded view on your stance of protected animals. If I could I'd rephrase it to "animals that most don't care about".

We live in the environment.

I'm mobile right now, so can't provide sources (but literally Google any soundbite I'm about to spew and a main stream source will cite it).

Supply chain collapse will likely occur before "Venus" by Thursday.

Our entire economic model of logistics is set up in two underlying principals over the last 50ish years.

"Just In time delivery" and consolidating regional factories into mega global factories.

Essentially we've exchanged resiliency for efficiency. This is bad because as climate change disasters ramp up they cause massive disruptions.

Example. During the Texas freeze a couple years ago the world's largest PVC supplier (somewhere around 57%) shut down for about a month and it causes a whiplash effect that impacted the globe for about six months afterwords. (1)

Last year there was a freak hurricane near Oman that had it hit about a hundred miles north would have impacted 20% of oil production in the world.

This summer major rivers in China, Europe, and U.S to name a few. The Mississippi was so low this summer that we had a massive backlog of barges that couldn't transport up and down the river and we had to expend a lot of resources dredging the river. (2)

Natural disasters are costing more and more. Something like the last 5 years of hurricanes alone have cost as much as the previous 20 years before that.

In addition our energy return on investment for oil (what our entire global economy is built on, and renewables will take decades to even possibly replace) is diminishing .

Canada had major roads wiped out, Pakistan flooded, the heat dome over Canada that killed over a billion sea creatures.

It really is a math equation. There will be a point where the cost of repairing and rebuilding will not exceed the damage natural disasters will cause.

We won't be able to focus on building new and better technology as we're simply trying to survive the next disaster right around the corner. Our technology systems require massive global efforts and factory specialization.

(1) https://www.businessinsider.com/plastics-shortage-texas-freeze-storm-uri-fight-for-materials-2021-3#:~:text=The%20freeze%20in%20Texas%2C%20which%20is%20one%20of,shut%2C%20the%20Journal%20said%2C%20citing%20S%26P%20Global%20Platts

2 https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-barge-backlog-swells-parched-mississippi-river-2022-10-04/

Manticor3Theoriginal t1_jbcnza0 wrote on March 8, 2023 at 2:11 AM

Jesus Christ, seeming very unlikely that we will avoid a collapse! I've heard that a really effective way would be for governments to suddenly embrace scientific progress, basing laws off of social studies and technologies.