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kmtrp t1_it4u8uj wrote

This chart succinctly captures this very topic.

Maybe we need to share it more.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_it4vajo wrote

That's about it, and we're getting real close to that upshot at the end with LLM's.

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visarga t1_it6ng34 wrote

But in reality the opposite seems to happen, we tend to overestimate the impact of a new technology in the short run, but we underestimate it in the long run. We are very emotional about it if it's close and don't care if it's far away.

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kmtrp t1_it7e2nq wrote

There are many predictions, as there are people. What I've reliably understood is overestimating a century but underestimating a decade.

But this time, almost every prediction is bound to be insanely wrong either way.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_it83ab4 wrote

>But this time, almost every prediction is bound to be insanely wrong either way.

I agree. I don't think we can really reliably predict things past 2.5 years anymore, or 2025.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_it82vva wrote

What are some examples of tech that was grossly over estimated in the near term? Maybe self driving vehicles if you look at it from certain perspectives?

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