Submitted by TheForgottenHost t3_yho311 in singularity
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Professional-Song216 t1_iuey1o1 wrote
Yea if the counter arguments are actually good
Wise-Yogurtcloset646 t1_iuezcu5 wrote
I'd like to hear why you find the counter arguments bad. I find them reasonable. They don't dismiss the singularity as a concept or future event but they do warn for too optimistic timelines and the self comforting nature of some work of futurists. Its easy to deny things like for example our own mortality and inevitable death by blindly cling on to hope given by some futurists. I feel like if we have no good scientific data or basis for predictions or expectations, futurism is nothing but a form of religion for atheists.
dnimeerf t1_iuf1am3 wrote
The epistemological rupture has been ongoing. Futurism isn't going to go away, you can't put the cat back into the bag, all we can do is warn people against making poor decisions out of haste and dopamine based instant gratification desire. The best way forward is intergalactic society and movement towards a type 1 civilization after the resolution of the post scarcity event in favor of the people of civilization. There will be many that will factionize and tribalize and will not be unlike the Amish are now in a way. Everyone will have choices.
Sashinii t1_iuf2vsc wrote
"I feel like if we have no good scientific data or basis for predictions or expectations, futurism is nothing but a form of religion for atheists."
Evidence is different in science and technology: the former involves looking at current data and a focus on what already exists, whereas the latter involves extrapolation and a focus on creating what's possible according to the laws of physics.
There are graphs showing that accelerating progress and exponential growth have happened in the past and are happening now, so assuming that they'll stop happening in the future is going against the reality of the situation.
AI continues making tangible progress every day, but the same can't be said for religion, which never makes tangible progress, so this argument never makes sense.
arevealingrainbow t1_iuf6kbv wrote
Lot of “it’s time to retire ___ new thing” articles lately. We must be at the “and then they fight you” stage.
TheHamsterSandwich t1_iuf7a2w wrote
If the singularity doesn't occur by 2045, or if AGI isn't achieved by 2029 Ray will lose all credibility. I wonder what will happen to this subreddit if that happens.
TheSingulatarian t1_iuf91n7 wrote
Anyone who has been a follower of Ray's and is honest about him knows that he tends to be 10 to 20 years too early on his predictions. However, some remarkable things are happening of late with narrow AIs. So who knows what the future holds.
Regardless of whether the goal posts are moved backward or forward, this sub will continue.
KidKilobyte t1_iufatwn wrote
I think we are at the point where very soon AI helps create more powerful AI even if not fully self directed with one simple command. Much like more power CPUs made it easier to design the next generation of more powerful CPUs. So we are still at a point the humans still have to do a loft of lifting to get to next level, but the lift is getting easier and easier with each generation of AI. Things like AI discovering more effiecent math and neural network configurations.
TheHamsterSandwich t1_iufbzjf wrote
Nah I'd bet the sub would be fucked. The majority of people here expect AGI before 2029. Kind of insane to me. So we'll see what happens.
TopicRepulsive7936 t1_iufcuq5 wrote
Even if the 2029 long bets Turing test fails, or even if all information technology progress stops today, Kurzweil was more correct about the future than the average dummy like the person who wrote that article.
[deleted] t1_iufdu9v wrote
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TopicRepulsive7936 t1_iufe0by wrote
If they even happen to exist...
dnimeerf t1_iufes8l wrote
Not travelling at increments of 10,000X the speed of light it doesn't.
elfballs t1_iuffjet wrote
I haven't been here long, but I think this sub is about the idea, not kursweil. It's no even completely original. It's okay not to have the timeline perfect.
[deleted] t1_iufgi6x wrote
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TopicRepulsive7936 t1_iufhwnv wrote
If the society spreads out and travels to different galaxies at close to speed of light it won't take much time at all.
Powerful_Range_4270 t1_iufiwgb wrote
Just not impossible.
BaronCapdeville t1_iufjoit wrote
All sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
So, yes.
Edit: also, relevant user name.
starfyredragon t1_iufjs8q wrote
Magic not neccesarry.
Alcubierre drive concept has been refined to the point to where it's achievable with non-exotic forms of matter at semi-realistic energy requirements, and we've known thanks to the math behind super-strings that faster-than-light travel has always been technically possible, and may even happen naturally.
starfyredragon t1_iufjvh3 wrote
I think it's time to retire religion, especially the Abrahamic ones.
HyperImmune t1_iufjxgz wrote
Any sufficiently advanced technology will be considered magic. I’d guess people from 200 years ago would consider a lot of our technology “magic”. Not saying FTL travel is imminent by any means, but who knows what the future truly holds.
[deleted] t1_iufk08z wrote
TopicRepulsive7936 t1_iufl4im wrote
At 99.99% lightspeed it would take 21 days couple of centuries. Would have to go faster than that.
Jamie1897 t1_iufli57 wrote
I think a good parameter for the (accelerating?) rate of technological progress would be the number of new drugs making it to market produced or theorized using AI drug screening and prediction capabilities. This is something that has the potential to massively increase human quality of life and lifespan and it is already beginning.
zeezero t1_iuflnue wrote
That article says they are still limited to the speed of light.
dnimeerf t1_iufmrkq wrote
Read and reconsider that I am one of the inventors of this tech, and we are about 30- 50 years from public interstellar safe travel. If things go well https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salvatore_Pais Not magic
dnimeerf t1_iufn7zk wrote
Not at all It was difficult to achieve a near vacuum not many years ago. It was difficult for mankind to understand cavitation in a fluid volume, and still is. It is possible, however difficult, to draw even space from a given area. This seems incomprehensible, but with current understanding and technology, and the unification of civilization toward intergalactic society it is possible to do in just a few decades today what would have been said to be impossible just 10 short years ago. We live in an age of wonders friend https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salvatore_Pais
dnimeerf t1_iufnxwb wrote
I like the force that Tesla spoke of, "the cogwork of nature" so to speak, that which drives space, and all else with it along at a terrible pace. We may yet live to "see manmade horrors beyond our comprehension." Ftl happens naturally, which is part of the principle of operation of the system, which requires an advanced navigation and sensor system to make incremental changes in real time so not to turn the inhabitants into jelly. That system is already being worked on and is the subject of my white paper, and maxwell demon in the making. The software will mature into a navigational array meant for interstellar travel and communication. Our civilization is not yet responsible enough for transdimensional transteleportation.
dnimeerf t1_iufo4nl wrote
It doesn't include Mr Pais work https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salvatore_Pais
[deleted] t1_iufpywk wrote
iNstein t1_iufqcur wrote
Exactly this. If we say looking at past data and trends and then projecting forward is not scientific, then basically climate science has to be added to that. In fact a huge chunk of science would be null and void and science would be labelled as a religion. Nothing about the singularity is non scientific, it is all based on observation and identifying trends and patterns in that data. If it weren't such an incredulous impact on our lives, no one would question it since the science is actually pretty clear and only the exact timing is really unclear.
Zorander22 t1_iufrbkx wrote
The shorter timeframe is due to time dilation. For the people back on Earth, 25,000 years would pass, but not for people on the voyage.
GenoHuman t1_iufrblq wrote
but for who or what?
bitchslayer78 t1_iug0fay wrote
Wonder how the tribes of Abraham will react to the
Tech that will sweep the world in the coming decades , will be interesting to see them how they warp that into their delusions
AsuhoChinami t1_iugbjvo wrote
No, but it is time to retire stupid articles from stupid people like the one you just posted
starfyredragon t1_iugbx34 wrote
Fair, I missed that part, I was more focused on it being an Alcubierre derivative that can actually work. Thanks for catching me on that.
Also, my disappointment is immeasurable.
starfyredragon t1_iugch2c wrote
I already see them frequently break down when I talk about cryogenic freezing. (I'm signed up for it). I'm like, "If my death isn't guaranteed to be permanent, what point does your religion have for me?" I've yet to get a good concrete answer. Pascal's wager means nothing if you don't have to play.
Countingblackcrows t1_iugfycx wrote
If you think this sub will shrink as technology continues its exponential rise I have a bridge to sell you
Wise-Yogurtcloset646 t1_iuewkay wrote
Valid point's, good to see some scepticism between all the hopeium. It puts some of the people here back on earth. It's best to stay objective and open to counter arguments.