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visarga t1_it6ng34 wrote

Reply to comment by kmtrp in If you believe you can think exponentially, you might be wrong. Transformative AI is here, and it is going to radically change the world before the Singularity, and before AGI. by AdditionalPizza

But in reality the opposite seems to happen, we tend to overestimate the impact of a new technology in the short run, but we underestimate it in the long run. We are very emotional about it if it's close and don't care if it's far away.

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kmtrp t1_it7e2nq wrote

There are many predictions, as there are people. What I've reliably understood is overestimating a century but underestimating a decade.

But this time, almost every prediction is bound to be insanely wrong either way.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_it83ab4 wrote

>But this time, almost every prediction is bound to be insanely wrong either way.

I agree. I don't think we can really reliably predict things past 2.5 years anymore, or 2025.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_it82vva wrote

What are some examples of tech that was grossly over estimated in the near term? Maybe self driving vehicles if you look at it from certain perspectives?

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