Over-under that Google already has AGI? Try and rationalize the release of Bard.

Submitted by AdditionalPizza t3_127w0mk in singularity

Ok the title might be confusing, I was trying to cram a very large thought into a small amount of text.

For the purpose of this post the mention of AGI means most likely non-sentient or conscious, non-embodied, and still prompt based.

Bard. While I personally haven't used it, based on the majority of information I've seen it's quite underwhelming. We can sit here and flame on Google not shipping, and Bard being terrible all day, but has anyone asked why Google would release Bard?

If you believe it's the best they have: Is there a valid argument for them to release it then? I mean, wouldn't they want to keep having the public (and stock holders) believe they have the best behind closed doors? I honestly can't think of a good reason why they would show off Bard in its current state.

We'll come back to why later.

___

So I'm a proponent that Google most likely has a much, much more powerful model than whatever Bard is. I believe Google most likely has a model more powerful than GPT-4 (maybe plugins notwithstanding?). I believe Google might be taking a page out of Apple's playbook, and waiting for competition to show their cards and releasing at a later stage so they can "beat" the competition in some various aspects.

I believe Google may possibly be waiting to release their better model(s) mid-GPT cycle. If done correctly, it's a brilliant strategy because currently training and alignment takes time and there's no way around it. With a training schedule taking months; If 2 competitors had nearly the same R&D capabilities, and literally every week a new pre-training or training technique that could lead to a more powerful model is discovered... Why not wait a month or 2 to start training so you can blow the competition away shortly after their release?

Google could also have a continuous training method, every "breakthrough" in training that's discovered, they could just start training another model. Expensive, but they have like... Unlimited money basically. So they could always be ahead of the competition with that strategy, though I'm sure they aren't exactly "allowed" to burn piles of cash.

So finally, maybe Google doesn't see GPT as the competition? Google could release crappy old Bard today, and instantly have more users than OpenAI/Microsoft. The vast majority (not including China I guess) opens their Google made browser on their Google OS phone and start typing into Google's search box or Google's video platform... Etc.

So knowing that they could ship, today, to the majority of internet users on Earth and beat OpenAI why wouldn't they? Well maybe the competition is still Apple? I can't personally imagine Apple having a superior product to either Google or OpenAI when it comes to language models or assistants, but with Apple it doesn't come down to who has the better product. It's the size of the user base, the fanfare, the spectacle, the innovation. If Google releases their "Gemini" Assistant across all Google products and services, then Apple just copies and releases an inferior, albeit good enough product and Google gains nothing. Maybe this is Android's chance to actually capture Apple users?

___

So my theories of why they haven't release an outstanding product yet might hold some water I think, but really who cares... The question is still why release Bard? It's driving me a little mad to be honest.

What is Bard? We know what a bard is by definition, a story teller from a past age. I swear there's some inside joke here... Something about current language models being ancient history... I don't know, moving on.

Why release? Intentional misdirection or to hide their hand? But why? They could've just stayed quiet. Is someone/thing playing 4D chess on us? Google has never released inferior AI software, they pride the company on the cutting edge of it... Unless they feel they have nothing left to prove? There's something here I've yet to see anyone explain in a satisfying way. Instead everyone is just assuming GPT-4 is dunking on Bard and it's all a big meme.

___

So... what are the odds Google has AGI, Bard's release is some kind of move we can't foresee the reasoning for at the moment, and it's time to buckle in because your face could melt (in a good way) any moment?

6

Comments

You must log in or register to comment.

Pitchforks_n_puppies t1_jeg2qea wrote

I've talked to people at Google and all accounts are that they are scrambling. There's no subterfuge behind Bard.

10

SharpCartographer831 t1_jeg2w0h wrote

If we're only a few years away? Some suggesting 18 months away, then it stands to reason, Google and multiple other labs have crossed the finish line and waiting to inform the public. Possibly also due to government intervention, which could also explain a few things about Google, going dark.

3

1loosegoos t1_jegb8tc wrote

Replying to AdditionalPizza (#2,545,999)

I think this is case of you believe your own strawman argument. The release of Bard has been nothing short of disastrous to Googles reputation, not to mention the hit it took in the stock market. Occam's Razor suggests they are simply way behind openai's chatgpt.

1

AdditionalPizza OP t1_jegcex4 wrote

Replying to 1loosegoos (#2,548,491)

Either you don't know what a straw man is, or I'm really failing to see where I made the case for one because I'm not proposing any kind or argument with anyone specifically...

Example:

Person A: "Animal testing for cosmetics should be banned."

Person B: "You must be against medical research since many medical advancements come from animal testing."

___

But the point is we know Google has a better model than the version of LaMDA used, so why base Bard on it in the first place?

1

AdditionalPizza OP t1_jegd5x9 wrote

Replying to internet_czol (#2,548,879)

Hmm. I would have to assume they probably wouldn't really need that data at this point, considering the hoarding they have done already. But, it could be just a basic preliminary test to see how the public interacts with bots like this because people don't always post the darkest stuff they might ask to an AI.

I still question why they would risk so much with such an inferior model though.

3

internet_czol t1_jegiyh8 wrote

Replying to AdditionalPizza (#2,549,141)

Yeah true, more likely just the testing on a larger scale than they could do themselves without outsourcing to the public, but it does seem like with the results I've seen from Bard it wasn't worth it. Maybe it is possible they have a better model not released, and the next update to the public would appear even greater by comparison and they can say "look how quickly we can improve our model!"

2

bh9578 t1_jegj3u6 wrote

There’s no 4d chess here. Bard is the best they have. That’s why Larry Page and Sergei Brin had to fly in for a “code red” emergency meeting. I don’t find it too surprising that a scrappy start up was able to outwit a Google. This has been the continual story in business. Google is a typical large company with too many committees and red tape. They got complacent and fell asleep at the wheel. Same thing that happened to IBM, GE, Blockbuster, Barnes and Noble, etc. Microsoft and Apple are incredibly rare examples of businesses that have managed to stay relevant and reinvent themselves.

1

AdditionalPizza OP t1_jegl6jr wrote

Replying to bh9578 (#2,551,302)

Well we know the version of LaMDA that Bard uses is not based on the best model they have, for a fact, we know this. Which is why I'm asking the question, what's the point in Bard being released how it is? Pichai recently even reiterated that Bard is weak and not even close to their better models.

It just doesn't make sense. Google is definitely not further behind in general, every preview they have given has been exception except Bard. There's no way Google shows off PaLM-E then winds up like Blockbuster.

Besides Google is so fucking massive, I don't think companies that large can plummet.

0

bh9578 t1_jegoqpy wrote

Replying to AdditionalPizza (#2,552,108)

Probably the founders swooped in and told them they wanted to release whatever they had because they panicked. The engineers probably said it wasn’t ready, but upper management over ruled them. Of course they’re going to say they have something better but I’m doubtful. They looked really unconfident in their presentation of bard. It’s like they all knew they had a loser but we’re forced to throw a presentation together with a 72 hour notice.

I haven’t been too impressed with Google as a company in recent years. They seem really unfocused and like they’re always chasing after the latest tech fad.

1