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idranh t1_ix9kl3r wrote

Reply to comment by AI_Enjoyer87 in How much time until it happens? by CookiesDeathCookies

I honestly don't know anymore, things are going faster than expected, which is why I've stopped making predictions. But I am interested if your predictions have changed within the last year. What was the timeline you envisioned in the beginning of 2022?

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AI_Enjoyer87 t1_ix9uouk wrote

I thought singularity was like 30-40 years away. Was very into tech but wasn't as clued into AI progress.

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idranh t1_ixa01xa wrote

It took me a long time to believe that AGI was even possible. Once I came around a couple of years ago, 2045 sounded far enough away to be plausible. This past year has really shaken that, I'm in the AGI by 2030 camp now, and if advancements accelerate in 2023 who knows? What a time to be alive.

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AI_Enjoyer87 t1_ixa318t wrote

The thing is we don't even need AGI. We just need extremely competent AI. Who knows consciousness might not be possible through computation. Transformative AI that can replace jobs and dramatically increase technological progress is literally right around the corner. When this exists society will be transformed very quickly.

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