I think the singularity would be the last black swan event - at least from the pov of the singularity (which is the only pov that matters from that point on)

Singularity has been anticipated and planned for, for decades by people in the know. Hell, even you and I are starting to understand it as inevitable.

So, singularity isn't a black swan to some people, just to most people. And those in the know will exploit this general "shock" to get ahead, like nobody have been ahead, ever before.

I'm talking Elysium-style hellscape for the most of us.

I mean, if our elite viewed singularity as a threat to them, would they be funding all the development, and touting transhumanistic technocracy in every media channel available?

What are you even talking about

Plenty of black swans in Perth, Western Australia. This would be more like a gold swan event, so rare it has never happened before. A once in all history event, not just a once in x number of decades. The magnitude of the impact of the singularity can not be exaggerated. Every aspect of every human will be changed drastically forever. I'd say that that is pretty big.

Need another voting option for idk 💁🏼‍♀️ because I don't...

Tbh I'm still trying to understand what singularity means to humanity, what will it look like, change etc. Recommended reading with factual information welcomed.

Absolutely is a black swan event. Although black swan is supposedly unpredictable, lots of other past events that were considered black swans were predictable by a group of people. This includes WW1, the personal computer, and the internet.

The creator of the term black swan, Nassim Taleb, regards pretty much all major scientific discoveries as black swan events.

Black Swan events are by definition unpredictable, so technically no. It's post-Singularity events which are considered unpredictable.

Try Singularity Hypotheses: A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment (PDF link). It’s a fantastic collection of essays about the Singularity, from many different points of view.

Thank you!

The only thing is, it’s not coming as a surprise

Grey swan.

What era comes after post-singularity ?

based on current trends, it's going to be a parallel manifestation like Newton/Leibnitz calculus, the invention of radio, the 80's PC revolution, etc.
one could argue that the largest entities with the largest scale of compute can ship privatized AGI the soonest, but then again, frameworks like the Alberta Plan (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvJ14d0r3CM ) are open-sourced, as are models like stablediffusion, and from what's been observed already, AGI may depend on the training data (which is less scalable than the compute). No, anyone doing the research can conclude that this is not a black swan.

The simulation restarts.

Depends on which paradigms, algorithms, and processes win out.

It’s likely not going to be noticed until it has already happened, with nothing we can do on about it.

The question is how and when ... ?

no

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The "Resource Acquisition" era, AIs just slurp up all the materials in the solar system and turn it all into computing and stuff.