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AI_Enjoyer87 t1_ix97dvq wrote

Proto-AGI next year. AGI 2025 - 2027. FDVR between 2026 -2028 (I think AGI will enable non invasive compelling BCI). Those are my predictions. I think automation will have dramatic implications from late next year and will only start having societal implications from 2024 onwards. Probably way off but still that's what I think as of now. Will probably have a different view in a couple months.

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idranh t1_ix9kl3r wrote

I honestly don't know anymore, things are going faster than expected, which is why I've stopped making predictions. But I am interested if your predictions have changed within the last year. What was the timeline you envisioned in the beginning of 2022?

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AI_Enjoyer87 t1_ix9uouk wrote

I thought singularity was like 30-40 years away. Was very into tech but wasn't as clued into AI progress.

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idranh t1_ixa01xa wrote

It took me a long time to believe that AGI was even possible. Once I came around a couple of years ago, 2045 sounded far enough away to be plausible. This past year has really shaken that, I'm in the AGI by 2030 camp now, and if advancements accelerate in 2023 who knows? What a time to be alive.

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AI_Enjoyer87 t1_ixa318t wrote

The thing is we don't even need AGI. We just need extremely competent AI. Who knows consciousness might not be possible through computation. Transformative AI that can replace jobs and dramatically increase technological progress is literally right around the corner. When this exists society will be transformed very quickly.

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IndependenceRound453 t1_ixa8blq wrote

Those are some very, very optimistic predictions. I personally don't see that happening but only time will tell, I guess.

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thanoswasright57 t1_ixadxzp wrote

What does AGI, FDVR and BCI mean and how they all connect?

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was_der_Fall_ist t1_ixar9fd wrote

AGI = artificial general intelligence (computers that can solve problems and do other intelligent things as well as any human)

FDVR = full-dive virtual reality (immersive digital experiences in which you fully “dive in”, as real as the real world)

BCI = brain-computer interface (tech that enables direct communication between the human brain and computers)

AGI is speculated to help us in inventing BCIs (since the brain is too complex for us to figure out on our own in the short-medium term), and BCIs will enable FDVR by directly interfacing between the brain and virtual worlds.

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Emergency-Cry-5569 t1_ixa053t wrote

do you know which jobs should I pursue and be first?

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AI_Enjoyer87 t1_ixa2irx wrote

Jobs probably won't be a thing in the long-term. Do whatever makes you happy and helps others in the meantime. Once a company can automate your labour for less it will do it. Hopefully we can have UBI and people can have enough money to buy what they need. Companies still need people to buy products even if labour can be cheaply automated.

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PyreOfDeath97 t1_ixbkmgw wrote

I went into automation for this reason, and the jobs are going fast. The rise of Software as a Service platforms have enabled clients to streamline their employee base down to a few people who use the software to input some details and liaise with our company, but soon even they will be made redundant. I’m hoping my sector will be one of the last to go, since we’re the ones effectively creating the level of automation that can do someone’s job for them

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Seattle2017 t1_ixbc1s0 wrote

I don't see UBI happening in the US. Hard to say how far other democracies would go. The US has our own crazy delusional "social safety nets are a terrible thing" going on. I can't see the much more conservative US older generation ever voting for it (I almost wrote "allowing it"). The us is in a near fight with itself anyway, it will take a good amount of time before the younger generations take their place politically. After more and more jobs are lost to automation, how will people support themselves.? And how would the govt pay for more welfare? It doesn't matter if everything is suddenly much cheaper, it still costs something. My suspicion is this would be a time of extreme social turmoil, much more than now. It could be like the time of the Luddites resisting automation in textiles (https://www.history.com/news/industrial-revolution-luddites-workers).

This wholesale death of large numbers of jobs already looks to be happening just from electric cars replacing large numbers of mechanics, companies that design and manufacture internal combustion drive trains, alternators, emission inspection stations, mufflers, tune-ups, that will all be gone in a little over 10 years. It's certain that cars will go to electric, 5 million people will lose jobs in the us. Imagine how angry that will make blue collar america. And this won't even take any advancements over where we are today, no AI advancements are needed. Add on top of that the end of trucking as an occupation, the large industry that has truck stops and local jobs across the US, repairs and maintains diesel trucks (self driving trucks can take over between big cities). Yes, it will be great to avoid the need for that grinding long-haul hard job, but there aren't new jobs for those people.

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AI_Enjoyer87 t1_ixcbstt wrote

It will definitely happen in the US even if it takes longer than Europe for example. Older generations aren't dumb. They don't want their children and their grandchildren out of money. If there are really no jobs they will vote for UBI like everyone else. Politicians who embrace these changes will be enormously popular (most of them already believe in the same ideology guiding the WEF and their preparation for the technological advancements that are inevitable). Those who don't currently support these developments will change their views according to what will get them elected or they will become politically irrelevant as these changes will effect everyone from left to right.

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Freds_Premium t1_ixak5ao wrote

There won't be an economy. Everything you need will be free essentially?

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