Shoot, Q4 2023 will look completely different than Q1 2023. We could have AGI by Christmas.

/r/cummingonfigurines

Can AI see what's so special about Cinnamon Toast Crunch?

According to history, this will only accelerate (towards extinction, I think).

To answer your question, the only thing that would slow down AI research is a large scale, civilization-affecting issue. Massive meteor strike. Deadly plague. Nuclear war. CME (coronal mass ejection) that takes us back to the 1800s.

Some massive venture capital firm uses their army of 3.5 million manual labor robots to build power plants and connect up those remote areas with power, water, and internet, all for the low, low price of 2% of the country's GDP forever. For an extra 1% of GDP they'll let you run the systems using their proprietary AI workforce. It'll be the "set it and forget it" of utilities infrastructure.

Those layoffs weren't from AI, though. They were from recession and inflation fears.

My CEO did say that this year and next "we'll have to do more with less", so I think if we don't start using AI tools now, we'll be left behind.

Most of this subreddit (I apologize for generalizing) thinks that artificial super intelligence will either be a genie or an oracle.

A genie will just do whatever we ask, without limitations.

"Build me a house on this remote mountain with full power, gas, and running water."

<Genie does nano-fabrication magic and poofs a house into existence.>

An oracle will answer all of our questions, without doing anything itself (imagine ChatGPT times 10,000,000,000,000).

"We need a way to travel independently between the stars."

<Oracle invents hyper-long-range teleportation, and explains in detail how to build it.>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMTVoYO00Pw&t=2s

"Born to Fly" by Sara Evans

How do you wait for heaven, and who has that much time?

How do you keep your feet on the ground when you were born to fly?

We only have two roads ahead: extinction or immortality. We're about to fall face-first off a cliff and we don't even know it.

I think Human labor will be cheaper than robot labor, and we'll have Humans building the robots, and the robots doing the highly-skilled work like surgery or space station maintenance. I'm pretty sure Elysium is our exact future.

Neat! Good luck, and hopefully someday AGI will credit you as one of its founders.

What if it's an extreme BDSM simulator game, and they're begging you to shoot them in the face, like that guy from Borderlands?

There were similar discussions when Sniper Elite 5 came out. All of the Nazi soldiers had back stories. You could view a little blurb about them by focusing on them for a few seconds.

Some were "Hanz was too rough with prisoners, so they put him on guard duty" and some were "Franz wants to get out of the war and go raise dogs".

Players were saying "I view everyone, and kill the bad guys." And some said "They're all Nazis, they're all bad guys." And some said "Some of them were conscripted in to the war."

But at the end of the day, they're Nazis, so they get a bullet in the brain.

Yeah, I do the $49.99 monthly subscription. It lets me access up to 15 subreddits, and I can give out 150 upvotes, and 25 downvotes. I'm also allowed to post up to 10 submissions a month, and comment 100 times. This comment is costing me something like 7 cents. They don't really break it down by "each submission costs x" or "each upvote costs x". It's all rolled into the monthly fee.

This is the second time this week that someone is intimating something big happening in March 2023. Is this Mayan 2012 all over again?

Nothing ever happens.

I pay good money to shitpost on Reddit, so when I'm not getting my money's worth, it's the other commentors' fault.

Right now it's a pretty safe guess that people will still be using smartphones every day in three years.

When the singularity hits we won't be able to predict what technology breakthroughs will happen tomorrow.

Imagine a psychopath that's millions of orders of magnitude smarter than the smartest Human.

I think, trying to understand their point of view (the translation company), that they are saying language is the basis for all Human advances.

And by learning all of our language, the AI instantly knows everything Humanity knows.

Imagine if you are a world class doctor, best surgeon in existence. And you also happen to be the world's most effective lawyer. Oh, and also the top philosopher alive. And an absolute genius at war.

That's what an AI becomes by mastering Human language.

Again, I just think that's what their point of view is.

I hate to break it to you, but it's already here. Bots have been used to write articles for years, and bots run rampant on sites like Facebook, Twitter, and Reddit.

And they're good. Most bots are indistinguishable from a standard user.

And they're only going to get better and cheaper.

It's very easy to control the narrative when you've got an army of bots posting articles, posting comments, etc.

Or electrician or carpenter.

Go to lesswrong for actual discussions. Stay here for the hopium and shitposting.

Of course not, my dude. :) 99% of everything posted on this sub has basis in reality. Just huff the hopium and save for retirement.

I believe the architectural changes have already been made, perhaps last year, and they are currently being tested. I believe we'll see the finished paper(s) announcing one or more breakthroughs this year.

Well...<pushes glasses up into firing position>

1. Kurzweil's main shtick is The Law of Accelerating Returns. Basically, technological advances are coming more and more quickly. For example, it took Humanity like 200,000 years to develop the steam engine, and then 200 more to go to the moon.

2. 2022 was a ballistic year for AI advances, from nearly every company that is researching it. PaLM, Lambda, Gato, DALLE-2, ChatGPT. These tools are revolutionary advances in AI.

3. Following the Law of Accelerating Returns, 2023 should be major leaps in AI, and then again in 2024, and by 2025 things should be bonkers.

My layman's guesstimate is that the next major architectural design is going to happen this year. Much like transformers accelerated AI research in 2017. One or two more major architecture pivots leads us to AGI.

It's only going to get weird from here!