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Ezekiel_W t1_isyyodx wrote

There is no doubt that robots and artificial intelligence will replace ALL work in the near future. The fact that the public at large doesn't realize what is happening does not change the outcome. We really need both politicians and the media to take UBI seriously.

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bluegman10 t1_isza2s4 wrote

>There is no doubt

You (and others) have no doubt, but that belief isn't universal at all, so I wouldn't say doubt is nonexistent.

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IcebergSlimFast t1_iszo70q wrote

How about: “There is no reasonable / defensible doubt.”

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bluegman10 t1_it0byve wrote

Again, that's an opinion, and opinions aren't universally held.

I don't think not believing in 100% automation in the the near future is unreasonable.

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IcebergSlimFast t1_it12iml wrote

Re-reading the post you originally responded to, I apparently missed or skimmed over “replace ALL work” when I first read it. I agree that it’s not at all unreasonable to doubt 100% automation in the near future.

What I think is certain (or very nearly so) is that starting in the fairly- near future — likely within a 10 year time-frame — AI-enabled automation will cause substantial disruption to global labor markets and workers. I think it’s also reasonable to predict that nearly all jobs will be capable of being automated within a similar time-frame. However, I agree that full automation will take longer.

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AsthmaBeyondBorders t1_iszdenm wrote

There are problems with UBI too, UBI can't be the ultimate tool to solve the problem. If we implement UBI today without taking care of other issues too what do you think is going to happen? UBI will be effectively curbing social mobility to the minimum. It is taking money from the government to subsidize minimum living conditions, at the moment there is little to no support for UBI in amounts that would allow people to save money for big investments, it is UBI for survival and basic dignity that most economists and politicians in favour of it speak of as of currently. In essence it is funneling tax money to capitalists who own the businesses you depend on to survive, with the added advantage that at least you get to choose how to spend the money instead of the government pre-selecting what everyone gets. But most of the UBI distributed will ultimately end up at the hands of capitalists as you spend and don't save, if we don't change some other things first.

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BearStorms t1_iszki5k wrote

What do you propose?

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AsthmaBeyondBorders t1_iszmbnb wrote

For starters since it is obvious UBI can get rid of the lower end of wealth distribution (which is the whole point if the fear is mass unemployment) but we don't want to have UBI be all funneled to the top percentiles it is obvious we have to set artificial limits on wealth accumulation. Now we get rid of the bottom end of wealth distribution (no job, no income) but we also get rid of the top end of wealth distribution (can't be filthy rich, past some point your marginal taxation quickly approaches 100%).

Second, it is important to distinguish between unconditional basic income and basic income that is only handed out if you are unemployed. If people can get UBI + income from work then social mobility is much easier to be achieved. Then there is the amount of UBI each person gets: if UBI is for survival only then you can't use this for investments because it is hard to save. If UBI allows you to save and eventually invest in your own business ventures then social mobility is easier again.

Third, if we are implementing UBI because of mass unemployment and then only those who get UBI + income from work can have decent social mobility, we would need to allow more people to work in a world where work is increasingly scarce. This means we need to reduce the amount of hours people work, so that more people can work, less working hours > more people working.

Further, if we transform medium to large private enterprises into cooperatives, then funneling UBI into companies is suddenly not a wealth concentration trap, because cooperatives distribute profits among workers instead of small quantities of shareholders that own majority of shares, and to the top of hierarchies via agency-theory solutions.

Finally, if better distribution in this system generates hyper Inflation in basic necessity goods and services, we degrow superficial industries to control Inflation in basic necessities via supply elasticity.

That's my view but what do you propose?

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BearStorms t1_iszo61c wrote

Agreed that reducing work hours should be the first solution. It is a travesty that the 40 hour work week didn't shrink in over 80 years.

I think some countries are going to implement 4 day work week, I think Iceland for example.

The US will need another FDR soon...

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iNstein t1_iszkti8 wrote

Your 'capitalists' will be richer if UBI is higher. The higher, the better for them. Expect the UBI rate to increase until it meets maximum production which will be orders more than it is today.

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