voted 10 years or more. Anyone saying otherwise does not understand humans, and does not understand current AI.

Just recently we got the very first announcements of an AI being able to generate a simple video. The video was incredibly poor quality, suffered the usual temporal consistency issues, was very short, lacked audio, etc.

It'll take a few years at least for ai generated videos to be deemed "human-watchable" rather than "first steps in research". So that's already looking like 2-5 years at least.

From there, we'll likely end up seeing the same issues that stable diffusion is facing today, with many people in the field opposing it's use.

Lastly, you put "most" in the criteria, meaning over 50% of content. This is extremely unlikely, even if such content does manage to appear within the next decade. If we do hit such a deadline, it'll only initially be a small portion of content at the beginning.

My estimate is that I expect some portion of content (say, less than 30%) to be ai generated within 50 years. Referring here to books, youtube videos, and comics/manga, along with music.

Though I'm fairly conservative in this regard, so I guess we'll see.

Considering how Hollywood makes terrible recent movies and tv series with tHe mEsSaGe. I hope that AI makes better movies, shows, and animations. Just to make Hollywood obsolete.

after seeing https://phenaki.video/

hard to say, ask me again when we see the next generation that surpasses the above.

no way to tell how easy temporal consistency is going to be, bad temporal consistency will relegate it to youtube and 'b-movie'/'low budget TV'

This is not like moving from the 80's into the 90's where bad CG was the best they had and so it was used. This needs to beat out the best of the best CG graphics otherwise the movie will be panned for shitty effects.

it could go through a period in comping and effects. Stuff like 'style matching' two clips that sorts out the lighting and color grade, or adding muzzle flashes and squibs by painting a mask on a keyframe and let the AI handle the rest, so adding to existing structure rather than making it all up wholesale

I suppose soon we'll be seeing a 'whisper' like AI to do auto Audio Description on scenes and acting direction, to caption existing films. (using existing AD could be a good contrastive learning technique)

I said 10 years, but don't think it'll be much more than that.

I think the tech will be capable sooner, but big movie creations times take a while. Couple years for the tech to mature, few years where indie and cutting edge studios experiment, then a couple production lifecycles for it to be full mainstream.

Also the "substantially" criteria is going to be a tricky point, because as the AI tools get better, the less time you will need to spend interacting with them. So the time on conventional tasks decreases in absolute, but remains a high percentage because the total time needed decreases as well.

On the other hand, as AI tools make it easier to make movies, I think there will be a significant increase in both quantity and quality at the indie & amateur level.

The moment you hand the keys to creation to the masses, people will be able to make whatever they want - entirely devoid of subversive political messaging.

At the current speed of things, 3 to 6 years. Great question.

I agree with this only because OP specifically limited their criteria to most big movies, excluding indie.

What’s really going to happen is that everyone will generate their own independent films and eventually no one will pay much attention to big movies anymore. When does that happen? I’d say around 10-15 years before the AI-generated films can truly hang with the big films. But hey I’d rather watch something like Clerks than the latest capeshit anyways… so if AI can generate really good characters, plots, and dialogue in 5 years but is still 5-10 years away from AAA visuals, it won’t matter at all to me.

Yup. That's my view as well. I'm guessing we'll get watchable vidoes maybe within 5 years. And from there it'll be a small niche where people make their own indie movies, but that's not up to hollywood quality just yet. A few years after that I imagine it might be used in hollywood for a movie or two. It'll take a long while before they switch over entirely.

Hard to say, but I'm not expecting it soon.

As soon as you can produce compelling movies through these methods, studios will pop up that do nothing but. They’ll produce tons of them because it’s so cheap and that will get us over 50% in no time.

I mean take a look at the recent Velma, She-Hulk, Santa Inc, and other terrible woke shows or movies. There writing is completely awful compared to ChatGPT. Once we got AI that can make animations, shows, and movies at some point in the future.

Watch Hollywood throw a tantrum on AI, and crumble once people stop watching their movies and shows.

You'll soon hear how people making their own content is literally white supremacy, so just be ready for that.

i don't know about this phenaki thing but imagen video of Google is way way better.

Ten plus. Indie fan movies made for less than a thousand dollars maybe by the end of century. But I doubt we will get there with the current technology. You need better algorithms, software, datasets, and hardware. Maybe even quantum computers.

Weighted average so far, with 312 votes, is 6.78 years. I did the same poll on the machine learning sub and the weighted average there wa 8.19 years with 487 votes, but the post was removed by the mods.

Both measures consider "Never!" as 20 years. I am too mathematically illiterate to come up with a better fix.

imagen does not allow for chaining together prompts, phenaki (also google) does.

If the question is about being able to create full movies then phenaki would be the tech needed to build on because it allows direction of entire scenes via temporally consistent context aware chaining rather than individual shots of concepts

You can't fix missing information. You maybe can state things like: "Of the people that think X will happen within Y years, the average is Z years"

Also 10 or more is not equal to 10.

15 people put never, hahaha that's hilarious. WHY ARE YOU HERE????

oh thank you.