From this I assume that, at least, the Turing Test will be passed by 2029 (one of the main predictions of Ray Kurzweil).

Historically engineer's and scientists are very bad at predicting future. I am 100 percent sure we have agi by 2027 to 2029(a thinking machine) not narrow ai that replaces app gui.

turing test is not a sufficient test and people can't be the judge, people are easily fooled. but i doubt it'll take that long from where we are.

Historically, are your predictions good?

I bet it's a usless article. In the past 20 years, have him predict the AIGC will flight out in 2022?

What? Do you mean that we have to put a machine to test if another machine is smarter than a human?

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turing never thought of this test as a human talking to a machine to see if it's smart.

he had the intelligence problem in mind and thought of state machines that are turing complete could become generally intelligent just like humans.

and if we're talking about that kind of general intelligence, i don't think we will get that by 2029, but what do i know.

Bought amd stock after ryzen announcement thinking it'll 5x in 5 years but it increased 10x . Now after seeing chat gpt and reading research works in machine learning I am sure human level agi achievable In 2027 to 2029.

I would suggest “passing Turing test” could be better understood as passing Turing test 50% of the time (or 70 or 90%) by 50% of people.

In that case, we could argue chatGPT is close to the mark already.

>I and my engineers are abandoning so-called ”black box” algorithms such as neural networks in favor of the new generations of predictive models that can be much more easily interpreted by trained human ML engineers

NNs have been rocking it for the past few years, so this is what surprised me the most. The rest is fairly humdrum

I remember when AMD stock as like $1 thinking they were done when they had their bulldozer processors sucking wind to intel. Then Ryzen came out and the stock went on a roar

Ray Kurzweil recently said he thinks it will probably happen a little before 2029 at the rate of process he's seeing, although, there are still some issues to be addressed like AI doesn't understand chains of reasoning and math very well yet but he says there are ideas of how to solve that.

as much as i admire ray, i don't think he has a say in when we will get it. there are a few million dollar problems to solve before we solve the intelligence problem. but that's just my view, nobody has to agree or disagree, i just urge everyone to look into it.

Didn't we already pass that? At least in the text generation front

That's my thought as well. Though it could mean that the AI could pass the Turing test "continuously". Changing topics and returning to previous topics without any oddities occurring.

Because yeah, a properly pre-prompted ChatGPT without hard topic limits (so no "I'm afraid I can't do that" moments) put against an unaware subject could definitely fool a lot of people for at least a short conversation.

I feel like a true capital P "Pass" of the Turing test would be something like a model that can be provided with a persona, background data and history (or come up with one on the fly), and carry on a conversation consistent with that persona of arbitrary length with a subject believing them to be human.

And then, be able to have that same subject come back on a following day, and be able to continue conversing with the model in a manner consistent with time having passed in the life of the simulated persona.

Even if there were still some limitations that would be the point where I'd pretty much consider conversational AI a "solved" problem, since it would just be a matter of degrees. Where you can have something like an AI assistant provide a consistent experience of "Personhood" (even if that person is an AI).

By the time that problem is solved though we will almost certainly be capable of making multimodal Psuedo-AGIs work at the very least. So it's hard to say how many years it will talk to solve the problems with current models preventing this capability.

I agree with you.

I believe the Turing test is or quickly will be achieved.

The question is what comes between that and true AGI and between AGI and singularity.

I believe some version of self improving AI will have to come first before anything else.

We are close IMO, once it can produce Python/Cuda/VDHL code better than the 10-20% best percentile, magic will happen…